Reading through David Carr's coverage of last night's Independent Spirit Awards, I was taken by his closing sentiments, which ring true here at the end of things.  I thought I'd point them out to you because, let's face it, it's been a tough road:

“The Savages” had a big night too, with writer/director Tamara Jenkins winning best screenplay and Philip Seymour Hoffman going home as best male lead – and the reigning belt wearer of the first annual Indie Spirit cage match.

He and Wilson had been mock-taunting each other from the podium all day and then Wilson got up to thank the crowd and then said he was coming down to settle things with Seymour Hoffman. He made good on his promise, but Seymour Hoffman, a former wrestler, was not about to be put down by a TV guy, and he ended up on top, butt slapping Wilson. It wasn’t pretty – let’s just say that both boys were selling a little crack – but it was pretty damn funny. After a season of pickets, a death in the family in the form of Heath Ledger’s passing, and just plain crabbiness, no one could say it wasn’t about time.

Actor in a Supporting Role  Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

•  David Carr runs some insular Times commentary regarind the L.A. premiere of "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Dissecting the potential "domestic strife" in screenwriter Diablo Cody's life via her tattoos.  Are we really going there? [The Envelope]

•  Todd Martens on intimate concert shindigs in lieu of sending music to Academy members. [The Envelope]

•  Sam Adams talks to the elusive Eddie Vedder about the tracks in "Into the Wild." [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to our own Anne Thompson about the Oscar derby. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone cleans up her NBR predictions. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley takes the measure of Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Terrence Howard's double-dipping potential. [Gold Rush]

•  David lunch talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ben Kawaller solicits some interesting comments from Tim Burton. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick starts his Oscar overview, focusing on the big races... [New York Post]

•  ...and follows it up with some other ponderings in his blog. [New York Post]

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

Tamara Jenkins' "The Savages" opened to raves across the board today, judging from the solid 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating and a 92% Cream of the Crop collective assessment.  This shower of praise keeps the question on the table: Will the film's familial themes appeal to the Academy enough to generate legitimate Best Picture potential?

"The Savages" has been visible for nearly a year since its bow in Sundance back in January.  The film arguably would have been better served as a surprise rather than Fox Searchlight unveiling it so early (they went into the fest with the film in hand, it wasn't a purchased commodity).  Then again, Sundance was the perfect environment for this little ditty and what's done is done.  Moot point.

The studio now finds itself in a situation similar to Paramount Vantage: Which film to highlight?  The Buzzmeter has finally caught up to the potential of "Juno" in the big race, and when that film opens next month, the critical community will likely go as ga-ga as they have for "Savages."  Searchlight has sent screeners of each of their titles to the memberships of various entities.  And while it's foolish to think studios think in the "one film, one campaign" frame of mind, it's also naive to think a decision doesn't need to be made.

Whatever the case, "The Savages" rules the day for now.

David Poland hasn't even taken a minute to let the film settle before going all out and writing a 1,800-word review of "Charlie Wilson's War."  It actually reads like he didn't take a minute, too, but in any case, he sings the praises of Phil Hoffman, calls Wilson a "perfect fit" for Tom Hanks and considers Julia Roberts "miscast" (doing his usual "so and so would have been better" routine).

Overall, he doesn't seem to have been impressed.

Jeffrey Wells, meanwhile, is okay with the film being "very good but not great," calls Hoffman a "lock" for a Best Supporting Actor nomination.

At a concise and seemingly amputated 97 minutes, "Charlie Wilson's War" may have surprised more than a few of tonight's press-heavy crowd when the credits suddenly rolled at Universal's first major west coast exhibition of the film this evening.

That's not to say they didn't like it (judging by a modest but warm round of applause), or that there isn't anything to like about the film.  There was plenty of laughter throughout (mostly at the lines delivered by Phillip Seymour Hoffman's cut-throat Gust Avrakotos) and a generaly air of enjoyment in the crowd.  But when reactions start to hit the net later this evening, tomorrow morning or later into the week (here's a knee-jerk from yours truly), I expect a number of the Oscar-watching readership to realize that we're all guilty of building buzz too strongly, hustling to anoint something a "frontrunner" based on pedigree, all in the name of forecasting a scenario that proves itself malleable and ignorant of hard and fast rules year in and year out.

Anyway, I won't make any declarations in this space, but we'll see what the critics and awards analysts have to say soon enough.  For now, Tom O'Neil, who was at the New York screening of the film earlier this evening, has some thoughts up.

In today's Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope, it seems "Juno" has moved into the top five Best Picture considerations, while Paul Dano has lept up into the supporting actor fray.

I'm tempted to go along with the latter once again (while I've already been on board for the former) because it seems to be, if anything, a situation where an explosive leading performance pulls the supporting portrayal along for the awards ride -- no matter the perception out there that Dano might be somewhat out of his league.

It seems to recall Ethan Hawke's nomination alongside Denzel Washington in "Training Day."  Though, in this viewer's mind, Hawke's performance there has only been matched by his work this year in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Other buzz gainers include JamesMcAvoy and Vanessa Regrave for "Atonement" and Ridley Scott for "American Gangster."  Mike Nichols took a tumble in the director ranks for "Charlie Wilson's War" and, indeed, his film only show up in one other category chart: Best Supporting Actor, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Take a look at the update.  I'm thinking about gathering up all the info from the Gurus o' Gold, the Sultans of Bling and the Buzzmeter to see what an overall consensus would look like.

Jeez, I totally just sounded like a dork.

I moderated a Q&A last night with Laura Linney and Tamara Jenkins for "The Savages," one of Fox Searchlight's hopefuls this awards season and Jenkins' first feature film since "Slums of Beverly Hills" nine years ago.

The crowd was mostly WGA, with some SAG members here and there.  Questions centered on Jenkins' obvious impusle to write about familial matters (a trend that stretches back to her student film days), the casting process that yielded Philip Bosco's surprising turn and Linney's on-set rapport with Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

The crowd wanted to know a number of insights, picking out nuances from the screenplay (Hoffman's character crying over a plate of cooked eggs, the use of seemingly Peter Pan-inspired character names Wendy and Jon).  One viewer was curious as to whether there was much improvisation involved in making the environment seem so true and genuine.  Apparently, there wasn't.  Jenkins charmed the crowd with her shoot-from-the-hip humor and everyone seemed to hold a considerable amount of respect for Linney and her portrayal.

Following the screening, the usual fawning from the crowd greeted the filmmaker and her star with this intimate note of gratitude or that, but I was really struck by one woman who brought Jenkins aside to tell her how much the screening hit home, and how the film felt so authentic, as her own father had passed away a few months back.

"The Savages" has been in the ether for nearly 12 months now, ever since a bow in Sundance back in January.  It's beginning the crucial guild/Academy screening circuit now, and reactions like this may be key if the film is going to make a play on the major categories.  The older-skewing Academy is, after all, at that age where dealing with life without one's parents, watching mothers and fathers get older and taking responsibility for loved ones is part of the daily consciousness.