Awards Features

TAMARA JENKINS, "The Savages"
Why she'll win: Capturing familial dysfunction in brilliantly nuanced fashion, Jenkins' script has already hooked an L.A. Film Critics and a San Francisco Film Critics Circle award. "Savages" marks a return after nine years, following Jenkins' critically embraced "Slums of Beverly Hills," and the Academy could feel inclined to award the indie vet.
Maybe not: It's one of three Sundance contenders in the category, and the one with perhaps the narrowest audience appeal. Jenkins' tragicomic, all-too-real account of what happens when siblings are summoned to nurse their ailing parent might not be Oscar's flavor this year, with three of the five noms affecting a much lighter look at humanity.
Critical quote: "A longtime resident of New York's East Village whose own father died when she was in her 20s, Jenkins drew inspiration from personal experience. Wendy's life, in particular, seems suspended in a recognizable urban bohemia where it's possible to age without growing up as well as get older while everyone around you seems to stay the same age. This giddy, bittersweet laugh-or-you-might-cry flavor suffuses the movie, making it life-affirming in the most genuine, least sentimental way. It confronts life in all its existential bleakness and finds humor, comfort even joy in small moments," says Carina Chocano, Los Angeles Times.

TONY GILROY, "Michael Clayton"
Why he'll win: Gilroy is a screenwriter's screenwriter, whose soul-scouring drama contains scenes flushed with feisty and soul-searching dialogue not seen much since Peter Finch's flaring "mad as hell" rant in Paddy Chayefsky's Oscar-winning "Network." Gilroy has garnered BAFTA, WGA and DGA noms, and historically the Academy often has loved a strong, character-driven script.
Maybe not: Prior to "Michael Clayton," Gilroy was most associated with the "Bourne" trilogy, which relies more on its action sequences than its dialogue. Voters shouldn't hold that against him, of course, but they might want to see if he can deliver another script on the level of "Clayton" before awarding him an Oscar.
Critical quote: "Tony Gilroy has produced a screenwriter's film, which assumes that people who move through different worlds will alter their speech without losing their idiosyncratic style. Against all Hollywood wisdom, he trusts the audience to enjoy the texture and the power of words," says David Denby, the New Yorker.

DIABLO CODY, "Juno"
Why she'll win: Everybody loves a stripper-turned-screenwriter, including the Golden Globes and Writers Guild, which both stumped for Cody's script with nods in respective categories. And with "Juno's" subtle pro-life message, audiences on both sides of the political spectrum have flocked to the teen preggers film that's eclipsed last year's indie juggernaut "Little Miss Sunshine" at the box office.
Maybe not: Cody penned a script that, while infinitely less saccharine, could be seen as "Dawson's Creek" with morning sickness and a sonogram. It lost the Globe to the Coen brothers' nihilistic bloodbath "No Country for Old Men," and voting members partial to stories bigger than Juno's growing belly might hesitate in awarding two small Sundance comedies two years in a row.
Critical quote: "It's not that Juno treats her pregnancy as a joke, but rather that in the sardonic spirit of the screenwriter, Diablo Cody, she can't help finding humor in it. ... The first time I saw 'Juno,' I was shocked to find myself tearing up at the end, since I'd spent the first 15 minutes or so gnashing my teeth and checking my watch," says A.O. Scott, the New York Times.

NANCY OLIVER, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Why she'll win: The quirky film, whose delusional loner protagonist takes up with a mail-order sex doll, has already snagged screenwriter Oliver (whose previous credits includes "Six Feet Under") WGA, Satellite and Critics' Choice noms and a National Board of Review win (shared with Diablo Cody). Academy members tend to be swayed by sensitive, heartfelt films about mental illness ("Rain Man," "I Am Sam"), and "Lars" explores the subject in a comic way that never stoops to ridicule.
Maybe not: Oliver was ignored by the Globes, and the film is so small that she could be eclipsed by the other pics in the category. Oliver is also a first-time Oscar nominee.
Critical quote: "The film, directed by Craig Gillespie and written by Nancy Oliver ('Six Feet Under'), wisely never goes for even one moment that could be interpreted as smutty or mocking. Its weapon is absolute sincerity," says Roger Ebert, Chicago Sun-Times.