The night's two biggest awards are handed out as "No Country for Old Men" takes Best Picture and Best Director(s).  The Coens become the only duo to ever win Best Director and Scott Rudin finally gets his Oscar.  So that's a wrap, and a rather unsurprising one at that (despite Rudin's attempt at modesty).  Here's how we wrapped things up at The Movie Blog.

Alright, I'm going to head out for now and do some socializing.  I'll be back either late this evening or in the morning to wrap the night up.

I have to say, kudos to Greg Ellwood and Sheigh Crabtree for doing such a great job in rounding up a wide array of voices for this year's Buzzmeter at The Envelope.  I think the collective has been more accurate than other such experiments this season, and now, the final tally has been revealed.

There aren't many surprises to be had on the whole, but you'll be interested to find some singular shockers.  Like Tom O'Neil's prediction that George Clooney will trump Daniel Day-Lewis in the Best Actor rave, for instance.  Creative Screenwriting's Jeff Goldsmith went a little crazy in the animated feature race, picking "Persepolis" over "Ratatouille," while local journo Sam Rubin goes REALLY wild, taking Jason Reitman for a stunner in Best Director.

Check it all out here.

•  With the Indie Spirits fast approaching, Anne Thompson points us to an interview with "I'm Not There" casting director Laura Rosenthal. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Sasha Stone takes in the IMDb polls to get a leg up on predicting who's going to win what. [Awards Daily]

•  Oh, but wait -- she finds another poll with an even bigger pool of participants from AOL. [Awards Daily]

•  Jeffrey Wells also digs that eleventh hour "Jesse James" ad for Casey Affleck. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Dennis Lim writes up the largely fresh crop of helmers nominated for Best Director this year. [The Envelope]

•  Now that yesterday's big wave of confirmed Oscar presenters has been revealed, Tom O'Neil ponders who will present what. [Gold Derby]

•  In case you missed it, David Carr looks into the field of lead actor contenders and thinks against the grain of the Day-Lewis foregone conclusion. [The Carpetbagger]

•  John Horn spends some quality time with Best Adapted Screenplay nominee Sarah Polley. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Meanwhile, source authors for much of the year's contenders get noe respect, says Daniel Ulin. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Mat Fraser isn't too happy with BAFTA brass feeling "uncomfortable" with screening Richard Butchins' "The Last American Freak Show." [Guardian]

•  From the weekend, David Gritten wonders whether Daniel Day-Lewis is a considerable talent or merely a ham. [Daily Telegraph]

Actor in a Leading Role Daniel Day-Lewis
Art Direction Jack Fisk (Art Direction); Jim Erickson (Set Decoration)
Cinematography Robert Elswit
Directing Paul Thomas Anderson
Film Editing Dylan Tichenor
Best Picture JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
Sound Editing Christopher Scarabosio and Matthew Wood
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

(This wraps up our nominees series.  Hopefully it brought back some good memories for viewers and voters alike.  Four more days until polls close!)

We all knew who the WGA winners were going to be, given the slip up with announcing the nominees in order of vote tally.  But I decide to hit the beach for the early part of this weekend, and BAFTA goes and shoots its accidental load all over the net.

Tom O'Neil is pointing us to BAFTA's website announcing the winners in advance, and Sasha Stone is doing the same.  "Atonement," of course, will be taking Best Film, while Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") took top acting honors.  The Coen brothers willt ake Best Director.

"Will take."  I sound like I'm Nostradamus.  But hey, apparently, it's true!

I was talking to a savy fellow journalist at the Scripter ceremony Saturday night whol told me, at least in his view, Jason Reitman might have a better shot at winning Best Director than many give him credit for.  That may or may not be true.  He used the Marcia Gay Harden comparison, a contender who wasn't recognized throughout the season, suddenly scored a bid and reminded voters how they can award the film in a big way.  I'm not personally of the mind that Reitman has a snowball's chance, but it's good to have varrying opinions, no?

Anyway, my colleague mentioned Reitman's Walmart commercial at the time, and I had actually forgotten about that little jewel entirely.  The spot ran during the 2006 holiday season and, though it was advertisement for the devil incarnate, it's still a creative piece of work.

Here it is, entitled "12 Minutes":

Actress in a Leading Role  Ellen Page
Directing  Jason Reitman
Best Picture  Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
Writing (Original Screenplay)  Written by Diablo Cody

(To put a face to the season beyond the coverage, I thought I'd introduce this little series.  Nothing special, just the trailers from each of the nominated films.  A couple a day.  We'll start things out with the "frontrunner.")



Directing  Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Actor in a Supporting Role  Javier Bardem
Cinematography  Roger Deakins
Film Editing  Roderick Jaynes
Best Picture  Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
Sound Editing  Skip Lievsay
Sound Mixing  Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)  Written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

•  David Carr live blogs last nights SAG Awards with his special breed of insight and commentary. [The Carpetbagger]

•  T.L. Stanley does the same. [Gold Rush]

•  Wait, so does Lou Lumenick. [New York Post]

•  Deborah Netburn was also hot on the case.  Live-blogging is so "in" again.  [The Envelope]

•  David Poland kinda-sorta responds to the festivities. [The Hot Blog]

•  Tom O'Neil thinks it's now in the bag for "No Country for Old Men." [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers talks to 12-time Oscar nominee Greg P. Russell. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine dug back into the Kevin O'Connell/Greg P. Russell thing, by the way, uncovering some old wounds in the process. [Vulture]

•  Following Saturday's DGA victory for the Coens, Susan King spotlights directing partners throughout cinema history. [The Envelope]

•  William Keck follows up on the Sean Young fiasco from Saturday in his DGA coverage. [USA Today]

If you haven't heard by now, the Coen brothers and Robert Elswit were recipients of the DGA and ASC awards this evening.  The Coens' win was quite expected, but Elswit taking top honors away from Roger Deakins is quite unexpected -- personally, I thought Deakins would take the cake here.   "There Will Be Blood" has more support than I anticipated.

It really does seem like a toss up between "No Country" and "Blood."  We'll see.

I didn't realize I'd be making two posts about Tony Gilroy in a row, but there we are.  And, ironically enough, I sat down to watch "Michael Clayton" again last night, and in the 12 hours since I ejected it from my DVD player, I've already forgotten James Newton Howard's Oscar nominated score again.  That one will be a head-scratcher for a while, but nevertheless, it's a tight movie that deserved, well, a good portion of its accolades this season.

I stumbled across this here at homebase yesterday.  I think it's the first phase two Oscar ad we've seen:

•  Place your bets! [Hollywood Stock Exchange]

•  Sasha Stone previews the DGA race, warns against getting caught up in last minute predictions chaos, and mixes in some other considerations for good measure. [Awards Daily]

•  The DGA Awards, by the way, will be hosted by Carl Reiner. [Variety]

•  We've also got a massive preview of the awards, with looks at peripheral nominees (assistant directors, anyone?), the newbie nature of the group and some huzzahs for DGA attorney Jay Roth. [Variety]

•  An old post, but Jeffrey Wells considers nominations for art direction, cinematography, costume design and score to be "soft" tips of the hat for "Atonement." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil says to bank on Julie Christie at Sunday's SAG Awards.  Lionsgate flooded the screener market again. [Gold Derby]

•  David Carr makes some final observations on the nominations, taking note of the newbies and diversity in the line-up and pointing out that "Into the Wild" deserved "better treatment." [The Carpetbagger]

•  New York Magazine draws humorous parallls between the year's Best Picture nominees and the current political climate. [Vulture]

•  In analyzing this year's nominees, Kyle Smith makes us wonder why he's even in this business. [New York Post]

•  In case you haven't heard, things are looking up for the Oscar telecast. [Variety]

•  Scott Bowles follows it up and digs up some industry chit-chat on alternatives. [USA Today]

•  Finally, A.O. Scott writes up the legacy of Heath Ledger for The Paper of Record. [New York Times]

1979-2008

•  Phil Gallo rounds up a list of 2008 Oscar factoids here at homebase. [Variety]

•  Calling from Rome regarding his Best Director nomiantion, Julian Schnabel has this bit of dry excitement for Paula Schwartz: "They're going to buy me a bottle of champagne and we're going to act like we're excited." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Another rudimentary list of nominee reactions, but with some fresh faces nonetheless: Scott Rudin and Andrzej Wajda among them. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, thinking outside the box as always, ponders the Top 10 Oscar Talking Points of yesterday's goings on. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine asks the brothers Coen about Oscar nominee "Roderick Jaynes." [Vulture]

•  Peter Martin thinks "There Will Be Blood" is one Oscar nomination short of its destiny, thank you very much. [Cinematical]

•  Boy, T.L. Stanley really hates "Juno." [Gold Rush]

•  No, she really hates "Juno." [Gold Rush]

•  Ramin Satoodeh, meanwhile, chalks Jason Reitman's Best Director nomination for "Juno" up as the morning's most surprising nominee. [The Gold Digger]

•  Pete Hammond has his own idea of the surprises, and calls the Best Makeup showing for "Norbit" his "favorite nom of the day."  Here's hoping Pete's winning sense of humor is shinging through there. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil pours over the various guild misteps this season, where Oscar prognostication is concerned. [Gold Derby]

•  Anthony Breznican and Susan Wloszczyna dig into "the long strange Oscar season" of 2007. [USA Today]

•  And Gary Strauss rounds up Oscar's snubs. [USA Today]

•  Alexandra Peers has the scoop on Julian Schnabel's latest art exhibit, "Navigations," amidst critical and industry kudos for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [Vulture]

•  Dave Karger sits down with "In the Valley of Elah" and "No Country for Old Men" star Tommy Lee Jones. [Entertainment Weekly]

•  NBC is set to loose a bundle due to cancellation of the Golden Globes telecast. [Wall Street Journal]

•  The soundtrack to "Juno" lands at #8 on the Billboard charts. ("Sonic Youth sucks.  It's just noise.") [Extended Play]

•  The People's Choice Awards weren't much of a hit with the "people." [Variety]

•  "No Country" wins yet another Best Picture award, this time from the Online Film Critics Society. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells is four-square behind "I drink your milkshake" as a marketing must for Paramount Vantage's "There Will Be Blood" Oscar campaign. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland talks to "Sweeney Todd" helmer Tim Burton. [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers launches a new podcast series, beginning with the heart-stopping Marisa Tomei.  (Hey, she stops my heart.) [The Film Experience]

•  Oh yeah...Gurus 2.0. [Movie City News]

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

As part of the weekend's Eye on the Oscars: Directors Roundup Feature Issue, Robert Koehler gives the auteur theory a once over by looking at filmmakers like David Fincher, Sidney Lumet and the Coen brothers, but there's also a very interesting collection of helmer profiles from Broadway directors to sift through.

There's Michael Mayer ("Spring Awakening") on Julian Schnabel ("The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"); Jack O'Brien ("Hairspray") on Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"); Des McAnuff ("Jersey Boys") on Anton Corbijn ("Control"); and Doug Hughes ("Doubt") on Tony Gilroy ("Michael Clayton:") among many others.  Give it a look.

I love these artist on artist things.  If you missed it the first time around, be sure to check out Variety's round-up of actors sizing up their colleagues from November.

•  Tom O'Neil has a little inside scoop from yesterday's National Society of Film Critics awards voting. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone, meanwhile, perhaps jumps the gun by insisting "There Will Be Blood" is the Best Picture frontrunner (with nothing to go on but critical awards and one nomination in the guild arena thus far). [Awards Daily]

•  Speaking of which, Ed Pilkington sits down with "Blood" helmer Paul Thomas Anderson. [Guardian]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks "Sweeney Todd" with the "affable" Tim Burton. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Oscar season gets a hard look from the Gray Lady's critics, starting with a love letter to "Zodiac" from Manohla Dargis. [New York Times]
    
     Dargis' original review of the film dated Mar. 2, 2007. [New York Times]

•  A.O. Scott, meanwhile, digs back into Alexander Supertramp and "Into the Wild." [New York Times]
    
     Scott's original review of the film, dated Sept. 27, 2007. [New York Times]

•  And Stephen Holden goes "Across the Universe" one more time for good measure (thinking a little more outside the Oscar box than his colleagues). [New York Times]
    
     Holden's original review, dated Sept. 14, 2007. [New York Times]

•  David Carr, meanwhile, takes a look at the WGA strike's implications on Oscar. [New York Times]

•  And finally, Caryn James digs into the career of Best Actor hopeful George Clooney. [New York Times]

•  Some photos from thee Palm Springs International Film Festival, well underway. [The Envelope]

•  First looks at Demian Bichir in next year's Oscar hopefuls "The Argentine" and "Guerilla" (both from Steven Soderbergh). [Ain't It Cool News]

First and foremost, a happy and safe New Year to you all.  With 2008 coming in, oh, about fifteen and a half hours (for us west coasters, anyway), I thought it would be beneficial to offer up a list of important dates.  A lot of key events are slated for the next few weeks and the Oscar season will pretty much be full steam ahead from here on out.

The guilds are the focus of January, all of which are more likely to forecast the Oscar situation more than any critics group thus far, of that you can be sure.  Taking a measure of the guilds is key when it comes to gauging apparent disinterest ("Cold Mountain") or surprising unanimity for films that might have otherwise been considered far-fetched in the big race ("Capote," "Little Miss Sunshine").

Here's what to look for next month:

January 3: Five finalists for USC Scripter award announced.
January 7: BFCA hosts the Critics Choice Awards (Live on VH1).
January 7: VES nominees announced (Visual Effects Society).
January 7: ASC theatrical and TV nominees announced (American Society of Cinematographers)*
January 8: DGA feature film nominees announced (Directors Guild of America).
January 9: Winners of USC Scripter awards announced.
January 10: CAS nominees announced (Cinema Audio Society).
January 10: DGA documentary nominees announced.
January 10: WGA screen nominees announced (Writers Guild of America).
January 11: ACE nominees announced (American Cinema Editors).
January 11: ADG announces nominees (Art Directors Guild).
January 12: AMPAS nominations polls close, end of Oscar voting.
January 13: HFPA hosts Golden Globe Awards (Live on NBC...maybe).
January 14: PGA motion picture and long-form television nominees announced. (Producers Guild of America).
January 16: AMPAS announces seven bake-off finalists for Best Visual Effects category.
January 16: BAFTA nominations announced (British Academy).
January 18: CDG nomees announced (Costume Designers Guild).
January 22: Oscar nominees announced for the 80th Annual Academy Awards (Live on E!, et al).
January 26: DGA Awards.
January 27: SAG Awards (Live on TNT, except on west coast).

Whew.  Hope you're ready...

*This is listed as "week of" at the ASC's official website, so expect a date to be nailed down in due time.

•  Rainn Wilson will be stepping in for Sarah Silverman as host of the IFP Awards. [Variety]

•  Following in the footsteps of Nathaniel Rogers, David Carr offers up a list of contingency plans for a non-telecast Oscar ceremony. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Tom O'Neil becomes Oscar blogger #603 to quote A.O. Scott's "Sweeney Todd" review for all it's worth. [Gold Derby]

•  Slow news week much?  The LA Times offers up a gallery of Oscar winners turned blockbuster performers... [The Envelope]

•  ...and one covering the goings-on of Hollywood couples this year, of all things. [The Envelope]

•  Jeffrey Wells gives year's worst honors to "Are We Done Yet?" [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Ryan Pearson profiles "The Bucket List" star Jack Nicholson. [Associated Press]

•  Sasha Stone surveys the Best Picture field one...more...time, and keeps the ball rolling on Jamie Lynn Spears/"Juno."  Personally, I think that whole idea is a media creation. [Awards Daily]

•  David Poland offers one more Oscar column for 2007, somehow thinks the SAG-ignored "Sweeney Todd" is ahead of the SAG-embraced "Into the Wild." [Movie City News]

•  But at least he has his head in the right place regarding the fact that the Oscar ceremony simply won't shut down due to the strike. [The Hot Blog]

•  After this week's Vulture commentary on male nudity in films this year, Ramin Setoodeh offers up his list of 2007's top 10 nude scenes. [The Gold Digger]

•  Geoff Boucher cataches up with the brilliant Marjane Satrapi. [Los Angeles Times]

•  And Paul Brownfield catches up with the eccentric Julian Schnabel. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Warner Bros. unleashes the high def tailer for "The Dark Knight" onto a salivating web-geek community. [A Taste for the Theatrical]

•  Pete Hammond keeps those speculative wheels spinning on Will Smith's "I Am Legend" turn. [The Envelope]

•  That's probably because the film shattered box office records this weekend. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil calls the Lond critics noms "curious."  Why, because they strayed from the herd? [Gold Derby]

•  The American Film Institute sticks with the herd. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and gets into the ins and outs of Daniel Day-Lewis' wardrobe choices. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland gets into the specifics of the year's top ten lists. [The Hot Blog]

•  Speaking of top tens, yours truly adds his opinion to the collective. [In Contention]

•  Jesse Green gets into Stephen Sondheim and "Sweeney Todd" at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Richard Berke, meanwhile, reports on screenplay alterations that led to something of a white-washed "Charlie Wilson's War," among other things. [New York Times]

•  Glenn Kenny also does "Wilson," with director Mike Nichols. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Sasha Stone points us to a massive collection of FYC ads (though hers is still fabulous). [Awards Daily]

•  "Juno" seems to have a new fan site on the web. [And the Winner Is...]

•  Speaking of which, star Ellen Page fields unnecessary "Knocked Up" comparisons at New York Magazine. [Vulture]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

The New York Film Critics Circle had absolutely no surprises in store today, handing "No Country for Old Men" four awards, including one for Best Pic.

Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert Elswit represented Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood," which swept the LA critics' awards yesterday, while Julie Christie positioned herself again as the competition for Marion Cotillard in the Best Actress race (where's Ellen Page been this whole time?).  Amy Ryan also continues to scorch the earth as THE supporting actress frontrunner of the year.

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was surprisingly snubbed throughout.  Nothing, also, for Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," a Gotham film if there ever was one.  The director did, however, pick up a lifetime achievement award.

This weekend's activity and today's awards have put "No Country' and "Blood" at the top of everyone's rontrunner lists for Oscar, two brutal, cold films that are not the Academy pedigree at all.  But perhaps the critics will muscle them into the dance if this continues to be the case, each of them constantly duking it out.  Tomorrow, the Broadcast Film Critics Association announces its list of nominees, always a pretty good indication of where the Academy will ultimately go.

The full list of NYFCC winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Cinematographer: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Documentary: "No End in Sight"
Best First Film: Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"
Best Animated Film: "Persepolis"
Best Foreign Film: "The Lives of Others"
Lifetime Achievement Award: Sidney Lumet
Special Critics' Award: Charles Burnett, "Killer of Sheep"

More of these!

The Washington, D.C. critics voted today, giving their Best Picture honors to "No Country for Old Men."  So in one day, it's the Coens vs. P.T.A across four awards-giving bodies.  INTERESTING.

Here's the full list of D.C. winners

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Best Ensemble: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Breakthrough Performance: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Foreign Language Film: "The Diving Bell and The Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Sicko"
Best Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd:The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

So that's 3 for 4 for Amy Ryan today.  I didn't see that coming, I have to say.  Aaron Sorkin's win for "Charlie Wilson's War" is a bit out of left field, given that "No Country for Old Men" racked up three other wins (including a second score for ensemble acting).

No precursor love so far for "Atonement" and "American Gangster."

This isn't exactly a shocker, but Ang Lee's racy "Lust, Caution" swept the Golden Horse Awards this weekend (kind of the Asian version of the Oscars).  Variety has the story.

Lee and Tony Leung were cited for Best Director and Best Actor, while Tang Wei grabbed the newcomer award.  The film also took down Best Feature Film, Best Screenplay Adaptation, Best Costume Design and Best Original Film Score.

They liked the film so much, they apparently tossed another award Lee's way, for Outstanding Taiwanese Filmaker of the Year.

Anyway, like I said, no major twist of events.  It'll be interesting to see if the film can gain any traction whatsoever with the Academy.  There are people who hate it, there are people who think it's in the realm of a masterpiece.  Funny how these things work out.

Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience has some reactions to the awards up.  Give it a look.

The Boston Society of Film Critics voted on their list of winners this afternoon.  Beginning what is likely to be a critics' group stampede, the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" won Best Picture of the year.  It was one of two wins for the film.  Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" won three, including Best Director.

Frank Langella picked up some needed steam as the group's Best Actor choice.  Every lead actor winner from the group has gone on to an Oscar nomination since 2000's choice of Colin Farrell in "Tigerland" (unless you count Brian Cox for "L.I.E." in 2001, though he tied with Denzel Washington in "Training Day."

Marion Cotillard grabbed her first significant lead actress win of the season.  The last winner in that category to miss with Oscar was Scarlett Johansson for Sofia Coppola's "Lost in Translation" four years ago.

Ultimately this isn't a necessarily great predictive precursor across the board unless a consensus has formed (like with last year's lead races).  They're Best Picture winners over the last couple of years have gone on to notices at the Academy, but there was also a stretch where "Trainspotting," "Out of Sight," "Almost Famous" and "Mulholland Dr." took down the big win.  None of them managed Best Picture nominations with the Academy.

Basically...perspective is key.  Nothing will truly be of consequence until the guilds start to speak up.  But this is no doubt the beginning of an impressive run of precursor awards for the Coen brothers film.

Variety has a BSFC write-up.  Stay tuned later today for the LAFCA announcement.

BSFC Winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Actor: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "Ratatouille"
Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Crazy Love"
Best Foereign-Language Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best New Filmmaker: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Ensemble Cast: "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

Anthony Kaufman has a piece up in today's "Eye on the Oscars' Variety supplement pondering the issue of final cut and whether directors are given too much freedom in the editing room.  He chats the issue over with journalist Peter Biskind, Village Voice critic J. Hoberman, four of the season's directing contenders and a bevy of studio honchos.

There's also a listing of 20 directors in the race with profiles of each.  Check it out.

•  Jeffrey Wells draws a rather...definitive line between this year's Best Picture contending product. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Anne Thompson offers some thoughts on the supposed non-campaign campaign for "Atonement." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  David Poland flails about wildly and takes Thompson's comparisons to other Oscar epics WAY too seriously on his way to being "a dick about it." (his words, not mine) [The Hot Blog]

•  Susan King talks method and "Blood" with Best Actor hopeful (frontrunner?) Daniel Day-Lewis. [The Envelope]

•  Romanian Oscar entry "4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days" wins big at the European Film Awards. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil responds... [Gold Derby]

•  ...then he chats it up with "Lust, Caution" helmer Ang Lee... [Gold Derby]

•  ...and Best Supporting Actress hopeful Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone"). [Gold Derby]

•  Ramin Setoodeh responds to "Sweeney Todd," calls it "good, not great." [The Gold Digger]

•  Sasha Stone thinks "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is a formiddable contender in the Oscar race.  Duh! [Awards Daily]

•  Rebecca Ascher-Walsh forecasts indie Oscar hopefuls. [The Hollywood Reporter]

In today's Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope, it seems "Juno" has moved into the top five Best Picture considerations, while Paul Dano has lept up into the supporting actor fray.

I'm tempted to go along with the latter once again (while I've already been on board for the former) because it seems to be, if anything, a situation where an explosive leading performance pulls the supporting portrayal along for the awards ride -- no matter the perception out there that Dano might be somewhat out of his league.

It seems to recall Ethan Hawke's nomination alongside Denzel Washington in "Training Day."  Though, in this viewer's mind, Hawke's performance there has only been matched by his work this year in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Other buzz gainers include JamesMcAvoy and Vanessa Regrave for "Atonement" and Ridley Scott for "American Gangster."  Mike Nichols took a tumble in the director ranks for "Charlie Wilson's War" and, indeed, his film only show up in one other category chart: Best Supporting Actor, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Take a look at the update.  I'm thinking about gathering up all the info from the Gurus o' Gold, the Sultans of Bling and the Buzzmeter to see what an overall consensus would look like.

Jeez, I totally just sounded like a dork.