In his annual pre-Oscar column, LA Times film critic Kenneth Turan has called a vote for "Michael Clayton" a vote for Hollywood itself, and "Thoughtful, adult studio films."  He says a vote for "No Country for Old Me," on the other hand, is a vote for the Hollywood art film, and in writing as much, he has me wondering if there might be an upset in the works after all.

Take a look:

A victory for this smart and suspenseful legal thriller would be more than a vote for the only one of the five to be distributed by an actual studio. It would be a vote for a beautifully remodeled classic studio picture, an impressively updated version of the kind of movie "they just don't make anymore."

All the elements of vintage Hollywood filmmaking are present and accounted for in "Michael Clayton," starting with writer-director Tony Gilroy's heightened and dramatic dialogue. Add to that the ability of a peerless cast, including George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton, to animate characters who are at once familiar archetypes and completely individual. Finally, there's Gilroy's instinct for the emotional jugular, a storytelling panache that is almost a lost art all by itself.

Is Turan predicting "Clayton" here?  I'm not sure.  However, I must say, I still don't understand this mentality that Tony Gilroy's film, though expert in its genre, is anything more than passable as a work of "great" cinema.  Perhaps I'm alone, and regardless, the industry has proven itself head over heels for the effort, so maybe...just maybe...Warner Bros. can catch the world off guard tomorrow night and steal one away from Miramax, the Coen brothers, Cynthia Swartz and Scott Rudin.

We'll see.

The truth is, this has been the race since day one following the nominations announcement.  All other comers are mere pretenders in the face of a battle between big studio and modest specialty division.  This is the race.  These are the players.

Check out the rest of Turan's column.