You can get your predictions fix in a thousad different quarters this weeekend. There's David Carr, David Poland, the Gurus o' Gold, Gurus 2.0, the Buzzmeter, hell, even George Clooney has taken a stab. And don't forget Sasha Ston'e mega-compilation chart, which rounds up a ton of voices for your perusing delight.The reason that the shockeroos occur is because Hollywooders are a bull-headed, contrary-minded lot and often they don't tip their cards. They also don't like to admit that they're going against the pack — everybody's got to be a team player, after all — but, alone at home where no one is looking and with sly smirks on their faces, they fool Oscarwatchers now and then by checking off their ballots for Marcia Gay Harden or Juliette Binoche.
• David Carr camps out at the Four Seasons, chats it up with a veritable who's who of the Oscar strategist spectrum. [The Carpetbagger]BEST ACTOR: George Clooney, Michael Clayton
"Oh, I know Daniel Day-Lewis has all the momentum -- but Jesus, what was that movie about? It scared me! His mustache scared me! And what the hell is he talking about milkshakes for if he's an oilman? I liked Johnny Depp as Sweeney Razorhands -- oh, no, wait, different movie -- and I turned Eastern Promises off after the second cut throat, so good luck Viggo Mortensen. I love Tommy Lee, but who the hell saw that movie? Heck, who can pronounce it? And Clooney is a real old-school movie star; heck, he must be good if they named the movie after his character!"
• Anne Thompson writes up Saturday night's Art Directors Guild Awards. [Thompson on Hollywood]
• With the Indie Spirits fast approaching, Anne Thompson points us to an interview with "I'm Not There" casting director Laura Rosenthal. [Thompson on Hollywood]
There's a really fun feature Variety cranked out this week for the Eye on the Oscars: The Actor/Actress issue that gives some added voices to various contenders and their chances. It's a why and why not scenario for each nominee's hopes, plus a critical quote for added measure on each. Yours truly wrote up the supporting actors.
Wading back out into the Oscar waters for post-nominations coverage is Variety's Features department, this weekend spotlighting the nominees in a few of the major races and a look at critical praise for nominated thesps.
• David Poland is none too pleased with The Hollywood Reporter's handling of that Sean Young thing. I don't think it's worth this much fuss, but to each his own. [The Hot Blog]
I sort of stopped reading David Edelstein's New York Magazine blog, The Projectionist, because -- well -- he just didn't update enough. But I came across his reaction to yesterday's Oscar nominations via Nathaniel Rogers' Film Experience Blog this morning. Glad to see he's still generating some web content.The announcement of the Academy Award nominations is always the saddest day of the year, not because the voters’ choices are lousy (although they tend to be) but because so many worthy movies suddenly lose their luster. As long as the potential for a nomination exists, attention will be paid. Once the field dwindles, audiences desert the also-rans faster than you can say “Fred Thompson.” And it’s on to DVD…
What of the rest? The Academy went with the critics in giving No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood its love, but my hunch is that neither has many enthusiastic supporters among the voters and will split the vote anyway. Too grim, too weird. Atonement would have been perfect Oscar bait if it had been any good. Michael Clayton is terrific — but is it too conventional a conversion melodrama? Could Juno squeak through? Diablo Cody might be one doodle that can’t be undid.
• Sasha Stone digs uop the International Film Music Award nominees. Alexandre Desplat leads the pack. [Awards Daily]
• More awards talk from The Paper of Record as Dennis Lim digs into the audio details and silent eccentricities of the "No Country for Old Men" soundtrack... [New York Times]
Variety looks at the acting races this weekend with an Awards Season Focus: 10 stories, all built around the thespians.
• Tom O'Neil has a little inside scoop from yesterday's National Society of Film Critics awards voting. [Gold Derby]
• Sasha Stone, meanwhile, perhaps jumps the gun by insisting "There Will Be Blood" is the Best Picture frontrunner (with nothing to go on but critical awards and one nomination in the guild arena thus far). [Awards Daily]
• Speaking of which, Ed Pilkington sits down with "Blood" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson. [Guardian]
• Jeffrey Wells talks "Sweeney Todd" with the "affable" Tim Burton. [Hollywood Elsewhere]
• The Oscar season gets a hard look from the Gray Lady's critics, starting with a love letter to "Zodiac" from Manohla Dargis. [New York Times]
Dargis' original review of the film dated Mar. 2, 2007. [New York Times]
• A.O. Scott, meanwhile, digs back into Alexander Supertramp and "Into the Wild." [New York Times]
Scott's original review of the film, dated Sept. 27, 2007. [New York Times]
• And Stephen Holden goes "Across the Universe" one more time for good measure (thinking a little more outside the Oscar box than his colleagues). [New York Times]
Holden's original review, dated Sept. 14, 2007. [New York Times]
• David Carr, meanwhile, takes a look at the WGA strike's implications on Oscar. [New York Times]
• And finally, Caryn James digs into the career of Best Actor hopeful George Clooney. [New York Times]
• Some photos from thee Palm Springs International Film Festival, well underway. [The Envelope]
• First looks at Demian Bichir in next year's Oscar hopefuls "The Argentine" and "Guerilla" (both from Steven Soderbergh). [Ain't It Cool News]
• AMPAS narrows Best Visual Effects down to seven. [Variety]
The hunt for the Best Actor trophy has been an interesting one all year long.
• Rainn Wilson will be stepping in for Sarah Silverman as host of the IFP Awards. [Variety]
• "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac" top a critics poll of the year's best. [indieWIRE]
The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit. The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.
On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture. The film led the pack with four nods altogether.
Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.
Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run. I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.
Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category. So we might have those arenas sewn up. The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS. With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").
Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists. The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.
The full list of nominees:
Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"
Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"
Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"
Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"
Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"
We're anxiously awaiting the SAG announcement, but in the meantime...
Red Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email Kristopher Tapley