There's been plenty of discussion throughout the years of the Independent Spirit Awards as something of a "death kiss" for Oscar hopefuls.  Bill Murray's triump for Best Actor in "Lost in Translation" led to a Sean Penn/"Mystic River" victory lap the next night.  The "Sideways" crew dominated at the Spirits, but only took down the Best Adapted Screenplay trophy at the Oscars.

Just last year, "Litle Miss Sunshine" was the evening's victor and was still on plenty of prediction lists for Oscar's big prize.  Nope.

Another example might be Julianne Moore's victory for for Todd Haynes' "Far From Heaven."  And speaking of Haynes, Cate Blanchett is nominated this year for the director's "I'm Not There."  She is likely to take home the bacon tonight, yet she is heavily favored to win the Oscar as well.  Hm.

Perhaps the biggest indication that there may be something to all of this is 2005's race, which saw a win for Ang Lee's "Brokeback Mountain" at the Spirits.  We all know how that one turned out.  And the only exception to all of this seems to be Charlize Theron's win of both Best Actress statuettes in 2003 for her performance in "Monster."

Anyway, to commemorate this -- um -- "rule," for lack of a better word, Mark Olsen has tossed together a photo gallery of the most apparent examples.  Take a look.

The film in the stickiest situation here is obviously Jason Reitman's "Juno," which is likely to sweep through the show tonight like wildfire.  And yet, just like last year, the film is on a number of prognosticators' lists to take the big prize at the Kodak.

Will the rule hold true?  Time will tell.