Actress in a Leading Role Cate Blanchett
Costume Design Alexandra Byrne

Actress in a Supporting Role Cate Blanchett

•  Ryan Adams posits the Oscars as a repeat of the Super Bowl, with "No Country" repping the undefeated Pats and "Atonement," should it take down a BAFTA victory, standing in for those Cinderella G-Men. [Awards Daily]

•  The sound crew from "No Country" continues to make the rounds. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells chimes in on the Weinstein strategy for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" -- free "reel" in copies of yesterday's Variety. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone ponders the evergreen question: Who really marks up these ballots every year? [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens looks at the year's Grammy nominated film music, including work from Glen Hansard ("Once") and Eddie Vedder ("Into the Wild"). [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Vedder, New York Magazine isn't keen on Pearl Jam's latest pro-Obama track. [Vulture]

•  The Buzzmeter favors "No Country," save a select few holdouts. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil takes note. [Gold Derby]

•  Yes, the biggest Hollywood party of the year has been cancelled. [New York Times]

•  Mark Olsen sits down with Oscar nominee (and dark horse supporting actor contender) Casey Affleck. [The Envelope]

•  Donn Freydkin sits down with Javier Bardem in one of a slew of interviews the actor has been giving in recent weeks. [USA Today]

Entertainmnt Weekly's Dave Karger has a typically thoughtful piece up surmising the potential effect of Sunday's SAG Awards on the upcoming Oscar ceremony.  Here's a peek:

As the only SAG nominee to snag a Best Picture Oscar nod, No Country for Old Men was certainly the movie to beat for the night's ultimate prize. That one of the bigger hits in the category (Hairspray, American Gangster) wasn't able to upset it only strengthens its Oscar chances....

...After Gone Baby Gone's Amy Ryan won the Critics' Choice Award and I'm Not There's Cate Blanchett picked up the Golden Globe, 83-year-old Ruby Dee scored a SAG win with her minutes-long performance in American Gangster. SAG voters might have been going for the career-achievement thing with this one, so Dee isn't necessarily the Oscar front-runner now. But it's the most even major race this year.

Read the rest.

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

I'm late to the table on this one, but Nathaniel Rogers has an intriguing list of 5 ways to make the Oscars entertaining without the use of film clips.

As you may have heard, the WGA is not allowing old film clips to be showcased at this year's Oscar and Golden Globes ceremonies.  The upside is we won't have to sit through endless montages that amount to nothing.  The downside is we'll have less bathroom breaks during the 10-hour extravaganza.

My favorite of Nathaniel's cheeky suggestions:

"Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There) forced on stage to impersonate all of her fellow supporting actress nominees. Can she “do” Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) and Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton) as well as she apes Dylan & Hepburn? Would capturing the precocious bad seed Saorsie Ronan (Atonement) finally prove too much for her estimable technique? If she pulls it off can they hand her 6 Oscars on the spot. One for each mimicry job + Bob Dylan."

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

•  Variety begins coverage of the Gotham Awards. [Variety]

•  David Poland offers his mea culpa regarding yesterday's Cate Blanchett category slip-and-slide...he was "played." [The Hot Blog]

•  Tom O'Neil sees "Charlie Wilson's War." [Gold Derby]

•  Ditto yours truly... [In Contention]

•  ...and Jeffrey Wells... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and Poland. [Movie City News]

•  Todd Martens on the addition of Kate Bush's "Lyra" from "The Golden Compass" to the Best Original Song race. [Extended Play]

•  Noah Forrest offers some casual thoughts on Oscar. [Movie City News]

•  Scott Feinberg talks to "Waitress" star Keri Russell. [And the Winner Is...]

There's plenty to read over this weekend regarding the supposed Best Actress push for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There."  I haven't even landed on one side of the fence yet for that film.  But that doesn't matter.

There are, thankfully, those out there (who love the movie, mind you) pondering the implications of this decision.  "Elizabeth: The Golden Age," while a stinker, still seems to have the sort of lead performance the Academy would vote for over Blanchett's turn in the Bob Dylan biopic.  But aside from that, haven't we pretty much come to a line of thinking (whether well-reported or blown out of proportion) that the Academy is no fan of the effort?

Personally, I thought Blanchett's SUPPORTING chances may have taken a ding last week when those reports surfaced.  So the waters welcoming a lead campaign would be even more dicey.  But with all the fuss, it really isn't worth talking about until a for your consideration ad hits the trades, and even then, the decision isn't solidified.  Chalk it up to rumor-mongering, re-repoprtage and jockeying for the scoop for now.

•  David Poland reports Cate Blanchett's lead actress push for "I'm Not There." [The Hot Blog]

•  Jeffrey Wells thinks the idea stinks. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil reports that Miramax studio executives are trying "to get to the bottom of the rumor." [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers writes up the effect Golden Globe placement has on actor/actress campaigns. [The Film Experience]

•  Anne Thompson, meanwhile, offers perspective on the typical jockeying for position. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Back to Wells, he's got a chat with "4 months, 3 weeks & 2 Days" director Christian Mungiu... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...offers some not-so-kind thoughts on Amy Adams and here Best Actress-aiming performcnace in "Enchanted"... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and ponders 2007 as 1999-ish in its broad swoop of quality cinema -- all in a slew of updates over the weekend.  Sleep, Jeffrey.  Sleep. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Brian Kinsley caught Peter Jackson snoozing in "Beowulf." [In Contention]

•  Susan King talks to Janusz Kaminski about his innovative lensing of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [The Envelope]

•  Lou Lumenick loved "Starting Out in the Evening" and commends the Best Actor push for Frank Langella. [New York Post]

•  Peter Knegt responds to Variety's story re: quality, but genre-handicapped performances. [indieWIRE]

•  Sasha Stone gets to "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," talks up Roger Deakins. [Awards Daily]

Todd Haynes was on hand last night for a rather intimate screening of his latest, "I'm Not There."  It was my first time seeing the film, which has been on the festival circuit since Telluride back in September.  I don't think I can even begin to qualify it.  I'm pretty sure it's an undeniable work of art, but beyond that, I need time to let it soak in and, most assuredly, I'll need another viewing.  I didn't even mosey over to Haynes during the reception because, quite frankly, I have no idea what I would have said to him.

In any case, my opinion isn't what's important.  What IS important is how floored the viewers in attendance were.  There was even a cryer.  Yeah, a cryer.

Michael Mann was in attendance, said he enjoyed the film, and spent quite a while making the rounds during the reception.  Most enthusiastic, however, was Ben Foster, who could not contain his sheer glee, not only at "I'm Not There," but at what he calls a "great year for movies."  He had recently come from seeing the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men," which had him on a high to go along with the Chivas Regal he was throwing back.

Foster said he thought filmmakers were finally giving in to silence and stillness in the cinema this year, an insight I hadn't previously stumbled onto, what with my declarations that it is simply a downer year at the theaters.  This notion of filmmakers taking their time with audiences, forcing serenity into the frame and allowing for a sort of marination, I think Foster is on to something.  And truly, the guy's enthusiasm is infectious.

Excitement over Hayne's Dylan-inspired work dominated the scene, however.  I also bumped into Jack Coleman ("Heroes"), who kept bouncing back and forth about his favorite sequences, favorite performances, etc., with another equally excited viewer.

Indeed, "I'm Not There" seems to be one of those films that becomes more of an experience than a passive exercise in observation.  It'll be interesting to see if last night's enthusiasm translates during the Oscar season.

•  Sasha Stone ponders whether "Beowulf" is being overshadowed by Angie's star. [Awards Daily]

•  Pete Hammond buzzes "longshot" Oscar possibilities, including Will Smith in "I Am Legend," of which he asks, "Is there any prognosticator out there who has even broached the idea of a Smith nomination this year?"  Uh, yeah.  This one, actually. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil on pregnancy as marketing power for Cate Blanchett and Helena Bonham Carter. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells on Oprah Winfrey (therefore, "The Great Debaters"), not being phased by a lack of TV publicity due to the WGA strike. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick thinks the Dec. 26 DVD release of "Eastern Promises" could bolster Viggo Mortensen's Best Actor hopes. [New York Post]