So we're not into predictions here at Variety, and that's not what I'm aiming at with this post.  But I do think it might be worth mulling over the three films Paramount Vantage has primed for major Oscar attention in some sort of level-headed fashion -- because it's been eating at me.

The studio is actually pushing five films for awards this year, but I don't think it's out of the question to overlook "A Mighty Heart" and "Margot at the Wedding" when it comes to Best Picture speculation.  So I will.

As noted last week, "There Will Be Blood" screened Thursday night to a few journos in Los Angeles and we're bound by blood and honor to keep a lid on it.  Fine, fair enough...I'll just let this casual diversion of the conversation to the other two titles say what I'm thinking about the Oscar chances of Paul Thomas Anderson's film -- sans personal opinion.

So we're down to "The Kite Runner" and "Into the Wild."  Both films have their fans, both seem to be the right contenders to hit the soft-spot demographic of the Academy.  It's been a while since I saw each of them, but I have to say that I'm starting to get the feeling Vantage would be better served by shoving all of their efforts behind the latter.

To start, there's a lot of charisma to work with (duh).  Emile Hirsch is the baby face, Sean Penn is the bad-boy actor-turned-director and Eddie Vedder is the grunge frontman considering an appearance in his first music video in 15 years for one of the film's tracks.  Oh, and don't forget loveable Hal Holbrook, who is coming to town in November to spice up the awards campaign.

Vantage is rallying the troops with screenings and events and, frankly, seems to be showing its hand that THIS is their contender.  But "The Kite Runner" hit a little hiccup on the way to a November release date (since pushed to December), so it makes sense that there isn't a lot of smoke around that title just yet.

I'm not a fan of "The Kite Runner" at all, mind you.  I think it is schmaltz of the highest order -- and this comes from a guy who loved "Finding Neverland."  So I'm not a cynical curmudgeon.  It's just too clinical in its tendency to hammer those golden-hued moments and themes, and sue me if I think the Academy would rather go with something that digs a little deeper.  You won't have a hard time finding someone who's seen the film and thinks it is right up the AMPAS' alley, but I'm skeptical.

I'm also no fan of "Into the Wild," by the way.  How's that for disclosure?  I loved, loved, LOVED Jon Krakauer's book, but thought Sean Penn's passion for Chris McCandless overshadowed craft and technique in the end.  But that's what the Academy loves so much, right?  Passion?  You can't take that away from the film, and from a guy who thought it wasn't really in the race upon seeing the final product, I have to say it's looking like a top tier candidate lately.