•  Jack Nicholson takes considerable umbrage with the length of the Oscar season. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells digs the Oscar nominated short "I Met the Walrus." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone digs into the Best Actress category, considered sewn up in some quarters, an open field in others. [Awards Daily]

•  Yours truly takes another stab at how the race might be shaping up in a few tricky categories. [In Contention]

•  Tom O'Neil has a chat with Pete Hammond, who thinks Tilda Swinton may pull off an upset.  I'm thinking the exact same thing (see link above). [Gold Derby]

•  Roger Ebert -- no shock here -- picks Ellen Page to win Best Actress. [Chicago Sun Times]

•  John Horn and Gina Piccalo take an interesting angle on the Oscar ceremony: the need to scramble a show together, now that the strike is kaput. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin sits down with the chipper-as-always Saoirse Ronan. [USA Today]

Actress in a Leading Role  Ellen Page
Directing  Jason Reitman
Best Picture  Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
Writing (Original Screenplay)  Written by Diablo Cody

I'm kind of buried in the guilty pleasures of "National Treasure" on USA at the moment, so I'm forgetting the red carpet coverage of tonight's SAG awards.  But reading through David Carr's coverage at The Carpetbagger, I noticed that he's reporting "The Bourne Ultimatum" as the winner of that shiny new category, Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble.  Well deserved.  "24" apparently won on the television side of things.

There was also a line from Ellen Page that made me laugh out loud.  In response to the notion that she doesn't take her work home with her, so to speak, she quipped: "I'm not that Daniel Day about it."  Juno lives.  She breathes.  She walks the red carpet.

•  An attempt at making sense of it all, post-guilds and with a week to go. [In Contention]

•  Is "I drink your milshake" an anachronism in "There Will Be Blood?"  Apparently not. Thanks haeavens we have Jeffrey Wells on the case of stuff like this.  What would we do otherwise? [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Texas State University gets in ona ll that Cormac McCarthy love. [Assciated Press via Hollywood Reporter]

•  Pete Hammond reports that an unusual amount of Academy members waited until the last minute to submit ballots this year...and that Joe Wright gets naked when he wins an award. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil gets into the campaign shift for "Juno" star Ellen Page, away from the cheeky and toward the serious. [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers responds to yesterday's PGA announcement. [The Film Experience]

•  T.L. Stanley does the same. [Gold Rush]

•  David Carr writes up a requiem for the Golden Globes ceremony at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Earlier, he partners up with Michael Cieply for a full rundown of the tragedy. [New York Times]

•  You can find the Oscar season anywhere, folks.  Anywhere.  Well, if you're obssessed and/or look hard enough. [Vulture]

•  There's hope for relapsing fashionistas yet! [USA Today]

I was all set to tap out an Oscarweb Round-up, but the usual suspects (linked in the right sidebar) have reactions up all over the place.  Suffice it to say, the mood out there is one of..."eh."  But there's plenty to read at The Envelope, Awards Daily, The Carpetbagger and, as always, Award Central.

But scouring the net this morning for anything not Globe-related, I came across this little item at The Film Experience.  The consensus for some time in the Best Actress category has been that either Ellen Page ("Juno"), Julie Christie ("Away from Her") or Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") is going to win the Oscar.  The latter two ladies took down wins last night, adding wind to their sails.  But whichever of these dames takes the win, according to Nathaniel Rogers, it'll be a historic moment for the category.

Rogers writes:

Julie Christie enchanted Oscar voters at that dazzling sunshine girl in 1965's Darling and should "Away From Her" bring her second win, it'll mark the longest time between acting wins for anyone. The current record holder is Helen Hayes who won Best Actress for "The Sin of Madelon Claudet" (1931) and then again in the supporting category for "Airport" (1970). Most dual winners actually win their second within a decade of their first.

If Marion Cotillard wins [for "La Vie en Rose"] it'll mark only the second time a foreign language performance has won Best Actress. And that happened even longer ago then Julie Christie's first triumph. The one and only recipient: Sophia Loren for "Two Women" (1961).

If Ellen Page wins for "Juno," she'll become the youngest Best Actress winner ever. She turns 21 three days before the Oscars which will be held (we think [gulp]) on February 24th. That makes her the youngest. Marlee Matlin ("Children of a Lesser God," 1986) currently holds the record for youngest lead actress win. She was also 21 but 2/3rds of the way to her 22nd birthday.

Very interesting indeed.  With Page missing last night, and with "Juno" not exactly tearing up the guild circuit (though a PGA nod is likely today), most are thinking the contest is between Christie and Cotillard, with the former getting the benefit of the prognostication doubt given that she is a screen icon.  We'll see how it pans out, but it's nice to know -- barring any out of the blue revelations in the Best Actress category -- that history will probably be made on Oscar night this year.

•  Shia LaBeouf, Ellen Page, Sienna Miller, Sam Riley and Tang Wei set to compete for BAFTA's Rising Star award.  And yes, the show will go on as planned. [Variety]

•  New York Magazine wants us to remember Paul Greengrass' work on "The Bourne Ultimatum" this awards season. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick responds to the DGA nominations... [New York Post]

•  ...and Sasha Stone hearts the line-up. [Awards Daily]

•  So does David Poland. [The Hot Blog]

•  And David Carr has some choice words of praise for the group's bids. [The Carpetbagger]

•  It seems Steven Spielberg will have to wait one more year to get that Cecil B. DeMille Award. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Pete Hammond gives his perspective on Monday's Critics' Choice Awards. [The Envelope]

•  The Oscars will go on!  (sigh) [AP -- by way of USA Today]

The Oscar hopefuls are coming back to the late night circuit, starting last night with Ellen Page's appearance on The Late Show with David Letterman as "Juno" continues to dazzle at the box office.  The film got a little round of applause when Letterman mentioned it leading into the clip, which caught my attention.

Anyway, here's the interview:

Happy New Year from Catalina!

•  Yours truly rolls out the year's most anticipated films. [In Contention]

•  In the wake of box office success for Jason Reitman's "Juno," Tom O'Neil wonders if Ellen Page has become the new frontrunner for Best Actress. [Gold Derby]

•  Speaking of box office and Oscar, Lou Lumenick gives the numbers a once over. [New York Post]

•  Jeffrey Wells seems happy to find that someone is "vaguely irritated" by "Starting Out in the Evening," a film I have to say I never quite responded to myself. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The over-deification of "No Country for Old Men" continues. [Awards Daily]

David Carr (sporting shaggier hair than the last time I had a drink or two with him on this coast) sat down for dinner and an interview with "Juno" star Ellen Page recently, and we the viewers are lucky enough to be a fly on the wall with this video of the conversation.

Personally, I liked the lead-in with Carr hailing a cab, jumping on the subway, etc., on the way to the interview better than the interview itself.  But the bit about the Hamburger phone (which has already made a brilliant Christmas present on this end) was cute too.

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

•  Warner Bros. unleashes the high def tailer for "The Dark Knight" onto a salivating web-geek community. [A Taste for the Theatrical]

•  Pete Hammond keeps those speculative wheels spinning on Will Smith's "I Am Legend" turn. [The Envelope]

•  That's probably because the film shattered box office records this weekend. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil calls the Lond critics noms "curious."  Why, because they strayed from the herd? [Gold Derby]

•  The American Film Institute sticks with the herd. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and gets into the ins and outs of Daniel Day-Lewis' wardrobe choices. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland gets into the specifics of the year's top ten lists. [The Hot Blog]

•  Speaking of top tens, yours truly adds his opinion to the collective. [In Contention]

•  Jesse Green gets into Stephen Sondheim and "Sweeney Todd" at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Richard Berke, meanwhile, reports on screenplay alterations that led to something of a white-washed "Charlie Wilson's War," among other things. [New York Times]

•  Glenn Kenny also does "Wilson," with director Mike Nichols. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Sasha Stone points us to a massive collection of FYC ads (though hers is still fabulous). [Awards Daily]

•  "Juno" seems to have a new fan site on the web. [And the Winner Is...]

•  Speaking of which, star Ellen Page fields unnecessary "Knocked Up" comparisons at New York Magazine. [Vulture]

•  Globe reactions all over the place, starting with Anne Thompson. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  David Carr chimes in with ruminations per category. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Brian Kinsley gives some knee-jerk thoughts. [In Contention]

•  Sasha Stone throws in her two cents. [Awards Daily]

•  Scott Feinberg tosses down the gauntlet, seems to take it all quite personally. [And the Winner Is...]

•  T.L. Stanley says the HFPA went with their typical M.O., sticking with "safe star power" and shunned risky efforts for the most part. [Gold Rush]

•  Lou Lumenick live-blogged the proceedings. [New York Post]

•  Stephen Galloway talks foreign contenders. [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  Nathaniel Rogers bemoans the snubbed. [The Film Experience]

•  Anthony Breznican talks to "Atonement" director Joe Wright and "Ratatouille" writer/director Brad Bird in a nice summary piece. [USA Today]

•  And David Poland would like to take credit for a number of the nominations due to his "Lunch with David" interview segments, thank you very much. [The Hot Blog]

•  Casey Affleck, Marion Cotillard, James McAvoy and Ellen Page to receive Santa Barbara's Virtuoso Award. [Variety]

•  The Features department turns its "Eye" toward the animation contenders. [Variety]

•  Colleen Atwood's march to an Oscar nod begins with the specifics of Pirelli's package. [E!]

•  Jeffrey Wells gets into why "Charlie Wilson's War" might have seemed a bit...neutered. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  John Horn and Chris Lee talk "I Am Legend" with Best Actor hopeful Will Smith. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Finally, Poland writes over 1,500 words on Scott Foundas' Oscar blogger meltdown earlier in the week, with nary a thesis in sight. [The Hot Blog]

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

I probably wouldn't pass this along if it wasn't such a slow morning, but there's a commenter over at In Contention -- goes by the handle "Aguirre" -- who seems to have this insight or that regarding Wednesday's National Board of Review announcement.  Could just be some dude, of course, but I'll give the space to Aguirre.  Here's what he has to say:

"Ellen Page will win the award for breakthrough...I know for certain that Page's only competition is Amy Adams...

"For reasons unbeknownst to me, the NBR is considering 'Persepolis' only in the animated category at the moment...a clerical error that I don't believe they'll address by the time they vote...

"The Phil Donahue doc[umentary] and 'No End in Sight' are the only docs that have a chance with them...

"Marian Cotilliard [sic] will win...

"'The Kite Runner' will win best picture...the members formed more of a consensus on [that film] and the acting in 'Jesse James' than anything else all year...

"Sorry for all the input, but it's not often i can write about these senseless year-end shenanigans with any confidence."

Indeed, that's a lot of input.  Take it with a grain of salt for now, but we'll know in two days if Aguirre was on the money or not.

This is a great feature.  As part of today's SAG Awards Preview, Variety has a long list of "Actors on Actors," with many of the hottest names in the industry speaking up on some their colleagues.

In one of my favorites, Javier Bardem on Hal Holbrook, the "No Country for Old Men" star says Holbrook's moment in the truck with Emile Hirsch's Chris McCandless character is "one of the best performances [he's] seen."

Forest Whitaker talks up his co-star from "The Last King of Scotland," James McAvoy, calling the actor's "Atonement" performance "authentic," saying that when he tries to describe the portrayal to people, it "gets [him[ in [his] throat."  Josh Brolin, meanwhile, offers a humorous anecdote about the first time he met Ben Foster, and Foster pays it forward by calling Ellen Page's "Juno" portrayal a "flagship character for our generation."

There's plenty more, of course.  You can find the whole lot at Award Central.  Give it a look.

Tamara Jenkins' "The Savages" opened to raves across the board today, judging from the solid 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating and a 92% Cream of the Crop collective assessment.  This shower of praise keeps the question on the table: Will the film's familial themes appeal to the Academy enough to generate legitimate Best Picture potential?

"The Savages" has been visible for nearly a year since its bow in Sundance back in January.  The film arguably would have been better served as a surprise rather than Fox Searchlight unveiling it so early (they went into the fest with the film in hand, it wasn't a purchased commodity).  Then again, Sundance was the perfect environment for this little ditty and what's done is done.  Moot point.

The studio now finds itself in a situation similar to Paramount Vantage: Which film to highlight?  The Buzzmeter has finally caught up to the potential of "Juno" in the big race, and when that film opens next month, the critical community will likely go as ga-ga as they have for "Savages."  Searchlight has sent screeners of each of their titles to the memberships of various entities.  And while it's foolish to think studios think in the "one film, one campaign" frame of mind, it's also naive to think a decision doesn't need to be made.

Whatever the case, "The Savages" rules the day for now.

•  Anne Thompson has a joygasm over Jeffrey Wells' "There Will Be Blood" review (and with due cause). [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Ryan C. Adams talks Roger Deakins and has an interesting clip of the lenser working in post-production on "O Brother, Where Art Thou?" [Awards Daily]

•  Gerard Kennedy sizes up this year's Best Makeup hopefuls. [In Contention]

•  Todd Martens lays the smack down on "Beowulf" track "A Hero Comes Home."  Good.  It stinks. [Extended Play]

•  Speaking of "Beowulf," Tom O'Neil responds to the film's Oscar eligibility. [Gold Derby]

•  And Jeffrey Wells still can't seem to understand why the film isn't animation. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland tries to simplify the Oscar year once again...this time it's "The Year of the Man." [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers takes the right coast temperature at the New York premiere of "No Country for Old Men." [The Film Experience]

•  "Juno"-phile Scott Feinberg talks to Ellen Page. [And the Winner Is...]