I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.
For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).
If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.
Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists. A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc. The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives. One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter. They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films. But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.
I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings. First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans. The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.
Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night." Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.
The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire." The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."
31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.
Now, let's get to the consensus chart. Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:
01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)
Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say. This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.
Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.
Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.
"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months. We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.
(Post edited with correct attribution. I got so used to seeing McNary's by-line on breaking news this week that I gave him this one, too. Oops!)
• "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac" top a critics poll of the year's best. [
Variety 
• Anne Thompson talks up the Oscar prospects of "Juno" as the film opens to rave reviews. [
• Gregg Kilday catches up with the notion that voters might cling to something up-beat in the midst of 2007's downer slate. 
• Michael Cieply on the "ghettoized" Animated Feature category and the Best Picture hopes of "Ratatouille." [
• Variety begins coverage of the Gotham Awards. [
• "American Gangster" draws heat and accusations of drifting a bit too far from the truth from the real Richie Roberts. [
Red Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email 
