Well, the first two surprises of the night (one of them a true shocker) have landed.  The guys are PISSED about "Transformers" missing Best Visual Effects (told you -- net geeks).  "Sweeney Todd" also upset "There Will Be Blood" for Best Art Direction (though we ran out of time to discuss it), while the night's first acting honor was also handed out.  Here's what we had to say.

By the way, according to Robert, what Javier Bardem basically said in Spanish was, to his mother, "this is for my parents, this is for my grandparents, your parents, this is for Spain," etc.

Makeup Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
Visual Effects John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier

•  Sasha Stone thinks "No Country for Old Men" is on the "Return of the King" trajectory.  Well, it's also kind of the "Brokeback Mountain" trajectory, so let's not do summersaults yet. [Awards Daily]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds to the "news" that the WGA Stike might be very close to a thing of the past. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Michael Cieply is hot on the case at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Tom O'Neil has the skinny on who's skipping Oscar's nominees luncheon. [Gold Derby]

•  Breaking down one of the visual effects shots from "Transformers." [The Envelope]

Art Direction  Dennis Gassner (Art Direction); Anna Pinnock (Set Decoration)
Visual Effects  Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood

Sound Editing  Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins
Sound Mixing  Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin
Visual Effects  Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier

The Features department continues to plough exhaustively through the season, this week spotlighting the sound mixers, sound editors and visual effects artists.  There's also a roundup of contending producers.

Additionally, you'll find a phase one wrap-up that starts with a look behind the veil at the Academy's preferential voting process.  Peter Debruge follows that up with a look at the Academy's short film categories, and the philosophy that those arenas are considered an "incubator for future talent" by AMPAS.

Finally, the issue closes on an interesting piece about the "controversial, unexpected or downright puzzling" endings of films such as "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Atonement," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood."  Andrew Barker has the byline.

(Post edited with correct attribution.  I got so used to seeing McNary's by-line on breaking news this week that I gave him this one, too.  Oops!)

Variety's David S. Cohen has the scoop on the Visual Effects Society nominations, which were dominated by "Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End."  The third installment in the trilogy took down six nods, while "Transformers" and "I Am Legend" weren't far behind with five.

"I Am Legend?"  Really?  For video game villains?

Anyway, those three vote hogs are each competing with "The Golden Compass" and "Spider-Man 3" in the Society's top award category, Best Visual Effects in a Visual Effects Driven Motion Picture.

Other nominations of interest included "Zodiac" finding room in the Best Supporting Visual Effects in a Motion Picture category.  Well deserved.  If you've ever investigated the work that went into recreating the era, you'd agree.  The film received one other nomination, for Best Created Environment in a Live Action Motion Picture (where "Sweeney Todd" surprisingly finds its only mention).

The biggest surprise might be the fact that AMPAS visual effects bake-off contender "300" managed only one nomination, for Best Single Visual Effect, while other bake-off contenders "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "Evan Almighty" turned up a goose egg.

Here are the full nominees.

•  AMPAS narrows Best Visual Effects down to seven. [Variety]

•  BAFTA nominated five foreign language films. [Variety]

•  Sasha Stone calls Jodie Foster the year's "silent standout" in "The Brave One." [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil and Pete Hammond look at the lead acting contenders in a podcast. [Gold Derby]

•  David Poland sizes things up in the his first Oscar column of 2008, calls the season "one of the most legitimately competitive" seasons in a long time. [Movie City News]

•  Meanwhile, the Gurus o' Gold are back with scattered opinions. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers takes a look ahead to the Best Actress race of 2008. [The Film Experience]

•  Scott Bowles runs through the acting frontrunners, but gets a few journos on the record touting contenders not to be forgotten. [USA Today]

•  New York Magazine keeps its own FYC train moving along.  This week: Edgar Wright's "Hot Fuzz." [Vulture]

•  Matt Zoller Sitz plays psychiatrist to Paul Thomas Anderson's genius. [New York Times]

•  Oh, and in case your head has been in the sand, Huckabee and Obama won in Iowa. [MSNBC]

First and foremost, a happy and safe New Year to you all.  With 2008 coming in, oh, about fifteen and a half hours (for us west coasters, anyway), I thought it would be beneficial to offer up a list of important dates.  A lot of key events are slated for the next few weeks and the Oscar season will pretty much be full steam ahead from here on out.

The guilds are the focus of January, all of which are more likely to forecast the Oscar situation more than any critics group thus far, of that you can be sure.  Taking a measure of the guilds is key when it comes to gauging apparent disinterest ("Cold Mountain") or surprising unanimity for films that might have otherwise been considered far-fetched in the big race ("Capote," "Little Miss Sunshine").

Here's what to look for next month:

January 3: Five finalists for USC Scripter award announced.
January 7: BFCA hosts the Critics Choice Awards (Live on VH1).
January 7: VES nominees announced (Visual Effects Society).
January 7: ASC theatrical and TV nominees announced (American Society of Cinematographers)*
January 8: DGA feature film nominees announced (Directors Guild of America).
January 9: Winners of USC Scripter awards announced.
January 10: CAS nominees announced (Cinema Audio Society).
January 10: DGA documentary nominees announced.
January 10: WGA screen nominees announced (Writers Guild of America).
January 11: ACE nominees announced (American Cinema Editors).
January 11: ADG announces nominees (Art Directors Guild).
January 12: AMPAS nominations polls close, end of Oscar voting.
January 13: HFPA hosts Golden Globe Awards (Live on NBC...maybe).
January 14: PGA motion picture and long-form television nominees announced. (Producers Guild of America).
January 16: AMPAS announces seven bake-off finalists for Best Visual Effects category.
January 16: BAFTA nominations announced (British Academy).
January 18: CDG nomees announced (Costume Designers Guild).
January 22: Oscar nominees announced for the 80th Annual Academy Awards (Live on E!, et al).
January 26: DGA Awards.
January 27: SAG Awards (Live on TNT, except on west coast).

Whew.  Hope you're ready...

*This is listed as "week of" at the ASC's official website, so expect a date to be nailed down in due time.

I came across this little story by our own Tim Gray today and it stoo out to me as something to keep in mind.  After all, with all the prognosticating and vacuum-inhabiting ponderings, it's worth taking into account who is actually voting for Oscars:

The Oscarcast always provides surprises, but the biggest surprise about the organization is that it's so consistent.

Just before the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences mailed out Oscar ballots on Wednesday, the org finalized tallies for each branch, taking into account new members, deaths, dropouts and those who chose to go into retired-membership status.

Since the 2006 mailing, the number of voters has actually dropped -- by exactly one.

There were 5,830 voters last year; unsurprisingly, each branch was stable in its numbers. Six of the 16 branches recorded a slight increase; the biggest jump was in the visual effects branch, which inched up by nine voters.

Of the branches that saw slight decreases, the biggest drop was in the art directors branch, which by coincidence dropped nine.

Variety has the story.  The 15 films eligible for January's bake-off are:

"Beowulf"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Evan Almighty"
"The Golden Compass"
"Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix"
"I Am Legend"
"Live Free Or Die Hard"
"National Treasure: Book Of Secrets"
"Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End"
"Ratatouille"
"Spider-Man 3"
"Sunshine"
"300"
"Transformers" 
"The Water Horse"

I have to say, I'm somewhat surprised that "Sweeney Todd" didn't at least make this initial list of 15.

Anyway, I've been getting a weird feeling lately that "The Water Horse" could pop up and surprise as the third nominee in this category.  Everyone pretty much concedes that "Transformers" is in (and likely the eventual winner), while some think sequel fatigue could hurt "Pirates" or "Spider-Man 3."  But surely one of those will get in, right?

I'm thinking the third might come down to "The Golden Compass," "Live free or Die Hard" or "The Water Horse," judging from the branch's typicalities.  Though "300" slipping in certainly wouldn't surprise.

Hey, maybe those seven will be next week's bake-off finalists.

•  The "Eye on the Oscar" features look to film music... [Variety]

•  ...and visual effects. [Variety]

•  Will the industry really turn down the chance to get loaded on NBC's dime? [Variety]

•  Susan Thea Posnock talks to "Eastern Promises" star Viggo Mortensen. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley thinks the Bay area critics picked the wrong western. [Gold Rush]

•  David Poland has a chat with Chicago Film Critics nominee Leslie Mann. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ramin Satoodeh attends the NYC premiere of "There Will Be Blood." [The Gold Digger]

•  New York Magazine takes a stab at predicting the Golden Globe nominees. [Vulture]

•  So does Tom O'Neil. [Gold Derby]

•  Lou Lumenick takes a Catholic Bishop to task regardin ghte message of "Juno."  Only in Oscar season, folks. [New York Post]

•  59 songs make the Oscar "short" list.  Pick three. [The Envelope]

•  Rachel Abramowitz talks to the "Bucket" boys, Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Oprah Winfrey splits her advocacy between a presdential candidate and an Oscar contender. [USA Today]

•  Paramount mouthpiece Harry Knowles sees "Sweeney Todd," calls it Tim Burton's best film since "Ed Wood." [Ain't It Cool News]

•  Reactions from Anne Thompson and Sasha Stone. [Thompson on Hollywood, Awards Daily]

•  James Rocchi talks to Jeffrey Wells about a variety of issues surrounding the upcoming Oscar season. [Cinematical]

•  Susan King talks to Jason Bateman about his work in comedy contender "Juno." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Susan Wloszczyna previews the two-sided holiday movie season and all it's awards hopefuls. [USA Today]

•  Bob Welkos talks to Oscar telecast producer Gil Cates about the WGA strike and it's potential effect on the show. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil catches flak for his brazen "'Sweeney Todd' will win Best Picture" prediction from Lou Lumenick. [New York Post]

•  Two reporters get by-lined in a story that states the obvious: studios hope fall awards product will click financially. [Wall Street Journal]

•  "Once" starts the season off with its first award, at Moscow's 2Morrow Film Festival. [Variety]

•  The Visual Effects Society tap Spielberg for lifetime achievement award. [Variety]

•  The Motion Picture Sound Editors, meanwhile, will hand Michael Bay their Golden Reel Filmmaker Award. [Variety]