Paramount Vantage has lept out of the gate this year with the release of materials for both of its fall awards hopefuls.  The trailer for "The Duchess" landed a few weeks ago, and now we get this look at Edward Zwick's "Defiance."

The film is based on the true story of three brothers that escaped Nazi-occupied Poland and joined Russian resistance forces in the Belarussian forest to protect themselves and others.  Daniel Craig, Liev Schreiber and Jamie Bell star.

Ed Zwick cinema has become something of a chore as of late.  Arguably lazy efforts like "The Last Samurai" and "Blood Diamond" didn't work on countless levels, but his films still manage to find a place during the Oscar season.  I don't expect "Defiance" to be any masterpiece, but I do get the feeling it might be somewhat more elevated material than we've seen out of the director in recent years.

This looks to be Vantage's lead pony in the 2008-2009 derby, though there is still the outside possibility the studio will pick up Barry Levinson's "What Just Happened?" at Sundance.  If that comes to pass, and the film works (it's an Art Linson lovechild that just might be a great piece of reflexive cinema), then strategies could certainly change.  Regardless, the studio's focus looks to be much more narrowed come next season, and I'm sure the awards consultants on Melrose are just fine with that.

Check out the 'Defiance' trailer at Yahoo! Movies.

The year-round Oscar game is a tough road to hoe, something I abandoned a few years back.  But it's always fun to stake a claim early in the year and see how first impressions do or don't pan out for Oscar glory.

I generally get into year-in-advance predictions over at my own digs the day after the Oscar ceremony, but I thought I'd make my first post of the new year here at Red Carpet District the net's first piece of 2008 Oscar speculation.

Of course, no one in their right mind thinks they can foresee how an Oscar season will turn out this far away from the dance.  "Sure things" turn into awards duds ("Alexander," "The Shipping News") and unseen contenders fly out of the blue as a matter of course ("Million Dollar Baby").  Likewise, campaigns can work wonders for a film otherwise considered a stretch for Oscar, while other times the Academy just does what it wants to do and no one can see it coming the day before nominations are announced.

It's not a science.  But it is fun.

That said, I wouldn't want to ruffle the feathers of those who think us lowly Oscar bloggers are raping and pillaging the filmmaking form by tossing around ideas such as this, so I'll leave it with a modest list of titles I'm personally keeping my eye on for next year's ceremony:

•  “The Argentine”/“Guerilla” (Focus Features)
•  “Australia” (20th Century Fox)
•  “Body of Lies” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
•  “Changeling” (Universal Pictures)
•  “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount Pictures)
•  “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage Pictures)
•  “Frost/Nixon” (Universal Pictures)
•  “The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency” (The Weinstein Company)
•  “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)
•  “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks SKG)

I'm being pretty reserved by keeping it to 10, and really it's 11 with Steven Soderbergh's Che double dip.  There are a number of titles bouncing around inside my head to say the least, but we'll see how this list changes as we get closer to the more detailed look ahead at that other site.  Regardless, here's hoping 2008 is as cinematically satisfying as 2007 was.

Happy New Year.  (And go Trojans!)