Oscars 2009???
The year-round Oscar game is a tough road to hoe, something I abandoned a few years back. But it's always fun to stake a claim early in the year and see how first impressions do or don't pan out for Oscar glory.I generally get into year-in-advance predictions over at my own digs the day after the Oscar ceremony, but I thought I'd make my first post of the new year here at Red Carpet District the net's first piece of 2008 Oscar speculation.
Of course, no one in their right mind thinks they can foresee how an Oscar season will turn out this far away from the dance. "Sure things" turn into awards duds ("Alexander," "The Shipping News") and unseen contenders fly out of the blue as a matter of course ("Million Dollar Baby"). Likewise, campaigns can work wonders for a film otherwise considered a stretch for Oscar, while other times the Academy just does what it wants to do and no one can see it coming the day before nominations are announced.
It's not a science. But it is fun.
That said, I wouldn't want to ruffle the feathers of those who think us lowly Oscar bloggers are raping and pillaging the filmmaking form by tossing around ideas such as this, so I'll leave it with a modest list of titles I'm personally keeping my eye on for next year's ceremony:
• “The Argentine”/“Guerilla” (Focus Features)
• “Australia” (20th Century Fox)
• “Body of Lies” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
• “Changeling” (Universal Pictures)
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount Pictures)
• “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage Pictures)
• “Frost/Nixon” (Universal Pictures)
• “The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency” (The Weinstein Company)
• “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)
• “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks SKG)
I'm being pretty reserved by keeping it to 10, and really it's 11 with Steven Soderbergh's Che double dip. There are a number of titles bouncing around inside my head to say the least, but we'll see how this list changes as we get closer to the more detailed look ahead at that other site. Regardless, here's hoping 2008 is as cinematically satisfying as 2007 was.
Happy New Year. (And go Trojans!)
Red Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email 
Dark Knight for best picture :) Heath Ledger should win something as well...
Posted by: Jamie | 1/21/2009 2:59:52 AM
Dark Knight for best picture :) Heath Ledger should win something as well...
Posted by: Jamie | 1/21/2009 2:59:51 AM
How on earth can a comic book adaptation be up for best picture?
And how can a sociopath be lauded by people as a good actor? Ledger was just playing himself
Posted by: averill | 12/15/2008 5:55:43 PM
Don't you find it wierd that all of the past 15 or 16 comments have all supported Dark Knight for Best Picture in less than an hour apart? Of course, this comment is just one more to add to that list: Dark Knight for Best Picture!
Posted by: The Real Thing | 11/30/2008 5:02:30 PM
Wow, quite a crowd there, ladies and gentlemen. Fortunately for you, I am not here to talk politics; I've got the radio to do that. Why I am here then? Like all of those other weirdos that had accumulated recently, I want Dark Knight to win Best Picture. However, you are kind of on your own for this one.
Posted by: Rush Limbaugh | 11/30/2008 4:58:02 PM
Dark Knight! Dark Knight! Dark Knight! Dark Knight! Dark Knight! Dark Knight! Dark Knight! Dark Knight!
Posted by: Jordan | 11/30/2008 4:55:52 PM
DK for BP! That's my motto for the year!
Posted by: Maria | 11/30/2008 4:54:48 PM
You heard the man! This Country should be voting for Best Picture; not just the academy! Let's all rally up to see to it that our favorite movies count for the BP nom! I vote for Dark Knight!
Posted by: Drake | 11/30/2008 4:54:01 PM
I agree! Dark Knight for BP!
Posted by: Kibo | 11/30/2008 4:52:37 PM
All those reviews for Dark Knight are very interesting. Therefore, I'll put it plain and simple: Dark Knight for Best Picture!
Posted by: Michael LaSalle | 11/30/2008 4:51:52 PM
Actually, I like this movie quite a bit. Definitely a thousand times better than No Country for Old men or Crash or Million Dollar Baby! BAH! Those movies sucked, man. I hated those movies (not that I prefered Brokeback Mountain though; I hate that movie too). The last definite Best Picture winner in my opinion was The Return of the King back in 2003. So why award Dark Knight for Best Picture? Because it is the greatest film of the year! Period! Not even an opinion but imperial fact! I'm right! You're wrong! If you do not agree with me, I suggest you get your brain checked or something (after all, guess who America actually voted for President; people are absurd and retarded. End of story). Therefore, if you want my advice, award Dark Knight with Best Picture or else!
Posted by: The Dark Knight | 11/30/2008 4:51:01 PM
I am your almighty God of Christ! You must do as I command and award Best Picture to the Dark Knight! If you do not comply, I shall rain fire down across the globe!
Posted by: The Almighty One | 11/30/2008 4:46:08 PM
As you know, I have heard from a very reliable source, who told me that he saw with his own eyes, The Dark Knight in the Imax theater as everybody remained in awe, from beginning to end. The film Academy handing out the oscars posseses a certain, mechanical, device; a device that they consistantly use to accumulate power by preventing superhero movies, animated films, science fiction and our people from ever winning an oscar for Best Picture. Yes, I am here to announce that the Dark Knight deserves to win, along with Spike Lee, WALL-E, and Iron man as the leading oscars in 2009. Why, back in 1991, neither Beauty and the Beast nor Boyz in the Hood had never ever won a Best Picture Oscar. You don't need to take my word for it; MY INFORMATION COMES FROM A HIGHER SOURCE!
Posted by: Lucas Farakahn | 11/30/2008 4:44:21 PM
I'm sorry but, I'm having a hard time typing this...ypk edad, kj war kjjyfy. Sorry. There we go. I disagree and disapprove with everything Obama had said. After all, he is a socialist. But we must take time and reach out for the people that want us dead if this Country is to survive. So I'm glad that Obama and I were able to agree on a common topic: That the Dark Knight deserves to be awarded for Best Picture. Now we are closer than ever to successfully reaching out to the Democrats in good faith.
Posted by: John McCain | 11/30/2008 4:37:38 PM
I don't know what happened to my previous comments; it didn't, uh...make it through I guess. I just hope, besides change, uh...that nobody read it. Sorry. Oh, and Dark Knight for Best Picture!
Posted by: Barack Obama | 11/30/2008 4:33:38 PM
I hate Barack Obama. He has turned the entire nation against what this country is supposed to represent: Freedom, liberty and capitalism above all socialists. You people ought to be ashamed of yourself. However, there is something you people might do to reconsile for your electing a facist: Awark the Dark Knight with the Academy Award for Best Picture and then vote Sara Palin for President in four years and then this country shall see it's salvation reborn.
Posted by: Abe Lincoln | 11/30/2008 4:25:05 PM
If this ceremony does not nominate Dark Knight for Best Picture, then I'm boycotting the entire Academy, period! I am sick and tired of some of the greatest films of the year always being ignored over films that nobody cares to even see in the theater. Oh, and I'm not the world famous, liberal wacko critic everybody hates with all their heart. I just like Dark Knight so much.
Posted by: Rodger Ebert | 11/30/2008 4:21:58 PM
Yeah, I agree. If the Dark Knight gets an oscar nomination, then I'll watch the oscars. Otherwise, the Academy might as well blow me.
Posted by: wikimaster | 11/30/2008 4:19:41 PM
If Dark Knight does not win Best Picture, then the Oscars is 50% overated. Not being nominated means 85%. If some crappy, liberal movies like Milk, W, or what else have you, it doesn't matter if Dark Knight was nominated or not, it is 100% BS. End of story.
Posted by: El Draco | 11/30/2008 4:18:16 PM
Dark Knight wins Best Picture. Nominees may include WALL-E, Iron Man and Australia but Dark Knight better wins.
Posted by: Mickey | 11/30/2008 4:16:24 PM
Dark Knight deserves to win a collosal number of oscars:
Picture, Director, Writing, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, Effects, Sound, Cimetography, Sound Editing, Make-up, Art Direction. Perhaps nods for all the other main actors besides Bale and Ledger as well.
That way, the film would win and be nominated for more oscars than any other film in history. Truly the Dark Knight rocks!
Posted by: Gordanator | 11/30/2008 4:14:59 PM
what about slumdog millionaire
Posted by: John | 11/27/2008 1:37:12 PM
the reader or revolutionary road...any of the two..
Posted by: jenina | 11/8/2008 1:01:05 AM
The Dark Knight best picture!
Heath Ledger best supporting role for Joker!
Posted by: Nex | 8/27/2008 12:14:28 PM
Don't forget about the Dark Knight.
Posted by: Cassie Layne | 7/20/2008 12:38:50 PM
You better add Michelle Pfeiffer onto the Best Actress list. Cheri is being released in December and its a Dangerous Liaisons collaboration again.
Posted by: Dek | 5/26/2008 2:22:14 PM
"Blindness" (Miramax Films).
Posted by: Mahavishnu | 1/21/2008 6:10:09 AM
Sigh. Same question comes up every year. It's nothing more than the sheer fun of it, Martie, and it's taken too seriously by those who think WE'RE taking it too seriously. Chill out.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | 1/6/2008 11:35:21 AM
"Australia" just finished filming, "The Reader" hasn''t even finished. Kidman hasn''t even filmed her part yet. How can you predict these films? Just because of the production company? Quite frankly, with Nicole Kidman''s track record lately, I wouldn''t bet too much on these. Some camps were predicting big things for Birth, but the 10 year old boy thing pretty much ruined that. In "The Reader" it''s an affair with a 15 year old. Maybe the artsy type will go for it, but middle America? Not so much.
Posted by: Martie | 1/6/2008 6:52:07 AM
"Australia" just finished filming, "The Reader" hasn''t even finished. Kidman hasn''t even filmed her part yet. How can you predict these films? Just because of the production company? Quite frankly, with Nicole Kidman''s track record lately, I wouldn''t bet too much on these. Some camps were predicting big things for Birth, but the 10 year old boy thing pretty much ruined that. In "The Reader" it''s an affair with a 15 year old. Maybe the artsy type will go for it, but middle America? Not so much.
Posted by: Martie | 1/6/2008 6:51:35 AM
Looking forward to seeing AUSTRALIA - great team of Baz Luhrmann, Nicole Kidman, and Hugh Jackman and the natural beauty of this faraway land.
Posted by: Jo | 1/3/2008 4:19:35 PM
It's so good to see "Australia", "The Reader", "Revolutionary Road" and "Body of Lies" on the list!
Nicole Kidman and Leonardo Dicaprio rules!
Posted by: Mii | 1/2/2008 11:42:48 AM
"The Duchess" with Keira Knightley and Ralph Fiennes for the Brit spot? Paramount Vantage have already released a teaser trailer. Looks good and early word is positive.
Posted by: Liz | 1/2/2008 8:09:08 AM
With Spielberg getting The Trial of the Chicago Seven prepped for an early spring start of production, I could easily see it coming out in fall/winter and changing the race a great deal.
Posted by: Alexander | 1/2/2008 2:30:02 AM
Certainly for Moore, perhaps a script or director scenario, but I'm not sure a film like that seems like Best Picture material. We'll see, though -- certainly nothing is in stone.
Posted by: Kristopher Tapley | 1/1/2008 11:38:46 PM
No room for Blindness?
Posted by: Ivich | 1/1/2008 10:22:16 PM