Well, the first two surprises of the night (one of them a true shocker) have landed.  The guys are PISSED about "Transformers" missing Best Visual Effects (told you -- net geeks).  "Sweeney Todd" also upset "There Will Be Blood" for Best Art Direction (though we ran out of time to discuss it), while the night's first acting honor was also handed out.  Here's what we had to say.

By the way, according to Robert, what Javier Bardem basically said in Spanish was, to his mother, "this is for my parents, this is for my grandparents, your parents, this is for Spain," etc.

•  George Clooney: Oscar prognosticator. [Time]

•  Andy Trudeau profiles the Oscar nominated scores once again -- always a delight. [NPR]

•  Sasha Stone previews tomorrow's Independent Spirit Awards. [Awards Daily]

•  David Carr verbally spars with Paul Thomas Anderson at last night's Paramount Vantage party... [The Carpetbagger]

•  ...then he makes his final calls in the main categories. [New York Times]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, too, goes on the record as well. [The Film Experience]

•  Meanwhile, Jeffrey Wells drinks milshakes 45 or 55 feet away. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland wraps up the Oscar season.  As usual, he's not surprised by the way the year has rolled out. [Movie City News]

•  Gary Dretzka looks at Oscar-nominated films centered on Iraq. [Movie City News]

•  New York Magazine seems to think Javier Bardem has it in the bag. [Vulture]

•  Finally, Gina Piccalo writes up the whole affair as Hollywood's "holiday." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Anne Thompson writes up Saturday night's Art Directors Guild Awards. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Rachel Abramowitz checks in with Tom Wilkinson, enjoying his great winter romance with the screen. [The Envelope]

•  David Carr explains the fascination with Oscar. [The Carpetbagger]

•  David Denby hearts the Coen brothers. [New Yorker]

•  Sasha Stone points us to the AP's Oscar week countdown. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil concocts some Best Actor odds, wonders if George Clooney can pull an upset (uh...no). [Gold Derby]

•  Kim Voynar takes a stab at predicting the Oscar outcome... [Cinematical]

•  ...and explains why the Best Foreign Language Film category is something of a, well...a joke this year. [Cinematical]

(A piece regarding last night's ACE awards will be on the way later in the afternoon.  Lots of fun, lots to discuss.  Sorry for the delay.)

I came across this earlier today at Awards Daily and just had to toss it up.  To my mind, it is the sweetest FYC ad I've seen this year, which may or may not have something to do with the fact that "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" is my favorite flick of the season.  But I like the feel of this ad and would have liked to have seen more of this throughout the film's campaign:



Check out my Variety profile of Casey Affleck here (pre-nominations).

Actor in a Supporting Role Casey Affleck
Cinematography Roger Deakins

There's a really fun feature Variety cranked out this week for the Eye on the Oscars: The Actor/Actress issue that gives some added voices to various contenders and their chances.  It's a why and why not scenario for each nominee's hopes, plus a critical quote for added measure on each.  Yours truly wrote up the supporting actors.

Oh, I suppose I shouldn't forget the lede, which is kind of a cross-section of performances that walked a fine line between getting charismatic characters just right and flying off the rails of histrionics in 2007.  Also written by your truly.

Meanwhile, there's a "down to the wire" showcase, featuring four stories to sooth your Oscar sweet tooth in the coming weeks.  Jennifer Hutt gets into theps taking on dialect coaches to assist in their award-nominted portrayals, while Justin Chang digs into next year's crop of contenders, believe it or not (more on that in a moment).

There's also an interesting take on the editorial style of "There Will Be Blood" from David Bordwell, as well as an interesting Iain Blair story about some unusual places where you might unexpectedly find an Oscar.

•  Ryan Adams posits the Oscars as a repeat of the Super Bowl, with "No Country" repping the undefeated Pats and "Atonement," should it take down a BAFTA victory, standing in for those Cinderella G-Men. [Awards Daily]

•  The sound crew from "No Country" continues to make the rounds. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells chimes in on the Weinstein strategy for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" -- free "reel" in copies of yesterday's Variety. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone ponders the evergreen question: Who really marks up these ballots every year? [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens looks at the year's Grammy nominated film music, including work from Glen Hansard ("Once") and Eddie Vedder ("Into the Wild"). [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Vedder, New York Magazine isn't keen on Pearl Jam's latest pro-Obama track. [Vulture]

•  The Buzzmeter favors "No Country," save a select few holdouts. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil takes note. [Gold Derby]

•  Yes, the biggest Hollywood party of the year has been cancelled. [New York Times]

•  Mark Olsen sits down with Oscar nominee (and dark horse supporting actor contender) Casey Affleck. [The Envelope]

•  Donn Freydkin sits down with Javier Bardem in one of a slew of interviews the actor has been giving in recent weeks. [USA Today]

Actor in a Supporting Role Hal Holbrook
Film Editing Jay Cassidy

Actor in a Supporting Role  Phillip Seymour Hoffman

It seems that the only film to receive multiple acting nominations was "Michael Clayton," which garnered three citations for George Clooney, Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson.  That has to be a first, though I haven't dug into researching that notion.

•  Sasha Stone digs uop the International Film Music Award nominees.  Alexandre Desplat leads the pack. [Awards Daily]

•  Keeping things intresting during the Oscar season, The Envelope launches a nifty new Sundance section for full coverage. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil wonders if the DGA's deal with the producers is the lifeline Gil Cates and the Oscar ceremony was banking on. [Gold Derby]

•  Noah Forrest cranks out a personal Oscar ballot full of unique and inspired choices. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, meanwhile, has his own ballot for the acting contenders.  He says to hell with a supporting actor campaign on Casey Affleck's performance in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford."  Lead all the way, baby. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine is high on Imelda Staunton's "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" turn (also showing up on Rogers' ballot). [Vulture]

•  David Poland talks with "Juno" star Ellen Page. [The Hot Blog]

•  Alexandra Peers has the scoop on Julian Schnabel's latest art exhibit, "Navigations," amidst critical and industry kudos for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [Vulture]

•  Dave Karger sits down with "In the Valley of Elah" and "No Country for Old Men" star Tommy Lee Jones. [Entertainment Weekly]

•  NBC is set to loose a bundle due to cancellation of the Golden Globes telecast. [Wall Street Journal]

•  The soundtrack to "Juno" lands at #8 on the Billboard charts. ("Sonic Youth sucks.  It's just noise.") [Extended Play]

•  The People's Choice Awards weren't much of a hit with the "people." [Variety]

•  "No Country" wins yet another Best Picture award, this time from the Online Film Critics Society. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells is four-square behind "I drink your milkshake" as a marketing must for Paramount Vantage's "There Will Be Blood" Oscar campaign. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland talks to "Sweeney Todd" helmer Tim Burton. [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers launches a new podcast series, beginning with the heart-stopping Marisa Tomei.  (Hey, she stops my heart.) [The Film Experience]

•  Oh yeah...Gurus 2.0. [Movie City News]

Variety looks at the acting races this weekend with an Awards Season Focus: 10 stories, all built around the thespians.

To kick it off, Stu Levine surveys the dark horse Oscar hopefuls that grabbed Golden Globe nominations, James McAvoy ("Atonement") and Helena Bonham Carter ("Sweeney Todd") among them.  But it begs the question, and not just for the dark horses that already need all the publicity they can get: Will contenders simply be hurting themselves by not showing up?  The dress rehearsal for Oscar is always the acceptance speech at a Golden Globe ceremony, so...just sayin...

Anyway, continuing, Robert Hofler gets into comedic performances getting the shaft, while Peter Debruge takes a healthy look at critical consensus building for various portrayals.  Despite consensus, however, Robert Abele wonders whether old-timers like Frank Langella ("Starting Out in the Evening") or youthful hopefuls like Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") could step in and surprise a la Adrien Brody's 2002 victory for "The Pianist."

There's also a great piece from Sandee Angulo Chen about the modern abandonment of Method acting technique, but take a look at the full range of stories, there's plenty to chew on.

First and foremost, a happy and safe New Year to you all.  With 2008 coming in, oh, about fifteen and a half hours (for us west coasters, anyway), I thought it would be beneficial to offer up a list of important dates.  A lot of key events are slated for the next few weeks and the Oscar season will pretty much be full steam ahead from here on out.

The guilds are the focus of January, all of which are more likely to forecast the Oscar situation more than any critics group thus far, of that you can be sure.  Taking a measure of the guilds is key when it comes to gauging apparent disinterest ("Cold Mountain") or surprising unanimity for films that might have otherwise been considered far-fetched in the big race ("Capote," "Little Miss Sunshine").

Here's what to look for next month:

January 3: Five finalists for USC Scripter award announced.
January 7: BFCA hosts the Critics Choice Awards (Live on VH1).
January 7: VES nominees announced (Visual Effects Society).
January 7: ASC theatrical and TV nominees announced (American Society of Cinematographers)*
January 8: DGA feature film nominees announced (Directors Guild of America).
January 9: Winners of USC Scripter awards announced.
January 10: CAS nominees announced (Cinema Audio Society).
January 10: DGA documentary nominees announced.
January 10: WGA screen nominees announced (Writers Guild of America).
January 11: ACE nominees announced (American Cinema Editors).
January 11: ADG announces nominees (Art Directors Guild).
January 12: AMPAS nominations polls close, end of Oscar voting.
January 13: HFPA hosts Golden Globe Awards (Live on NBC...maybe).
January 14: PGA motion picture and long-form television nominees announced. (Producers Guild of America).
January 16: AMPAS announces seven bake-off finalists for Best Visual Effects category.
January 16: BAFTA nominations announced (British Academy).
January 18: CDG nomees announced (Costume Designers Guild).
January 22: Oscar nominees announced for the 80th Annual Academy Awards (Live on E!, et al).
January 26: DGA Awards.
January 27: SAG Awards (Live on TNT, except on west coast).

Whew.  Hope you're ready...

*This is listed as "week of" at the ASC's official website, so expect a date to be nailed down in due time.

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

We're anxiously awaiting the SAG announcement, but in the meantime...

•  Hilton Als calls "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" a "visual essay about physical and spiritual isolation," compares the film to Elaine Scarry's "The Body in Pain."  Heavy. [The New Yorker]

•  Golden Globe nominee Tom Hanks apparently tells unruly and disrespectful MySpacers to go f*** themselves. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Todd Martens gets "Juno" composer Mateo Messina to answer a few queries about his experimental score and, of course, working in the shadow of Sonic Youth and the Kinks on the film's soundtrack. [Extended Play]

•  Sasha Stone thinks it might be time to take "Charlie Wilson's War" seriously again.  Eh. [Awards Daily]

•  Speaking of which, here's yet another pre-release piece on the film. [USA Today]

•  Ramin Satoodeh points us to David Ansen's mixed-bag top 10 list (and his own to boot). [The Gold Digger]

•  The strike gives David Cronenberg second thoughts about attending the Golden Globes -- he expects to be a no-show. [Gold Rush]

•  New York Magazine stretches for a story by indicating rash of recent pregnancies as perhaps detrimental to the awards success of "Juno." [Vulture]

•  BUT, they also start a cool "For Your Consideration" feature.  This week" McLovin' for Best Supporting Actor. [Vulture]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

The New York Film Critics Circle had absolutely no surprises in store today, handing "No Country for Old Men" four awards, including one for Best Pic.

Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert Elswit represented Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood," which swept the LA critics' awards yesterday, while Julie Christie positioned herself again as the competition for Marion Cotillard in the Best Actress race (where's Ellen Page been this whole time?).  Amy Ryan also continues to scorch the earth as THE supporting actress frontrunner of the year.

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was surprisingly snubbed throughout.  Nothing, also, for Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," a Gotham film if there ever was one.  The director did, however, pick up a lifetime achievement award.

This weekend's activity and today's awards have put "No Country' and "Blood" at the top of everyone's rontrunner lists for Oscar, two brutal, cold films that are not the Academy pedigree at all.  But perhaps the critics will muscle them into the dance if this continues to be the case, each of them constantly duking it out.  Tomorrow, the Broadcast Film Critics Association announces its list of nominees, always a pretty good indication of where the Academy will ultimately go.

The full list of NYFCC winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Cinematographer: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Documentary: "No End in Sight"
Best First Film: Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"
Best Animated Film: "Persepolis"
Best Foreign Film: "The Lives of Others"
Lifetime Achievement Award: Sidney Lumet
Special Critics' Award: Charles Burnett, "Killer of Sheep"

More of these!

The Washington, D.C. critics voted today, giving their Best Picture honors to "No Country for Old Men."  So in one day, it's the Coens vs. P.T.A across four awards-giving bodies.  INTERESTING.

Here's the full list of D.C. winners

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Best Ensemble: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Breakthrough Performance: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Foreign Language Film: "The Diving Bell and The Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Sicko"
Best Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd:The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

So that's 3 for 4 for Amy Ryan today.  I didn't see that coming, I have to say.  Aaron Sorkin's win for "Charlie Wilson's War" is a bit out of left field, given that "No Country for Old Men" racked up three other wins (including a second score for ensemble acting).

No precursor love so far for "Atonement" and "American Gangster."

The Envelope grabbed the scoop on the LAFCA winners.

First and foremost, Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood" got a giant kiss and a HUGE Oscar boost from the group, taking down four wins, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor.

There was no love for "No Country for Old Men," which stuns me, frankly.  Not even in the runner-up arenas.  I spoke to a colleague last week who predicted the critics groups might shy away from the film with the NBR tapping it as the best film of the year, but I shrugged that thought off in a hurry.

Anyway, regardless of all of that, this show of solidarity for Anderson's film is significant to say the least.  The film came pretty close to sweeping, grabbing three runner-up mentions in addition to the four wins.

Also, Amy Ryans grabbed her third supporting actress win in as many awards announcements.  Nothing so far for the perceived frontrunner coming into the season, Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (aside from a runner-up mention from the LAFCA).

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" looks to have been the group's second-place fave, coming in just behind "Blood" in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  And as expected, the LAFCA went against the grain (typically willful) by going with Vlad Ivanov's supporting performance in "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days."  It's a good choice, because Ivanov is so unsettling in the film.

Variety has a write-up.  Here's the full list of winners:

Best Picture: "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening")

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
(runner-up: Anamaria Marinca, "4 Months, 3 Months and 2 Days")

Best Supporting Actor: Vlad Ivanov, "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
(runner-up: Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild")

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
(runner-up: Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There")

Best Screenplay: Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
(runner-up: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Animation: (tie -- boooo) "Persepolis"/"Ratatouille"

Best Foreign Language Film: "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
(runner-up: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Documentary/Non-fiction Film: "No End in Sight"
(runner-up: "Sicko")

Best Production Design: Jack Fisk, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Dante Ferretti, "Sweeney Todd")

Best Music: Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, "Once"
(runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
(runner-up: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Douglas Edwards Indie Award: "Colossal Youth" directed by Pedro Costa 

Best Career Achievement: Sidney Lumet

Another Variety supplement dropped today, the Eye on the Oscars: The Actor issue, to be exact.  There's a boatload of actor profiles, both for main contenders and for dark horse hopefuls.  Check it out.

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

•  David Carr runs some insular Times commentary regarind the L.A. premiere of "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Dissecting the potential "domestic strife" in screenwriter Diablo Cody's life via her tattoos.  Are we really going there? [The Envelope]

•  Todd Martens on intimate concert shindigs in lieu of sending music to Academy members. [The Envelope]

•  Sam Adams talks to the elusive Eddie Vedder about the tracks in "Into the Wild." [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to our own Anne Thompson about the Oscar derby. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone cleans up her NBR predictions. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley takes the measure of Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Terrence Howard's double-dipping potential. [Gold Rush]

•  David lunch talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ben Kawaller solicits some interesting comments from Tim Burton. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick starts his Oscar overview, focusing on the big races... [New York Post]

•  ...and follows it up with some other ponderings in his blog. [New York Post]

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

More viral marketing from Warner Bros. for 2008's "The Dark Knight."

In today's Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope, it seems "Juno" has moved into the top five Best Picture considerations, while Paul Dano has lept up into the supporting actor fray.

I'm tempted to go along with the latter once again (while I've already been on board for the former) because it seems to be, if anything, a situation where an explosive leading performance pulls the supporting portrayal along for the awards ride -- no matter the perception out there that Dano might be somewhat out of his league.

It seems to recall Ethan Hawke's nomination alongside Denzel Washington in "Training Day."  Though, in this viewer's mind, Hawke's performance there has only been matched by his work this year in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Other buzz gainers include JamesMcAvoy and Vanessa Regrave for "Atonement" and Ridley Scott for "American Gangster."  Mike Nichols took a tumble in the director ranks for "Charlie Wilson's War" and, indeed, his film only show up in one other category chart: Best Supporting Actor, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Take a look at the update.  I'm thinking about gathering up all the info from the Gurus o' Gold, the Sultans of Bling and the Buzzmeter to see what an overall consensus would look like.

Jeez, I totally just sounded like a dork.

No news out there today...holiday week...

•  Tom O'Neil takes us back to 1998. [Gold Derby]

•  David Poland has lunch with "Into the Wild" contender Hal Holbrook. [The Hot Blog]

•  Susan Wloszczyna offers an orientation to the daemons of "The Golden Compass." [USA Today]

•  Sasha Stone on Julia Roberts' Oprah appearance. [Awards Daily]

•  Anne Thompson chimes in with some things she learned froma  second look at "There Will Be Blood" Monday night. [Thompson on Hollywood] 

•  Sasha Stone senses a John Cusack surge on the horizon. [Awards Daily]

•  Lisa Rosen spotlights baddies at the Oscars, though it's becoming apparent that The Envelope is churning out TOO MUCH awards content.  Slow down! [The Envelope]

•  Susan King talks to Phil Bosco. [The Envelope]

•  David Poland was ALSO at the "Sweeney Tease" in NYC. [The Hot Blog]

•  Jeffrey Wells comments on Tom O'Neil's reaction to the 17 minutes of footage. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick agrees with the select few who think "Beowulf" won't land in the animated final three. [New York Post]

•  Peter Knegt takes a stab at predicting the top nine categories. [indieWIRE]