•  George Clooney: Oscar prognosticator. [Time]

•  Andy Trudeau profiles the Oscar nominated scores once again -- always a delight. [NPR]

•  Sasha Stone previews tomorrow's Independent Spirit Awards. [Awards Daily]

•  David Carr verbally spars with Paul Thomas Anderson at last night's Paramount Vantage party... [The Carpetbagger]

•  ...then he makes his final calls in the main categories. [New York Times]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, too, goes on the record as well. [The Film Experience]

•  Meanwhile, Jeffrey Wells drinks milshakes 45 or 55 feet away. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland wraps up the Oscar season.  As usual, he's not surprised by the way the year has rolled out. [Movie City News]

•  Gary Dretzka looks at Oscar-nominated films centered on Iraq. [Movie City News]

•  New York Magazine seems to think Javier Bardem has it in the bag. [Vulture]

•  Finally, Gina Piccalo writes up the whole affair as Hollywood's "holiday." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Ryan Adams posits the Oscars as a repeat of the Super Bowl, with "No Country" repping the undefeated Pats and "Atonement," should it take down a BAFTA victory, standing in for those Cinderella G-Men. [Awards Daily]

•  The sound crew from "No Country" continues to make the rounds. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells chimes in on the Weinstein strategy for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" -- free "reel" in copies of yesterday's Variety. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone ponders the evergreen question: Who really marks up these ballots every year? [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens looks at the year's Grammy nominated film music, including work from Glen Hansard ("Once") and Eddie Vedder ("Into the Wild"). [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Vedder, New York Magazine isn't keen on Pearl Jam's latest pro-Obama track. [Vulture]

•  The Buzzmeter favors "No Country," save a select few holdouts. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil takes note. [Gold Derby]

•  Yes, the biggest Hollywood party of the year has been cancelled. [New York Times]

•  Mark Olsen sits down with Oscar nominee (and dark horse supporting actor contender) Casey Affleck. [The Envelope]

•  Donn Freydkin sits down with Javier Bardem in one of a slew of interviews the actor has been giving in recent weeks. [USA Today]

I didn't expect back-to-back "No Country" posts, but regardless, David "The Carpetbagger" Carr proves again why only he can do what only he can do.  As part of a new series he's taking a look at the five Best Picture contenders from the pure angle of the visual (I'll let his words explain why).

He kicks things off today with a oxygenlaced review of "No Country for Old Men," and I gotta say, I think the pink elephants got to him just a bit.  But it's a fascinating read nonetheless:

At its most elemental, “No Country” is something of a super-hero epic, the twist being that the hero in this case represents indifferent evil. “No Country” is Javier Bardem’s movie. After a time, it seemed as if the Bagger was watching one of those amazing shows on the Nature Channel that features, in colossal close-ups, a reptile going about its business. All snakes are carnivorous and Anton Chigurh is simply hungrier than most.

Chigurh owns the space he ambles slowly through, unbound by social mores or cultural conventions. He moves with a deliberate attention to his needs that is freaky scary. For example, he doesn’t rob a drugstore for the supplies to tend to an injury — he create a diversion and then shops at his leisure.

To Chigurh, murder is a kind of courtship and he always takes the time to enjoy it. Slowly, it is revealed to each of his intended victims that they are in a new and dangerous place. There is a moment in each interaction when he takes custody of another human’s fate, which is not so much about showing them that he is God as demonstrating that, at least in this time and this place, there isn’t one.

Read the rest!

•  David Poland is none too pleased with The Hollywood Reporter's handling of that Sean Young thing.  I don't think it's worth this much fuss, but to each his own. [The Hot Blog]

•  Sasha Stone keys us in to yesterday's ballot mailing.  T-minus 19 days of voting and counting. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil wonders if Ruby Dee can repeat her SAG success next month at the Kodak Theatre. [Gold Derby]

•  Michael Ordoña talks to the guys behind "Michael Clayton," George Clooney and Tony Gilroy. [The Envelope]

•  "Juno" becomes the first soundtrack to top the charts since "Dreamgirls." [Extended Play]

•  Andrew O'Hehir talks to "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Salon]

•  Dennis Lim gets the director's ear as well. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Andrew Sarris thinks "Juno" might just beat out the competition in about a month's time. [New York Observer]

•  Lou Lumenick buys in, calls Stu VanAirsdale a "film snob" in the process.  Ouch. [New York Post]

•  Friendly joshing with Woody Harrelson and Javier Bardem. [People]

•  Robert Downey, Jr. wins Male Actor of the Year honors at ShoWest. [Variety]

•  "I Am Legend" and "Spider-Man 3" are among the nominees for this year's Epiphany Awards, honoring family and religious films.  Yes, family and religious films. [Variety]

(To put a face to the season beyond the coverage, I thought I'd introduce this little series.  Nothing special, just the trailers from each of the nominated films.  A couple a day.  We'll start things out with the "frontrunner.")



Directing  Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
Actor in a Supporting Role  Javier Bardem
Cinematography  Roger Deakins
Film Editing  Roderick Jaynes
Best Picture  Scott Rudin, Ethan Coen and Joel Coen, Producers
Sound Editing  Skip Lievsay
Sound Mixing  Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)  Written by Joel Coen and Ethan Coen

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

The Boston Society of Film Critics voted on their list of winners this afternoon.  Beginning what is likely to be a critics' group stampede, the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" won Best Picture of the year.  It was one of two wins for the film.  Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" won three, including Best Director.

Frank Langella picked up some needed steam as the group's Best Actor choice.  Every lead actor winner from the group has gone on to an Oscar nomination since 2000's choice of Colin Farrell in "Tigerland" (unless you count Brian Cox for "L.I.E." in 2001, though he tied with Denzel Washington in "Training Day."

Marion Cotillard grabbed her first significant lead actress win of the season.  The last winner in that category to miss with Oscar was Scarlett Johansson for Sofia Coppola's "Lost in Translation" four years ago.

Ultimately this isn't a necessarily great predictive precursor across the board unless a consensus has formed (like with last year's lead races).  They're Best Picture winners over the last couple of years have gone on to notices at the Academy, but there was also a stretch where "Trainspotting," "Out of Sight," "Almost Famous" and "Mulholland Dr." took down the big win.  None of them managed Best Picture nominations with the Academy.

Basically...perspective is key.  Nothing will truly be of consequence until the guilds start to speak up.  But this is no doubt the beginning of an impressive run of precursor awards for the Coen brothers film.

Variety has a BSFC write-up.  Stay tuned later today for the LAFCA announcement.

BSFC Winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Actor: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "Ratatouille"
Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Crazy Love"
Best Foereign-Language Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best New Filmmaker: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Ensemble Cast: "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

This is a great feature.  As part of today's SAG Awards Preview, Variety has a long list of "Actors on Actors," with many of the hottest names in the industry speaking up on some their colleagues.

In one of my favorites, Javier Bardem on Hal Holbrook, the "No Country for Old Men" star says Holbrook's moment in the truck with Emile Hirsch's Chris McCandless character is "one of the best performances [he's] seen."

Forest Whitaker talks up his co-star from "The Last King of Scotland," James McAvoy, calling the actor's "Atonement" performance "authentic," saying that when he tries to describe the portrayal to people, it "gets [him[ in [his] throat."  Josh Brolin, meanwhile, offers a humorous anecdote about the first time he met Ben Foster, and Foster pays it forward by calling Ellen Page's "Juno" portrayal a "flagship character for our generation."

There's plenty more, of course.  You can find the whole lot at Award Central.  Give it a look.

•  Sasha Stone kicks things into high gear in her State of the Race column. [Awards Daily]

•  Susan King ponders awards telecasts without writers. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil thinks "The Simpsons Movie" might bump "Beowulf."  Smart thinkin'. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells, still on the "Zodiac" train, is encouraged by Paramount spending this awards season. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick thinks Javier Bardem is his own competition -- well, not true, since he's going supporting in "No Country." [New York Post]