Oscars 2009???
The year-round Oscar game is a tough road to hoe, something I abandoned a few years back. But it's always fun to stake a claim early in the year and see how first impressions do or don't pan out for Oscar glory.I generally get into year-in-advance predictions over at my own digs the day after the Oscar ceremony, but I thought I'd make my first post of the new year here at Red Carpet District the net's first piece of 2008 Oscar speculation.
Of course, no one in their right mind thinks they can foresee how an Oscar season will turn out this far away from the dance. "Sure things" turn into awards duds ("Alexander," "The Shipping News") and unseen contenders fly out of the blue as a matter of course ("Million Dollar Baby"). Likewise, campaigns can work wonders for a film otherwise considered a stretch for Oscar, while other times the Academy just does what it wants to do and no one can see it coming the day before nominations are announced.
It's not a science. But it is fun.
That said, I wouldn't want to ruffle the feathers of those who think us lowly Oscar bloggers are raping and pillaging the filmmaking form by tossing around ideas such as this, so I'll leave it with a modest list of titles I'm personally keeping my eye on for next year's ceremony:
• “The Argentine”/“Guerilla” (Focus Features)
• “Australia” (20th Century Fox)
• “Body of Lies” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
• “Changeling” (Universal Pictures)
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount Pictures)
• “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage Pictures)
• “Frost/Nixon” (Universal Pictures)
• “The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency” (The Weinstein Company)
• “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)
• “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks SKG)
I'm being pretty reserved by keeping it to 10, and really it's 11 with Steven Soderbergh's Che double dip. There are a number of titles bouncing around inside my head to say the least, but we'll see how this list changes as we get closer to the more detailed look ahead at that other site. Regardless, here's hoping 2008 is as cinematically satisfying as 2007 was.
Happy New Year. (And go Trojans!)
Red Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email 
You better add Michelle Pfeiffer onto the Best Actress list. Cheri is being released in December and its a Dangerous Liaisons collaboration again.
Posted by: Dek | 5/26/2008 2:22:14 PM
"Blindness" (Miramax Films).
Posted by: Mahavishnu | 1/21/2008 6:10:09 AM
Sigh. Same question comes up every year. It's nothing more than the sheer fun of it, Martie, and it's taken too seriously by those who think WE'RE taking it too seriously. Chill out.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | 1/6/2008 11:35:21 AM
"Australia" just finished filming, "The Reader" hasn''t even finished. Kidman hasn''t even filmed her part yet. How can you predict these films? Just because of the production company? Quite frankly, with Nicole Kidman''s track record lately, I wouldn''t bet too much on these. Some camps were predicting big things for Birth, but the 10 year old boy thing pretty much ruined that. In "The Reader" it''s an affair with a 15 year old. Maybe the artsy type will go for it, but middle America? Not so much.
Posted by: Martie | 1/6/2008 6:52:07 AM
"Australia" just finished filming, "The Reader" hasn''t even finished. Kidman hasn''t even filmed her part yet. How can you predict these films? Just because of the production company? Quite frankly, with Nicole Kidman''s track record lately, I wouldn''t bet too much on these. Some camps were predicting big things for Birth, but the 10 year old boy thing pretty much ruined that. In "The Reader" it''s an affair with a 15 year old. Maybe the artsy type will go for it, but middle America? Not so much.
Posted by: Martie | 1/6/2008 6:51:35 AM
Looking forward to seeing AUSTRALIA - great team of Baz Luhrmann, Nicole Kidman, and Hugh Jackman and the natural beauty of this faraway land.
Posted by: Jo | 1/3/2008 4:19:35 PM
It's so good to see "Australia", "The Reader", "Revolutionary Road" and "Body of Lies" on the list! Nicole Kidman and Leonardo Dicaprio rules!
Posted by: Mii | 1/2/2008 11:42:48 AM
"The Duchess" with Keira Knightley and Ralph Fiennes for the Brit spot? Paramount Vantage have already released a teaser trailer. Looks good and early word is positive.
Posted by: Liz | 1/2/2008 8:09:08 AM
With Spielberg getting The Trial of the Chicago Seven prepped for an early spring start of production, I could easily see it coming out in fall/winter and changing the race a great deal.
Posted by: Alexander | 1/2/2008 2:30:02 AM
Certainly for Moore, perhaps a script or director scenario, but I'm not sure a film like that seems like Best Picture material. We'll see, though -- certainly nothing is in stone.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | 1/1/2008 11:38:46 PM
No room for Blindness?
Posted by: Ivich | 1/1/2008 10:22:16 PM