Now that ballots are in, I'll gladly advocate:

•  With the Indie Spirits fast approaching, Anne Thompson points us to an interview with "I'm Not There" casting director Laura Rosenthal. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Sasha Stone takes in the IMDb polls to get a leg up on predicting who's going to win what. [Awards Daily]

•  Oh, but wait -- she finds another poll with an even bigger pool of participants from AOL. [Awards Daily]

•  Jeffrey Wells also digs that eleventh hour "Jesse James" ad for Casey Affleck. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Dennis Lim writes up the largely fresh crop of helmers nominated for Best Director this year. [The Envelope]

•  Now that yesterday's big wave of confirmed Oscar presenters has been revealed, Tom O'Neil ponders who will present what. [Gold Derby]

•  In case you missed it, David Carr looks into the field of lead actor contenders and thinks against the grain of the Day-Lewis foregone conclusion. [The Carpetbagger]

•  John Horn spends some quality time with Best Adapted Screenplay nominee Sarah Polley. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Meanwhile, source authors for much of the year's contenders get noe respect, says Daniel Ulin. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Mat Fraser isn't too happy with BAFTA brass feeling "uncomfortable" with screening Richard Butchins' "The Last American Freak Show." [Guardian]

•  From the weekend, David Gritten wonders whether Daniel Day-Lewis is a considerable talent or merely a ham. [Daily Telegraph]

Actor in a Supporting Role Casey Affleck
Cinematography Roger Deakins

•  Ryan Adams posits the Oscars as a repeat of the Super Bowl, with "No Country" repping the undefeated Pats and "Atonement," should it take down a BAFTA victory, standing in for those Cinderella G-Men. [Awards Daily]

•  The sound crew from "No Country" continues to make the rounds. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells chimes in on the Weinstein strategy for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" -- free "reel" in copies of yesterday's Variety. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone ponders the evergreen question: Who really marks up these ballots every year? [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens looks at the year's Grammy nominated film music, including work from Glen Hansard ("Once") and Eddie Vedder ("Into the Wild"). [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Vedder, New York Magazine isn't keen on Pearl Jam's latest pro-Obama track. [Vulture]

•  The Buzzmeter favors "No Country," save a select few holdouts. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil takes note. [Gold Derby]

•  Yes, the biggest Hollywood party of the year has been cancelled. [New York Times]

•  Mark Olsen sits down with Oscar nominee (and dark horse supporting actor contender) Casey Affleck. [The Envelope]

•  Donn Freydkin sits down with Javier Bardem in one of a slew of interviews the actor has been giving in recent weeks. [USA Today]

•  Sasha Stone digs uop the International Film Music Award nominees.  Alexandre Desplat leads the pack. [Awards Daily]

•  Keeping things intresting during the Oscar season, The Envelope launches a nifty new Sundance section for full coverage. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil wonders if the DGA's deal with the producers is the lifeline Gil Cates and the Oscar ceremony was banking on. [Gold Derby]

•  Noah Forrest cranks out a personal Oscar ballot full of unique and inspired choices. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, meanwhile, has his own ballot for the acting contenders.  He says to hell with a supporting actor campaign on Casey Affleck's performance in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford."  Lead all the way, baby. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine is high on Imelda Staunton's "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" turn (also showing up on Rogers' ballot). [Vulture]

•  David Poland talks with "Juno" star Ellen Page. [The Hot Blog]

The Features department continues to plough exhaustively through the season, this week spotlighting the sound mixers, sound editors and visual effects artists.  There's also a roundup of contending producers.

Additionally, you'll find a phase one wrap-up that starts with a look behind the veil at the Academy's preferential voting process.  Peter Debruge follows that up with a look at the Academy's short film categories, and the philosophy that those arenas are considered an "incubator for future talent" by AMPAS.

Finally, the issue closes on an interesting piece about the "controversial, unexpected or downright puzzling" endings of films such as "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Atonement," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood."  Andrew Barker has the byline.

The ever-sleepless staff here at Variety has put together an assemblage of the 21 Most Unforgettable Movie Moments of 2007.  The usual suspects are represented: the tracking shot from "Atonement," the Waterloo sequence from "The Bourne Ultimatum," (a damn fine call) the knife fight from "Eastern Promises," etc.

For me, one of the scenes that will stick in my mind more than any other is unquestionably the final sequence of "There Will Be Blood."  I also found the polar bear fight from "The Golden Compass" to be absolutely thrilling, while the opening action sequence from "The Host" was heart-stopping as well -- and visually creative to boot.  "No Country for Old Men," despite being a film whose philosophy rings a little cheaper to me than it does elsewhere int he critical community, is packed with tiny masterpieces of cinematic gold from sequence to sequence, not the least of which is Chigurgh's stalking of Moss in that dingy, dark hotel room.

But if I had to pick a moment that stood head and shoulders above the rest this year, it would have to be the opening train robberty sequence from "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford."  At once gripping and gorgeous on every level.

Here's what Variety thinks...what about you?

Another feature from Variety this week, the Eye on the Oscars: The Look special, which focuses on design elements in 2007's awards hopefuls.  There are 8 films featured specifically, in addition to two separate feature pieces.

First, Kathy A. Macdonald takes a look at the mixture of authenticity and post-modern spin in the year's frontier pics: "3:10 to Yuma," "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" and "There Will Be Blood."  The costume and production design heads from each are quoted.

Addmie Morfoot, meanwhile, looks at the spectrum through the other lens, detailing depictions of and diversity on location in the Big Apple.  "Across the Universe," "American Gangster," "The Brave One," "Enchanted," "The Hoax," "I Am Legend," "Michael Clayton" and "We Own the Night" are all featured.  I didn't realize how much NYC played into this year's product until I read that piece...interesting.

The American Society of Cinematographers has announced its list of nominees.  Here they are, with nary a surprise in sight:

"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Roger Deakins)
"Atonement" (Seamus McGarvey)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Janusz Kaminski)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roger Deakins)
"There Will be Blood" (Robert Elswit)

I really thought the guild would go for Harris Savides' work in either "American Gangster" or "Zodiac," since, in talking to the majority of the big names in this field over the last few weeks for a separate piece, his is the most lauded lenser of the bunch from within their ranks.  Eric Gautier seemed a decent bet for capturing the American West so gorgeously in "Into the Wild," not to mention the paitnerly qualities of Dariusz Wolski's work in "Sweeney Todd."  But I can certainly live with this line-up.

According to the ASC's press release (published below), Roger Deakins is the first lenser to grab two nominations in one year from the guild.  Each of his nods are well deserved to say the least, and it really does seem foregone that he's well on his way to his first Oscar next month.

In any case, this wouldn't be a shocking final five at the Oscars, with outside shots still possible for Gautier and Wolski.  Sasha Stone has an ASC/Oscar comparison chart up over at Awards Daily if you want to crunch the numbers.

Here's the full press release:

LOS ANGELES, January 7, 2008 — THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN with cinematography by Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC; THERE WILL BE BLOOD by Robert Elswit, ASC; THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY by Janusz Kaminski; and ATONEMENT by Seamus McGarvey, BSC have been nominated in the Feature Film category of the 22nd Annual American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Outstanding Achievement Awards competition. The winner will be announced here during the awards gala on January 26, at the Hollywood and Highland Grand Ballroom.

Deakins is the first cinematographer to claim two nominations in one year in the ASC Feature Film category. He was previously nominated five times and won twice (THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION, THE MAN WHO WASN’T THERE). This is the fourth ASC nomination for Kaminski, the second for Elswit, and the first for McGarvey.

“In the opinion of their peers, these four talented individuals have set the contemporary standard for artful cinematography in a very competitive field,” says Russ Alsobrook, ASC who chairs the organization’s Awards Committee. “They all succeeded in helping to create a sense of time and place while evoking emotional responses that were in tune with the intentions of the directors and actors.”

Deakins is from England, Kaminski is from Poland, McGarvey is from Ireland, and Elswit is a native of the United States.

“Artful cinematography is a global language, which frequently goes unnoticed by critics and the general public because it is usually designed to be unintrusive,” says ASC President Daryn Okada. “It requires innate talent, the ability to master a complex and constantly evolving craft, and a penchant for collaborating with many people for a common goal. Our purpose is to let our colleagues know we appreciate their artistry.”

•  David Poland kicks off his list of the year's best by taking a jab at supporters of "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac," chalks the lovefest up to "critical onanism."  Oh, and "I'm Not There" tops his list. [The Hot Button]

•  Bob Verini hypothesizes the comedy and musical categories of the Golden Globes to be a major audience draw for a telecast. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to filmmaker Daivd Fincher about "Zodiac" and next year's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," among other things. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil and Pete Hammond call the race as it is...for now, anyway. [Gold Derby]

•  The Times of London has a sit-down with "4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Times Online]

•  Todd Martens on the music behind John Salyes' "Honeydripper." [Extended Play]

•  Stu VanAirsdale kicks off his annual "Top 10 Top 10 Lists" list. [The Reeler]

•  Josh Jurgensen sits down with Tim Burton to talk "Sweeney Todd." [Wall Street Journal]

•  A little Helena Bonham Carter worship from Nathaniel Rogers. [The Film Experience]

•  "Atonement," "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "The Great Debaters" land on a list of the week's mostpirated flicks. [Torrent Freak]

•  The Hollywood Reporter's Andrew Wallenstein responds. [Reel Pop]

•  New York Magazine, meanwhile, wonders how long studios will continue to mail out screeners given how piracy happens each and every year...but I wouldn't worry about that yet. [Vulture]

•  Ramin Setoodeh is back with an anti-"Atonement" survey, an anti-"Sweeney Todd" hypothesis, and some pro-"Juno" sentiments. [The Gold Digger]

•  Paul Brownfield talks to Vanessa Redgrave about the "gravity" of her five minutes in "Atonement." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin gets into the threads of "Sweeney Todd" with costume designer Collen Atwood. [USA Today]

•  A night out on the town with "The Kite Runner" star Khaid Abdallah. [New York Times]

•  Lindsay Lohan is guaranteed at least one award this year. [MSNBC]

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

•  The "Eye on the Oscar" features look to film music... [Variety]

•  ...and visual effects. [Variety]

•  Will the industry really turn down the chance to get loaded on NBC's dime? [Variety]

•  Susan Thea Posnock talks to "Eastern Promises" star Viggo Mortensen. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley thinks the Bay area critics picked the wrong western. [Gold Rush]

•  David Poland has a chat with Chicago Film Critics nominee Leslie Mann. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ramin Satoodeh attends the NYC premiere of "There Will Be Blood." [The Gold Digger]

•  New York Magazine takes a stab at predicting the Golden Globe nominees. [Vulture]

•  So does Tom O'Neil. [Gold Derby]

•  Lou Lumenick takes a Catholic Bishop to task regardin ghte message of "Juno."  Only in Oscar season, folks. [New York Post]

•  59 songs make the Oscar "short" list.  Pick three. [The Envelope]

•  Rachel Abramowitz talks to the "Bucket" boys, Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Oprah Winfrey splits her advocacy between a presdential candidate and an Oscar contender. [USA Today]

According to Awards Daily, the San Francisco Critics Circle named "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" the Best Picture of 2007.  Now we're talking.

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

I probably wouldn't pass this along if it wasn't such a slow morning, but there's a commenter over at In Contention -- goes by the handle "Aguirre" -- who seems to have this insight or that regarding Wednesday's National Board of Review announcement.  Could just be some dude, of course, but I'll give the space to Aguirre.  Here's what he has to say:

"Ellen Page will win the award for breakthrough...I know for certain that Page's only competition is Amy Adams...

"For reasons unbeknownst to me, the NBR is considering 'Persepolis' only in the animated category at the moment...a clerical error that I don't believe they'll address by the time they vote...

"The Phil Donahue doc[umentary] and 'No End in Sight' are the only docs that have a chance with them...

"Marian Cotilliard [sic] will win...

"'The Kite Runner' will win best picture...the members formed more of a consensus on [that film] and the acting in 'Jesse James' than anything else all year...

"Sorry for all the input, but it's not often i can write about these senseless year-end shenanigans with any confidence."

Indeed, that's a lot of input.  Take it with a grain of salt for now, but we'll know in two days if Aguirre was on the money or not.

•  David Poland reports Cate Blanchett's lead actress push for "I'm Not There." [The Hot Blog]

•  Jeffrey Wells thinks the idea stinks. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil reports that Miramax studio executives are trying "to get to the bottom of the rumor." [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers writes up the effect Golden Globe placement has on actor/actress campaigns. [The Film Experience]

•  Anne Thompson, meanwhile, offers perspective on the typical jockeying for position. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Back to Wells, he's got a chat with "4 months, 3 weeks & 2 Days" director Christian Mungiu... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...offers some not-so-kind thoughts on Amy Adams and here Best Actress-aiming performcnace in "Enchanted"... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and ponders 2007 as 1999-ish in its broad swoop of quality cinema -- all in a slew of updates over the weekend.  Sleep, Jeffrey.  Sleep. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Brian Kinsley caught Peter Jackson snoozing in "Beowulf." [In Contention]

•  Susan King talks to Janusz Kaminski about his innovative lensing of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [The Envelope]

•  Lou Lumenick loved "Starting Out in the Evening" and commends the Best Actor push for Frank Langella. [New York Post]

•  Peter Knegt responds to Variety's story re: quality, but genre-handicapped performances. [indieWIRE]

•  Sasha Stone gets to "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," talks up Roger Deakins. [Awards Daily]

First of all, let me just say the reduction in plastic usage for studio screeners this year is awesome.  Focus and Searchlight, probably others (EDIT:" Yep - Warner is on the same ball as of this morning), have issued their films to voting bodies via slim, sometimes recycled cardboard cases using "vegetable-based" ink.  The green movement is among us.  Lionsgate sent out "3:10 to Yuma" this week, and once again, the consolidation of space deserves some kudos.

The studio infamously flooded the voting market with "Crash" screeners in 2005, sending out some 100,000+ copies to the entire SAG membership.  This year, accompanying their "Yuma" mailers is a "dime store novel" about the making of the film.  And when you open the flaps on the covers, it can be displayed all fancy-like:


Personally, I'm just happy to see the western making some sort of resurgence, and especially, to see that a studio is willing to hang it out there for a film from the genre.  I think it all started up again with the release of Kevin Costner's "Open Range" back in 2003, and then came David Milch's "Deadwood" on HBO the following year (unceremoniously cancelled by the network before it had a chance to play out the story).

This year western fans got "3:10 to Yuma" and "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while "No Country for Old Men" certainly contains aspects of the genre worth discussing.  Ed Harris is also in the midst of production on New Line's "Appaloosa," starring Harris and Viggo Mortensen.  And "Jesse James" author Ron Hansen might see further interest in his "Desperadoes" should the bottom line on the former become something appealing enough to this studio or that.

Maybe it isn't a passing thing.  Maybe it's back!

I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.

For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).

If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.

Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists.  A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc.  The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives.  One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter.  They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films.  But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.

I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings.  First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans.  The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.

Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night."  Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.

The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire."  The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."

31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.

Now, let's get to the consensus chart.  Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:

01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)

Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say.  This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.

Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.

Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.

"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months.  We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.

Really getting into the thick of the awards season, Variety's special issues are starting to heat up.  In print today: "The Contenders."

Yours truly (with major contributions from the industrious Sharon Swart) kicks things off with a glimpse at most of the players, some inside chatter, and an attempt at contextualizing the already steam-rolling season.

There are also a number of profiles for films in play.  Of the perceived heavies, Steven Gaydos tackles box office champ "American Gangster," Peter Debruge tries to get a bead on the unseen "Charlie Wilson's War" and Tim Gray gets into the gore of "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."

As for the dark horses, Debruge sizes up "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," Gaydos gets into "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and Anthony Kaufman showcases "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."

And we're off!  More and more special issues stuff to come, including the always revealing actor/actress profiles edition.  Stay tuned.