There's been plenty of discussion throughout the years of the Independent Spirit Awards as something of a "death kiss" for Oscar hopefuls.  Bill Murray's triump for Best Actor in "Lost in Translation" led to a Sean Penn/"Mystic River" victory lap the next night.  The "Sideways" crew dominated at the Spirits, but only took down the Best Adapted Screenplay trophy at the Oscars.

Just last year, "Litle Miss Sunshine" was the evening's victor and was still on plenty of prediction lists for Oscar's big prize.  Nope.

Another example might be Julianne Moore's victory for for Todd Haynes' "Far From Heaven."  And speaking of Haynes, Cate Blanchett is nominated this year for the director's "I'm Not There."  She is likely to take home the bacon tonight, yet she is heavily favored to win the Oscar as well.  Hm.

Perhaps the biggest indication that there may be something to all of this is 2005's race, which saw a win for Ang Lee's "Brokeback Mountain" at the Spirits.  We all know how that one turned out.  And the only exception to all of this seems to be Charlize Theron's win of both Best Actress statuettes in 2003 for her performance in "Monster."

Anyway, to commemorate this -- um -- "rule," for lack of a better word, Mark Olsen has tossed together a photo gallery of the most apparent examples.  Take a look.

The film in the stickiest situation here is obviously Jason Reitman's "Juno," which is likely to sweep through the show tonight like wildfire.  And yet, just like last year, the film is on a number of prognosticators' lists to take the big prize at the Kodak.

Will the rule hold true?  Time will tell.

Obivously a send-up, but this kind of thing is why Jason Reitman kicks so much ass and, as long as he keeps that golden sense of humor about him, will have a long and fruitful career.  LOVE it (thanks to Gold Derby):

I was talking to a savy fellow journalist at the Scripter ceremony Saturday night whol told me, at least in his view, Jason Reitman might have a better shot at winning Best Director than many give him credit for.  That may or may not be true.  He used the Marcia Gay Harden comparison, a contender who wasn't recognized throughout the season, suddenly scored a bid and reminded voters how they can award the film in a big way.  I'm not personally of the mind that Reitman has a snowball's chance, but it's good to have varrying opinions, no?

Anyway, my colleague mentioned Reitman's Walmart commercial at the time, and I had actually forgotten about that little jewel entirely.  The spot ran during the 2006 holiday season and, though it was advertisement for the devil incarnate, it's still a creative piece of work.

Here it is, entitled "12 Minutes":

Actress in a Leading Role  Ellen Page
Directing  Jason Reitman
Best Picture  Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
Writing (Original Screenplay)  Written by Diablo Cody

1979-2008

•  Phil Gallo rounds up a list of 2008 Oscar factoids here at homebase. [Variety]

•  Calling from Rome regarding his Best Director nomiantion, Julian Schnabel has this bit of dry excitement for Paula Schwartz: "They're going to buy me a bottle of champagne and we're going to act like we're excited." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Another rudimentary list of nominee reactions, but with some fresh faces nonetheless: Scott Rudin and Andrzej Wajda among them. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, thinking outside the box as always, ponders the Top 10 Oscar Talking Points of yesterday's goings on. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine asks the brothers Coen about Oscar nominee "Roderick Jaynes." [Vulture]

•  Peter Martin thinks "There Will Be Blood" is one Oscar nomination short of its destiny, thank you very much. [Cinematical]

•  Boy, T.L. Stanley really hates "Juno." [Gold Rush]

•  No, she really hates "Juno." [Gold Rush]

•  Ramin Satoodeh, meanwhile, chalks Jason Reitman's Best Director nomination for "Juno" up as the morning's most surprising nominee. [The Gold Digger]

•  Pete Hammond has his own idea of the surprises, and calls the Best Makeup showing for "Norbit" his "favorite nom of the day."  Here's hoping Pete's winning sense of humor is shinging through there. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil pours over the various guild misteps this season, where Oscar prognostication is concerned. [Gold Derby]

•  Anthony Breznican and Susan Wloszczyna dig into "the long strange Oscar season" of 2007. [USA Today]

•  And Gary Strauss rounds up Oscar's snubs. [USA Today]

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.