DGA speculation
Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees. According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).
The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy. Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so. That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure. The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them. Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.
Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included. You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.
No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions. (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.) Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.
Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG. One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.
Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down"). "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.
Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison. Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS. Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.
There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates. Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."
Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings. But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?
Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?
Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express"). David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."
The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks. A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.
But the safe bet always seems to surface, no? Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.
What do I know, right? Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road. Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988. You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.
As part of the weekend's 
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Red Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email 
