It may have surprised more than a few people when Variety decided to go all out and introduce an Oscar blog to the Award Central section of the site (hi, nice to see ya, how are ya).  Well, believe it or not, staffer Justin Chang has beaten everyone to the punch -- even those ever-forecasting amateur Oscar watchers -- with a look ahead at what we might expect at next year's Oscar ceremony.

Well, almost everyone.

But seriously, this is the first full-blown article on the 2008-2009 Oscar season that I've come across.  It's a thorough piece, well-researched but perhaps a little too dependent on the obvious stuff.  There's little room made for potential surprise contenders, but let's face it, you can't see what's coming any more than you can stop it (hehe).  Chang nonetheless offers that "Experience warns us not to count too heavily on the so-called 'sure things,' as left-field surprises always have a way of sneaking in, but a handful of projects sure sound promising."

From your mouth to God's ears.  Here's a look at more:

Considering Scott Rudin produced "No Country" and exec produced "There Will Be Blood," this year's top nomination-getters, his upcoming slate is a good place to start. Assuming voters don't get it confused with last year's "Reservation Road," Paramount's "Revolutionary Road" would seem to have a clear path into awards season. Directed by Oscar winner Sam Mendes ("American Beauty"), pic reunites much-nominated, never-victorious "Titanic" stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet in a 1950s marital drama adapted from the Richard Yates novel...

Two thesps who drew early kudos buzz this season seem like possible contenders for next year's actor race: Benicio Del Toro as Che Guevara in "The Argentine," the first in Steven Soderbergh's two-part study of the Cuban revolutionary; and Frank Langella, reprising his Tony-winning performance as President Nixon in Ron Howard's screen adaptation of "Frost/Nixon."

And later:

"Mystic River" winner Sean Penn could end up back on the ballot for "Milk," about gay-rights activist Harvey Milk, who was assassinated by a fellow San Francisco politician (played by Josh Brolin) at the height of his popularity. The Gus Van Sant-helmed project beat out a rival biopic from director Bryan Singer.

But Singer won't be empty-handed this fall. His "Valkyrie," which stars Tom Cruise in a historical thriller about a plot within the German army to assassinate Hitler, marks a reunion between Singer and "Usual Suspects" scribe Christopher McQuarrie.

And finally, what we've all been thinking:

The death of Heath Ledger has also amped up curiosity over his turn as the Joker in Warners' "The Dark Knight," stirring speculation about a posthumous supporting nom.

But there are a ton of titles mentioned.  Solid work throughout.  Give it a look.

•  Tom O'Neil has a little inside scoop from yesterday's National Society of Film Critics awards voting. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone, meanwhile, perhaps jumps the gun by insisting "There Will Be Blood" is the Best Picture frontrunner (with nothing to go on but critical awards and one nomination in the guild arena thus far). [Awards Daily]

•  Speaking of which, Ed Pilkington sits down with "Blood" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson. [Guardian]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks "Sweeney Todd" with the "affable" Tim Burton. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Oscar season gets a hard look from the Gray Lady's critics, starting with a love letter to "Zodiac" from Manohla Dargis. [New York Times]
    
     Dargis' original review of the film dated Mar. 2, 2007. [New York Times]

•  A.O. Scott, meanwhile, digs back into Alexander Supertramp and "Into the Wild." [New York Times]
    
     Scott's original review of the film, dated Sept. 27, 2007. [New York Times]

•  And Stephen Holden goes "Across the Universe" one more time for good measure (thinking a little more outside the Oscar box than his colleagues). [New York Times]
    
     Holden's original review, dated Sept. 14, 2007. [New York Times]

•  David Carr, meanwhile, takes a look at the WGA strike's implications on Oscar. [New York Times]

•  And finally, Caryn James digs into the career of Best Actor hopeful George Clooney. [New York Times]

•  Some photos from thee Palm Springs International Film Festival, well underway. [The Envelope]

•  First looks at Demian Bichir in next year's Oscar hopefuls "The Argentine" and "Guerilla" (both from Steven Soderbergh). [Ain't It Cool News]

The year-round Oscar game is a tough road to hoe, something I abandoned a few years back.  But it's always fun to stake a claim early in the year and see how first impressions do or don't pan out for Oscar glory.

I generally get into year-in-advance predictions over at my own digs the day after the Oscar ceremony, but I thought I'd make my first post of the new year here at Red Carpet District the net's first piece of 2008 Oscar speculation.

Of course, no one in their right mind thinks they can foresee how an Oscar season will turn out this far away from the dance.  "Sure things" turn into awards duds ("Alexander," "The Shipping News") and unseen contenders fly out of the blue as a matter of course ("Million Dollar Baby").  Likewise, campaigns can work wonders for a film otherwise considered a stretch for Oscar, while other times the Academy just does what it wants to do and no one can see it coming the day before nominations are announced.

It's not a science.  But it is fun.

That said, I wouldn't want to ruffle the feathers of those who think us lowly Oscar bloggers are raping and pillaging the filmmaking form by tossing around ideas such as this, so I'll leave it with a modest list of titles I'm personally keeping my eye on for next year's ceremony:

•  “The Argentine”/“Guerilla” (Focus Features)
•  “Australia” (20th Century Fox)
•  “Body of Lies” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
•  “Changeling” (Universal Pictures)
•  “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount Pictures)
•  “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage Pictures)
•  “Frost/Nixon” (Universal Pictures)
•  “The No. 1 Ladies Detective Agency” (The Weinstein Company)
•  “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)
•  “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks SKG)

I'm being pretty reserved by keeping it to 10, and really it's 11 with Steven Soderbergh's Che double dip.  There are a number of titles bouncing around inside my head to say the least, but we'll see how this list changes as we get closer to the more detailed look ahead at that other site.  Regardless, here's hoping 2008 is as cinematically satisfying as 2007 was.

Happy New Year.  (And go Trojans!)