Actor in a Leading Role  Johnny Depp
Art Direction  Dante Ferretti (Art Direction); Francesca Lo Schiavo (Set Decoration)
Costume Design  Colleen Atwood

The hunt for the Best Actor trophy has been an interesting one all year long.

At one point along the way, somebody out there floated the idea that nothing seemed strong enough to compete with Daniel Day-Lewis or Johnny Depp and that the race was likely between those two scenery-chewing performances.  That settled into the conventional wisdom for a spell, then George Clooney began to take down critics award after critics award, making him in that hunt to say the least.  But Clooney just won the Oscar two years ago for "Syriana," albeit a supporting trophy.  And then Depp couldn't manage a nomination from the guild that gave him a win in this category fur years ago for playing a pirate.

All of this is the long way of getting to today's conventional wisdom, which is that Daniel Day-Lewis has the win in the bag.  It's been nearly 20 years since "My Left Foot," the performance is one for the ages, the movie is burning up the critical scene like wildfire.  In a season determined to be elusive (does ANYONE have a convincing argument for one of the films in play taking Best Picture?), maybe we can all finally put this one to bed.

But...still...I've done this long enough to know that things aren't always as they seem.

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

The Envelope's Tom O'Neil hustled me to the fringes of last night's "Sweeney" soirée to talk the Oscar race.  Here's the mp3.  Mind you I had just zipped over there after taking a final that had capably knocked the wind out of me, so who knows what I said.  Good news is I was only on beer #1.

Tom also got Johnny Depp and Stephen Sondheim on the record.

I told Johnny Depp he was beautiful last night.  Kind of fell out.  Not in any stalker-ish way, just sort of happened: "Johnny, you're beautiful, man, nice work in the film."

Weird.  Freudian?  I don't know.  But he is a pretty man...

Anyway, big, huge, massive crowd yesterday evening at the event, which immediately followed a screening of "Sweeney Todd."  I missed the movie due to another committment, but zipped on over for the reception just in time to be whisked away by Tom O'Neil for a Gold Derby podcast (God knows what I said in that thing).  I lost track of the money men and women in the crowd at some point: Joel Silver, Rita Wilson, Gary Shandling, James Franco, Sacha Baron Cohen, Steven Spielberg, David Geffen, and, of course, Depp (in a rare publicity appearance), Burton and the man himself, Stephen Sondheim.

I did manage to find out what grosses Depp and Burton out, by the way.  Nothing explosive, but hey, it seemed a fitting question.

For Depp, it's boogers.  Not a fan.  He didn't even hesitate.  Burton took a little extra time, however.  He didn't seem to have anything in mind until he apparently flashed back to childhood and proclaimed forced schooling as something that grossed him out.  Fair enough, dark one.

The crowd seemed enthusiastic (who wouldn't be?).  I mingled with Anne Thompson long enough to exchange unpleasantries on "I Am Legend" before getting out of dodge, but it was good times all around.  O'Neil told me the crowd stayed in their seats, transfixed after the credits rolled -- but we all know how much Tom O loves this thing, so who knows.  I wouldn't say it's a stretch, though, as the mood was an excited and jovial one.

Lots of heavy-hitters on board for this thing, though.  Lots.

(Note: Of course that's not a pic of Depp from the event last night, but that IS the same fedora he was sporting.  My camera wasn't in tow, so this is the best I can offer.  Cheers.)

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

First and foremost, Jeffrey Wells has written perhaps the most schizophrenic review of his career.  In one fell swoop he both calls the film "lifting," "arousing" and a Best Picture "lock," while at the same time considering it "so near yet so far" due to director Tim Burton's insistence on a bloody gore-fest.

Take out the general enthusiasm and you have my view entirely.  Buried somewhere in that review is the dichotomy the film presents, the depth of metaphor and potential that is perhaps rendered lifeless due to one-dimensionality.  But I'll get to those notions elsewhere.

David Poland also went ga-ga, claiming that Johnny Depp is "still likely to win" Best Actor, but that the film "is a very, very hard movie to judge objectively as someone who knows and loves the show."

And David Carr -- The Carpetbagger -- didn't exactly do cartwheels, but says that "Tim Burton’s evocation of darkest London was on par with the film version of Paris in 'Moulin Rouge.'"  He says the film has a tough road to hoe for a Best Picture nomination, but that "Johnny Depp will sing and slice his way into the best actor category with alacrity."

•  Variety has a SAG Awards preview, including Zachary Pincus-Roth's chat with casting directors about finding the right balance in front of the camera. [Variety]

•  According to Tom O'Neil, Russell Crowe will be competing against himself in the lead category at the Golden Globes. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone catches up to "Charlie Wilson's War." [Awards Daily]

•  Pete Hammond scopes out the screening and Q&A scene, including a "rare" appearance by Jack Nicholson in front of the SAG earlier in the week. [The Envelope]

•  Gerard Kennedy surveys the Best Film Editing landscape. [In Contention]

•  Brian Kinsley makes some Golden Globe comedy/musical predictions. [In Contention]

•  Todd McCarthy digs into "The Golden Compass." [Variety]

•  So does David Poland. [The Hot Blog]

•  Poland also has lunch with the stars of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [The Hot Blog]

•  Martin Grove, meanwhile, talks to director Julian Schnabel. [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  The Gurus o' Gold make acting category calls. [Movie City News]

•  The year's first top 10 list surfaces...well, top 50.  [Paste Magazine]

•  Lou Lumenick calls "Atonement" the "most achingly romantic movie since 'Titanic.'" [New York Post]

•  Peter Knegt makes another set of predictions. [indieWIRE]

•  Oh yeah, and non-review reactions to "Sweeney Todd," from Tom O'Neil... [Gold Derby]

•  ...and yours truly. [In Contention]

•  In a fantastic column, Nathaniel Rogers contemplates a 1999-like middle-brow Oscar response to a high-brow year, expresses doubts for the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" (finally someone joining me in being even-handed about that film's Oscar potential) and Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood." [The Film Experience]

•  Anne Thompson comments on a record-breaking weekend for "American Gangster." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks "No Country" with Josh Brolin. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Also passes on some second-hand information about Amy Adams' supposedly awards-quality performance drowning in the "timidity" of "Enchanted." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Michael Ordoña talks to Best Supporting Actor contender Paul Dano about taking risks, passion and "There Will Be Blood." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Rachel Abramowitz spit-balls "Persepolis" with the brilliant Marjane Satrapi. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Chris Lee spotlights Will Smith and "I Am Legend."  (Here's a crazy idea: supposing Francis Lawrence and Akiva Goldsman didn't rape and pillage Richard Matheson's brilliant work, could Smith be a surprise lead actor contender?  Seriously.  It's a fantastic role.  Well -- yeah - I guess it IS Francis Lawrence and Akiva Goldsman.) [Los Angeles Times]

•  Rounding up the holiday movie love fest, Gina Piccalo talks "The Golden Compass" with director Chris Weitz. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Caryn James gets into the subject of violence in the season's cinema.  I just finished a piece for this trade on the VERY SAME SUBJECT.  At least we're all on the same page...it'll be a Bloody Christmas indeed. [New York Times]

•  Sylviane Gold talks to Stephen Sondheim, Tim Burton and Johnny Depp about "Sweeney Todd." [New York Times]