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Wednesday, February 13, 2008

Is boredom Miramax's worst enemy?

I didn't come across this until yesterday, but Sasha Stone keyed in to something pretty interesting in one of her "State of the Race" columns a few days ago.

In this final week of balloting, could the consistency of award wins for "No Country for Old Men" deter voters who long for something fresh this Oscar season?

Take a look at what Stone was thinking:

The year began with No Country for Old Men and is poised to end with No Country for Old Men. It is a film that has withstood all criticisms like teflon. But that was before it met the Academy. AMPAS has their own way of doing things, which is probably the reason No Country for Old Men, despite winning virtually every major guild award so far, stands to be upset by either Juno or Michael Clayton or the darker horse, There Will Be Blood. It stands to be upset for no other reason than this: by the time the ballots are turned in, boredom has set in.

Boredom is the thing that will often get a child into a trouble, lead an otherwise respectable woman astray, put a sensible man in harm’s way, not to mention what it can do to Academy voters and the fans who watch them. Boredom is the only thing that can derail No Country of Old Men, which is headed for the biggest awards win since American Beauty. Return of the King lost the WGA, Brokeback Mountain did not win the SAG ensemble.

I think it is a valid point.  What's more, at this moment, you can see the wheels turning and the campaign in action.  Agression is good, but with all of Paramount Vantage's milkshakes and all of Fox Searchlight's "'Juno Jargon Jenerators,'" Miramax is devouring the publicity circuit for its film like no other competitor.

Immediately after the nominations were announced, the studio set up a crafts Q&A with key below-the-line players.  Just two days ago, NPR was canvassed with a three-way as interviews for Javier Bardem, Scott Rudin and Joel and Ethan Coen seemed to dominate the station's programming.

The campaign is so out in the open, in fact, that David Poland recently called the film "the Cynthia Swartz Lovechild of the season."  When a film's Oscar strategist is spotlighted like that -- and I'm no expert here -- I don't think that's a good thing.

Poland went on to note that "'Lord of the Rings:  Return of The King,' 'Titanic,' 'American Beauty,' 'Schindler's List,' and 'Forrest Gump' are the only start-to-finish frontrunners to survive in the last 20 years."  So is "No Country" the start-to-finish frontrunner?

Not exactly, because the media blew a lot of hot air into the "Atonement" balloon early on.  But aside from that, the Coens' film has been considered, in some quarters, "the one to beat" since its October release and was championed as a critical fave contender since way back at Cannes.

Variety's own Anne Thompson covered the film's release plan last week in an article that, frankly, seemed a bit "right place, right time."  It was a great read from Anne, as always, but a column like that really pulls back the curtain and shows the strings.  A film that didn't reflect the awards push template suddenly seemed like an awards push from the beginning, no?

All the while, the film has been taking award after award after award.  "No Country" doesn't even need the ACE's Eddie Award to tie a record with the industry, as only one other film has ever won the DGA, PGA, WGA and SAG Ensemble awards ("American Beauty" in 1999).  Add to that the USC Scripter Award and the critical kudos and it becomes quite obvious that the film is in no short supply of laurels and acclaim.

Neither was "Brokeback Mountain," which, ironically enough, lost out in the end to another "Cynthia Swartz Lovechild" -- Lionsgate's "Crash."

No one can take away what "No Country" has accomplished this season.  If nothing else, it is important for the Coen brothers, two of the country's finest craftsmen, to finally get the awards recognition they deserve.  But an Oscar race is a funny thing, and the Academy has shown us time and time again that it will not be told what to write on that ballot.

You can't stop what's coming.  But there are also no clean getaways.

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Kristopher TapleyRed Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email Kristopher Tapley

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