I haven't had my eyes fixed upon an awards calendar or anything recently (believe it or not), so the fact that the National Board of Review is announcing their top 10 films of the year and list of categorical winners on Wednesday completely caught me by surprise this week.  But I guess it is that time of year.

Say what you will about this easily swayed group of east coasters (the running joke is that the spoils go to the studio that pays the most for catering), their annual announcement is the first word on the film awards season, and groups take note thereafter.  Nicole Kidman and Halle Berry first saw their campaigns pick up steam here for "Moulin Rouge!" and "Monster's Ball" respectively.

The NBR top ten list tends to include at least four of the eventual five Best Picture nominees, and, as Awards Daily points out, the 2004 and 2005 lists included all five.  The only winners of the Best Picture award since 1987 to miss out on an Oscar nomination were "Quills" and "Gods and Monsters."

Who knows how this thing will shake out?  I have my ideas, but I could be totally off base.  They tend to like sexy time at the NBR ("Quills," "Brokeback Mountain," "Kinsey), and they are fine with championing GLBT-centric filmmaking ("Brokeback," "Chuck & Buck," "Gods & Monsters," "The Hours").  But one can never tell who's spending the most this year or that, so we'll have to wait and see.

After Wednesday's awards, the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association won't be far behind.  Then it really starts to get crazy.

Welcome to December.