Face it, the Sundance Film Festival is as unpredictable as a surprise winter storm, no matter what the forecasters say.

Year after year, buyers slogging their way up and down the snowy sidewalks of tiny Park City, Utah, bemoan the lack of potential purchases. Yet, year after year, there are high-profile buys and any number of smaller deals.

If there's a common prefest refrain this year, it's that the lineup seems more serious-minded -- more arthouse and less "Little Miss Sunshine." And that makes buyers nervous. Some even wonder if fest organizers are intentionally sending a message that Sundance -- the original U.S. indie showcase -- is returning to its roots, freezing out the more star-laden fare that has turned the event into something of a paparazzi-fueled swag-athon.

Fest director Geoff Gilmore says that's not the case: "I just don't accept that premise. Is the indie arena now something that the major studios are involved in? Absolutely. The two worlds have bled together. We don't set out picking films with an agenda in mind or to create a festival that has a particular message to it."

This go-round, it just so happened that many of the 125 features selected by Gilmore and his programming staff are more personal in nature and/or address social and political issues, including the war in Iraq, the Aids epidemic and the Viet Nam-era Chicago Seven trial.

But with most distributors hunting for potential mainstream crossovers or films with a possible kudo future, will they go for the sort of arthouse titles that pepper the lineup?

"My sense it there might some good movies, but they're small," sniffs one buyer. "It'll probably be a great festival for ThinkFilm, but I'll be surprised if Focus or Vantage or Searchlight buy anything."

Looking back at last year's fest, however, might present some lessons. Take competition film "Half Nelson." Bigger distribs worried the film, about a crack-addicted white teacher played by Ryan Gosling, would be too tough to market. At least one studio specialty label put in a bid but then withdrew it when the deal wasn't immediately sealed. In the end, smaller player ThinkFilm paid a nominal figure for the pic and offered lucrative backend options. Film, which cost $800,000 to make, has become one of the year's top indie hits in terms of critical acclaim and box office take of around $3 million. Gosling also is getting awards attention.

"People backed away because they focused on the difficulties of the story. They forgot to look at the overall picture and what an amazing film it was, and the remarkable performances," says William Morris Independent co-head Rena Ronson, who was one of the sales reps on the film.

"A lot of buyers looked back and realized they made a mistake," says a sales rep. "I'm hoping that because of 'Half Nelson,' people will pick up these smaller indie films and give them a shot."

"It's a really interesting lesson as the bigger distribs get more and more dismissive about the smaller films," adds a specialty pic buyer.

At the other end of the spectrum, specialty distribs concluded that another Sundance '06 pic, "The Illusionist" was too commercial, requiring a wide release. Consequently, Universal jumped in and began negotiating with producers Michael London and Bob Yari.

Ultimately, talks broke down, and Yari decided to release the period drama through his company's fledgling distribution arm. Pic's production budget was $17 million; it went on to gross almost $40 million domestically.

"Buyers are not all that good anymore at predicting what will work in the marketplace," Gilmore says. He adds he's not always that good either, although the marketplace isn't his concern. "We try to offer a broad spectrum, regardless of whether or not films are commercial."

Take this year's competition film "Teeth," Gilmore says, a coming-of-age horror pic about a girl with vagina dentata that features "three plastic penises sitting on the floor" -- not an easy film for a distrib to market, in his opinion.

If there's one point everyone agrees on, it's that there is no way to know a film's true personality until it plays before an audience.

"On paper, the lineup looks very character driven, and that's why seeing it in front of an audience at Sundance is the best way to gauge if there's magic," says Lionsgate senior veep of acquisitions Jason Constantine.

It's also a key reason why producers keep films closely guarded until their fest screenings.

Last year, buyers, just like regular festgoers, got their first glimpse of "Little Miss Sunshine" on the fest's first Friday night. It played well and clinched its eight-figure acquisition price.

Still, buyers continue to underline that this year -- despite buzz for films including opening-night pic "Chicago 10" and competition film "Grace Is Gone" -- there's nothing on the level of "Sunshine."

"There are more unknowns than ever before," says Sony Pictures Classics co-topper Michael Barker. "Last year, going into the festival, there were about four films you knew about that people would go after, and 'Little Miss Sunshine' was one of them. This year, I'm not sure what they are."