The final Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope should come with a caveat.  Many of the participants in the collective have their own websites, and predictions could change before the announcement of Tuesday's nominees.  And in a race this tight, who can blame them?

The collective is going with Best Picture snubs for "Atonement" and "Into the Wild," but Emile Hirsch and Joe Wright make appearances nontheless.  I'm not sure how that works, but anyway, take a look.

Variety looks at the acting races this weekend with an Awards Season Focus: 10 stories, all built around the thespians.

To kick it off, Stu Levine surveys the dark horse Oscar hopefuls that grabbed Golden Globe nominations, James McAvoy ("Atonement") and Helena Bonham Carter ("Sweeney Todd") among them.  But it begs the question, and not just for the dark horses that already need all the publicity they can get: Will contenders simply be hurting themselves by not showing up?  The dress rehearsal for Oscar is always the acceptance speech at a Golden Globe ceremony, so...just sayin...

Anyway, continuing, Robert Hofler gets into comedic performances getting the shaft, while Peter Debruge takes a healthy look at critical consensus building for various portrayals.  Despite consensus, however, Robert Abele wonders whether old-timers like Frank Langella ("Starting Out in the Evening") or youthful hopefuls like Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") could step in and surprise a la Adrien Brody's 2002 victory for "The Pianist."

There's also a great piece from Sandee Angulo Chen about the modern abandonment of Method acting technique, but take a look at the full range of stories, there's plenty to chew on.

In a month given to superlatives lists, this post at New York Magazine's Vulture blog gets my vote for best blog entry of the year.

The entry is a response to a New York Observer story about Hollywood's willingness this year to rock out with its c*** out.
There are plenty of chuckle-inducing wang awards throughout, but here are the Oscar-related ones, I suppose:

Fiercest Wang: Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises. In Mortensen's much-talked-about naked knife-fight scene, he skillfully used his wang to create a diversion. It worked. On us, anyway.

Most Committed to Wangs: Judd Apatow, who has vowed to put wangs in all of his films, like he does with Seth Rogen.

Best Foreign-Language Wang: Tony Leung, Lust, Caution. Unfortunately, not even its NC-17 rating, full-frontal nudity, and violent, kinky sex scenes were enough to make Ang Lee's three-hour Chinese-language drama about the Japanese occupation of Shanghai in the thirties a box-office hit, proving once again that American moviegoers are a bunch of culture-less prudes.

Wang Most in Need of a Sandwich: Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild. Thanks to some cold water and the fact that Hirsch's character is in the midst of dying of starvation, his nude scene was not all that it could've been, tragically.

Best Wang in a Musical or Comedy: Sacha Baron Cohen, Sweeney Todd. Baron Cohen's "augmented" member is so huge and so tightly constricted by the pants he's wearing, it very nearly distracts from his excellent performance. Actually, it steals the movie.

Best Wang-Related Credit Sequence: Superbad.

Much as I hate to put a damper on Mr. Hirsch's SAG nomination this morning by linking to a jest of his junk, I have to say that "Wang Most in Need of a Sandwich" is a phrase that will have me laughing for the rest of the holiday -- easily.

Also, with all this in mind, I can't help but wonder whether Viggo Mortensen's nude brawl in the bath house has at least 90% to do with his awards notices this season.

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

•  David Carr runs some insular Times commentary regarind the L.A. premiere of "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Dissecting the potential "domestic strife" in screenwriter Diablo Cody's life via her tattoos.  Are we really going there? [The Envelope]

•  Todd Martens on intimate concert shindigs in lieu of sending music to Academy members. [The Envelope]

•  Sam Adams talks to the elusive Eddie Vedder about the tracks in "Into the Wild." [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to our own Anne Thompson about the Oscar derby. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone cleans up her NBR predictions. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley takes the measure of Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Terrence Howard's double-dipping potential. [Gold Rush]

•  David lunch talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ben Kawaller solicits some interesting comments from Tim Burton. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick starts his Oscar overview, focusing on the big races... [New York Post]

•  ...and follows it up with some other ponderings in his blog. [New York Post]

•  "Into the Wild" wins the season's first major Best Picture prize at the Gotahm Awards. [Variety]

•  David Carr reports from the scene. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Anne Thompson racks up "No Country" talk across the web, including this and that about the film's ending. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Martin Grove speaks up on behalf of Christopher Plummer's performance in "Man in the Chair." [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  T.L. Stanley blogs the campaign strategy for the performance. [Gold Rush]

•  Tom O'Neil compares the Gothams and the Indie Spirits. [Gold Derby]

•  Ramin Satoodeh was no fan of "Charlie Wilson's War." [The Gold Digger]

•  Nathaniel Rogers runs down a list great performances in not-so-great films. [The Film Experience]

•  Anne Thompson on the recent Variety screening of "The Savages" with Laura Linney and Tamara Jenkins Q&A. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Brian Kinsley points us to a couple of below-the-radar contenders.  I like the "Persepolis" mention for Best Adapted Screenplay. [In Contention]

•  Todd Martens gets into the tracks of "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story." [Extended Play]

•  The Envelope has officially gone off the deep end with its awards season content: I give you, a gallery of the top 9 dinner scenes of the year? [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds to an item from yours truly, stirs the waters of his comments section in the process. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  While at Jeffrey's site, I came across this interesting piece regarding potential inspirations for Cormac McCarthy's "No Country for Old Men." [Anti-Dis-Arts-And-Entertainmentalism]

•  David Poland has taken to iPosting, and his wheels are spinning about the box office of "Beowulf." [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, in the fifth of a superlative on-going Oscar column, sizes up musicals at the Oscars. [The Film Experience]

•  Checking names off his interview wish lists, Scott Feinberg gets ahold of veteran Max von Sydow to discuss "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [And the Winner Is...]

•  Lou Lumenick gets around to "There Will Be Blood," is dazzled by Daniel Day-Lewis' performance. [New York Post]

•  Susan Wloszczyna talks to Josh Brolin about that silly "overnight success" story business.  Anyone seen "The Goonies???" [USA Today]

Eddie Vedder popped up tonight outside the Paramount theater for a modest crowd, performing songs from the "Into the Wild" soundtrack after a screening of the film.  And he killed.

Sean Penn and Emile Hirsch introduced Vedder to the crowd, which included a who's who of the entertainment industry: Cameron Crowe, Ringo Starr, Mark Ruffalo, Emilio Estevez and Wynona Rider among them.  Vedder cranked out "Guaranteed," "Rise Up," "No Ceiling" and "Society" before steering into Pearl Jam B-side "Drifting" as well as "You've Got to Hide Your Love Away" from the "I Am Sam" soundtrack.

Watching the performance from maybe five or six feet away and studying Vedder's face, I suddenly felt the sensation that this fixture of the grunge era had hit a new stride in his musical and lyrical career.  Something more textured, fuller, perhaps more mature.  There's no arguing that his is one of the great voices in rock history and that he can turn a lyric with the best of them, but what Vedder has accomplished on the "Wild" soundtrack is possibly the crowning jewel of the film.  Tonight was a testament to that.

The singer is showing aging, but not necessarily showing his age.  The lines are there, the years of celebrity and activism taking their toll, perhaps.  In any case, it was with a strange combination of sadness and pride that I watched a rock star fully embody this new, more cultivated phase of his career this evening.

I chatted briefly with the film's editor, Jay Cassidy, about his journey with Penn on each of the actor/director's works.  I also caught up with Penn himself, who said he was certainly feeling the toll of the awards campaign, but nonetheless, he seemed like he could take any given event by the horns then and there, regardless of fatigue.

A good event all around for Paramount Vantage, who is in high gear on a campaign that could lead all the way to a Best Picture nomination for the film.  We shall see.

(Photo courtesy of Hollywood Elsewhere)

So we're not into predictions here at Variety, and that's not what I'm aiming at with this post.  But I do think it might be worth mulling over the three films Paramount Vantage has primed for major Oscar attention in some sort of level-headed fashion -- because it's been eating at me.

The studio is actually pushing five films for awards this year, but I don't think it's out of the question to overlook "A Mighty Heart" and "Margot at the Wedding" when it comes to Best Picture speculation.  So I will.

As noted last week, "There Will Be Blood" screened Thursday night to a few journos in Los Angeles and we're bound by blood and honor to keep a lid on it.  Fine, fair enough...I'll just let this casual diversion of the conversation to the other two titles say what I'm thinking about the Oscar chances of Paul Thomas Anderson's film -- sans personal opinion.

So we're down to "The Kite Runner" and "Into the Wild."  Both films have their fans, both seem to be the right contenders to hit the soft-spot demographic of the Academy.  It's been a while since I saw each of them, but I have to say that I'm starting to get the feeling Vantage would be better served by shoving all of their efforts behind the latter.

To start, there's a lot of charisma to work with (duh).  Emile Hirsch is the baby face, Sean Penn is the bad-boy actor-turned-director and Eddie Vedder is the grunge frontman considering an appearance in his first music video in 15 years for one of the film's tracks.  Oh, and don't forget loveable Hal Holbrook, who is coming to town in November to spice up the awards campaign.

Vantage is rallying the troops with screenings and events and, frankly, seems to be showing its hand that THIS is their contender.  But "The Kite Runner" hit a little hiccup on the way to a November release date (since pushed to December), so it makes sense that there isn't a lot of smoke around that title just yet.

I'm not a fan of "The Kite Runner" at all, mind you.  I think it is schmaltz of the highest order -- and this comes from a guy who loved "Finding Neverland."  So I'm not a cynical curmudgeon.  It's just too clinical in its tendency to hammer those golden-hued moments and themes, and sue me if I think the Academy would rather go with something that digs a little deeper.  You won't have a hard time finding someone who's seen the film and thinks it is right up the AMPAS' alley, but I'm skeptical.

I'm also no fan of "Into the Wild," by the way.  How's that for disclosure?  I loved, loved, LOVED Jon Krakauer's book, but thought Sean Penn's passion for Chris McCandless overshadowed craft and technique in the end.  But that's what the Academy loves so much, right?  Passion?  You can't take that away from the film, and from a guy who thought it wasn't really in the race upon seeing the final product, I have to say it's looking like a top tier candidate lately.