You can get your predictions fix in a thousad different quarters this weeekend.  There's David Carr, David Poland, the Gurus o' Gold, Gurus 2.0, the Buzzmeter, hell, even George Clooney has taken a stab.  And don't forget Sasha Ston'e mega-compilation chart, which rounds up a ton of voices for your perusing delight.

In all of that prognosticative commotion, you're bound to see this eyebrow-raising declartion or that, but nothing -- and I mean nothing compares to Tom O'Neil's out-on-a-limb prediction that Clooney will upset a steam-rolling Daniel Day-Lewis in the Best Actor category.  Whaaa?

Yeah, he's going there.  But he isn't doing so sans explanation.  According to O'Neil, who recently posted his reasoning at Gold Derby, Hollywood's man-crush on Clooney might just win out in the end.  He also focuses on the Reel Geezers, who were somewhat dismissive of Day-Lewis and "There Will Be Blood," but made sweet, sweet voting love to Clooney and "Michael Clayton."

Take a look:

The reason that the shockeroos occur is because Hollywooders are a bull-headed, contrary-minded lot and often they don't tip their cards. They also don't like to admit that they're going against the pack — everybody's got to be a team player, after all — but, alone at home where no one is looking and with sly smirks on their faces, they fool Oscarwatchers now and then by checking off their ballots for Marcia Gay Harden or Juliette Binoche.

And read the rest!

By the way, there's at least one more random prediction in the major categories out there: Liz Smith of the New York Post, who declares Best Actress contender Laura Linney the ultimate victor.  Woah.

I have to say, kudos to Greg Ellwood and Sheigh Crabtree for doing such a great job in rounding up a wide array of voices for this year's Buzzmeter at The Envelope.  I think the collective has been more accurate than other such experiments this season, and now, the final tally has been revealed.

There aren't many surprises to be had on the whole, but you'll be interested to find some singular shockers.  Like Tom O'Neil's prediction that George Clooney will trump Daniel Day-Lewis in the Best Actor rave, for instance.  Creative Screenwriting's Jeff Goldsmith went a little crazy in the animated feature race, picking "Persepolis" over "Ratatouille," while local journo Sam Rubin goes REALLY wild, taking Jason Reitman for a stunner in Best Director.

Check it all out here.

Well...virtual Ernest Borngine, that is:

BEST ACTOR: George Clooney, Michael Clayton

"Oh, I know Daniel Day-Lewis has all the momentum -- but Jesus, what was that movie about? It scared me! His mustache scared me! And what the hell is he talking about milkshakes for if he's an oilman? I liked Johnny Depp as Sweeney Razorhands -- oh, no, wait, different movie -- and I turned Eastern Promises off after the second cut throat, so good luck Viggo Mortensen. I love Tommy Lee, but who the hell saw that movie? Heck, who can pronounce it? And Clooney is a real old-school movie star; heck, he must be good if they named the movie after his character!"

Check out the rest at Cinematical.

•  With the Indie Spirits fast approaching, Anne Thompson points us to an interview with "I'm Not There" casting director Laura Rosenthal. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Sasha Stone takes in the IMDb polls to get a leg up on predicting who's going to win what. [Awards Daily]

•  Oh, but wait -- she finds another poll with an even bigger pool of participants from AOL. [Awards Daily]

•  Jeffrey Wells also digs that eleventh hour "Jesse James" ad for Casey Affleck. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Dennis Lim writes up the largely fresh crop of helmers nominated for Best Director this year. [The Envelope]

•  Now that yesterday's big wave of confirmed Oscar presenters has been revealed, Tom O'Neil ponders who will present what. [Gold Derby]

•  In case you missed it, David Carr looks into the field of lead actor contenders and thinks against the grain of the Day-Lewis foregone conclusion. [The Carpetbagger]

•  John Horn spends some quality time with Best Adapted Screenplay nominee Sarah Polley. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Meanwhile, source authors for much of the year's contenders get noe respect, says Daniel Ulin. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Mat Fraser isn't too happy with BAFTA brass feeling "uncomfortable" with screening Richard Butchins' "The Last American Freak Show." [Guardian]

•  From the weekend, David Gritten wonders whether Daniel Day-Lewis is a considerable talent or merely a ham. [Daily Telegraph]

Actor in a Leading Role Daniel Day-Lewis
Art Direction Jack Fisk (Art Direction); Jim Erickson (Set Decoration)
Cinematography Robert Elswit
Directing Paul Thomas Anderson
Film Editing Dylan Tichenor
Best Picture JoAnne Sellar, Paul Thomas Anderson and Daniel Lupi, Producers
Sound Editing Christopher Scarabosio and Matthew Wood
Writing (Adapted Screenplay) Written by Paul Thomas Anderson

(This wraps up our nominees series.  Hopefully it brought back some good memories for viewers and voters alike.  Four more days until polls close!)

We all knew who the WGA winners were going to be, given the slip up with announcing the nominees in order of vote tally.  But I decide to hit the beach for the early part of this weekend, and BAFTA goes and shoots its accidental load all over the net.

Tom O'Neil is pointing us to BAFTA's website announcing the winners in advance, and Sasha Stone is doing the same.  "Atonement," of course, will be taking Best Film, while Daniel Day-Lewis ("There Will Be Blood") and Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") took top acting honors.  The Coen brothers willt ake Best Director.

"Will take."  I sound like I'm Nostradamus.  But hey, apparently, it's true!

I love how devilish and downright evil Daniel Day-Lewis looks in this shot, which is currently being used for Oscar publicity here at Variety.  Look at that face:

UPDATE:  Well, credit where credit is due.  It turns out the Philadelphia Inquirer's Steven Rea revealed this bit about the origins of the milkshake speech back on Jan. 16.  How did I miss that?

EARLIER: Yes, yes -- "I drink your milkshake" has entered the fim lore lexicon as one of the all time badass phrases to be quoted from here until the ends of the earth.  IDrinkYourMilkshake.com has a loyal following and you can have you're own email address from the site (I have mine -- what about you???).  Meanwhile. there's an extremely popular YouTube mashup out there grabbing tons of page views.  But the phenomenon itself has spiraled out of control while no one has really dug into the matter.

Well, Scott Bowles of USA Today has done a nice job of tracking it down, including unearthing some interesting history behind the phrase.  Take a look:

New York magazine even offers a user's guide to the phrase. It suggests using it as sports metaphor ("The Celtics drank the Knicks' milkshake last night"), a sexual double entendre or a taunt, as in "You'd best back down before I drink your milkshake."

Anderson concedes that he's puzzled by the phenomenon — particularly because the lines came straight from a transcript he found of the 1924 congressional hearings over the Teapot Dome scandal, in which Sen. Albert Fall was convicted of accepting bribes for oil-drilling rights to public lands in Wyoming and California.

In explaining oil drainage, Fall's "way of describing it was to say 'Sir, if you have a milkshake and I have a milkshake and my straw reaches across the room, I'll end up drinking your milkshake,' " Anderson says. "I just took this insane concept and used it."

Read the rest!

I got this note about last night's DGA awards this morning, and had to read it twice.  Apparently, things got a bit feisty.  Well, just take a look for yourself:

Being in the room was an odd experience to say the least.  I'm sure you have heard by now the drama of the show....

An extremely drunk Sean Young heckled Julian Schnabel the moment he walked on stage to accept his medallion.  She was quickly 86'd by security and tried to throw a punch at those ejecting her from the venue.  She really ruined Julian's moment and it was kind of sad.  He looked into the audience and said "Who said that?"  She blurted out something else unintelligible and then he said "Perhaps you'd like to finish my speech," said "thank you very much" and started to step away from the podium.  He came back, of course, but it seemed he was visibly pissed and upset by the interruption.  Sort of sad, actually.  It's like you get this big moment where you're one of the 5 directors honored in a year and then some drunk ass wipe in the audience ruins a lifetime moment for you.

(Tony Gilroy item/subjective reaction to a speech stricken from the record due to ruffled feathers.)

If you're looking for more coverage of last night's festivities, Tom O'Neil has a podcast up of the Coens' acceptance speech as well as some speculation on the DGA-Oscar win percentage.  Is "No Country for Old Men" going to take this year's Best Picture award?

Also, as always, Variety has its coverage of the goings-on.

I had not seen this video of Daniel Day-Lewis expressing his regret over the loss of Heath Ledger until jus now, and it's an incredibly touching, heartfelt moment.  Really -- it brought me close to the edge, this one did.

It happened, of course, during an interview on "Oprah" earlier in the week.  Day-Lewis was there, via satellite, to promote his Oscar nominated work in "There Will be Blood," and he had just received the news of Ledge's death.  He had to take a moment and talk about his thoughts because they were aplenty, and to him, it seemed unsettling to talk about anything else at the time.

The shock waves on this thing are so rippling rather than devastating that I truly think it is one of the most caught-off-guard moments in Hollywood history.  Ledger's passing, that is.  Journalists are failing to get comments from the industry, high profile actors are bringing to the stage talk of the dangers of prescription sleep medication, and now, one of the gentlest actors you'll ever meet refuses to speak on his own work without broaching the topic.

Very chilling days.  Very odd days for the industry altogether, I would say.  I think this Oscar season, with its strike implications, its reflection of a year's worth of heavy, weighty subject matter and the passing of a young and promising actor will take a considerable toll.  We'll see.

Obviously, no live blogging happened this evening.  I was busy dealing with Dewer's rather than Jameson, but regardless, "No Country for Old Men" clearly had a dominant position at the end of the night.  Three wins, including Best Picture (I was one of the poor bastards on stage presenting the award -- top right corner...check your TiVo).

It's hard to consider the Coen brothers' film anything other than the frontrunner at this point, but there was also a clear air of "Into the Wild" respect in the room.  And with due cause, given that the Sean Penn film led the field of nominees.  Hal Holbrook in particular got a massive round of applause when his clip came up in the Best Supporting Actor category.

The only standing ovation, other than for Don Cheadle and the presentation of the first annual Joel Siegel Award, was for Daniel Day-Lewis, who gave one of the most heart-felt and honest acceptance speeches I think I've ever seen.  Half the room stood up to clap when his name was called.

The pre-show was tame to say the least, as red carpet arrivals weren't exactly earth-shattering.   George Clooney was the only star to cross the street and make time for the fans in the bleechers, a classy move from a classy guy.  Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie showed up with minutes to spare, and even had to wait in the wings to be seated after the first commercial break.

The after-party was also somewhat muted.  I bumped into Julian Schnabel, congratulated him, tried to find out why so many people think he's an asshole and came up totally digging the guy.  Don Cheadle, Cuba Gooding, Jr. and Paul Dano were milling about, but on the whole, it seemed most people checked out early.  I know for sure that Sean Penn, Eddie Vedder and Daniel Day-Lewis took off to enjoy each other's company.

And how about Day-Lewis?  The guy flew in from Dublin for the Palm Springs Film Festival Saturday (his plane broke down in Dublin and held him up considerably).  Then he flies out to New York Sunday for the presentation of the NYFCC awards, only to fly right back to Los Angeles for this evening's ceremony.  The guy hasn't slept all weekend.  What a trooper.

Anyway, the BFCA has always been a decent indicator of the eventual Oscar outcome (as you were consistently reminded of throughout the telecast).  This leaves many thinking "No Country for Old Men" has it in the bag, but even tonight there were industry people doubting its chances for a nomination...industry people who know from an Oscar season.  I'm not brave enough to say that much, but I do think this is going to be the first year in a while where the BFCA Best Picture winner didn't match up with Oscar.  But we'll see.  There's still plenty of time left for this film or that to turn up the campaign heat.

For tonight, in any case, the Coens rule the season.

The hunt for the Best Actor trophy has been an interesting one all year long.

At one point along the way, somebody out there floated the idea that nothing seemed strong enough to compete with Daniel Day-Lewis or Johnny Depp and that the race was likely between those two scenery-chewing performances.  That settled into the conventional wisdom for a spell, then George Clooney began to take down critics award after critics award, making him in that hunt to say the least.  But Clooney just won the Oscar two years ago for "Syriana," albeit a supporting trophy.  And then Depp couldn't manage a nomination from the guild that gave him a win in this category fur years ago for playing a pirate.

All of this is the long way of getting to today's conventional wisdom, which is that Daniel Day-Lewis has the win in the bag.  It's been nearly 20 years since "My Left Foot," the performance is one for the ages, the movie is burning up the critical scene like wildfire.  In a season determined to be elusive (does ANYONE have a convincing argument for one of the films in play taking Best Picture?), maybe we can all finally put this one to bed.

But...still...I've done this long enough to know that things aren't always as they seem.

•  "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac" top a critics poll of the year's best. [indieWIRE]

•  Gerard Kennedy surveys the top contenders for Best Original Song. [In Contention]

•  Award Central begins its Golden Globes countdown in the Features department. [Variety]

•  Pete Hammond weighs in on SAG and the blows felt by "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd" yesterday. [The Envelope]

•  But Tom O'Neil makes sure it's clear that the winner of Best Cast doesn't always forecast the winner of Best Picture. [Gold Derby]

•  And David Poland is bored with the announcement, as usual. [The Hot Blog]

•  Sasha Stone has a comparison chart for contending performances this Oscar season across three awards-giving bodies. [Awards Daily]

•  Gurus 2.0 go on the record again, pre-SAG, having hastily knocked "Into the Wild" down far too many pegs in response to the HFPA near shut-out. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers can't get "Sweeney" tunes out of his head. [The Film Experience]

•  Hank Rosenfeld draws out the similarities between Nicole Kidman's evil Ms. Coulter ("The Golden Compass") and conservative nut-job Ann Coulter. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Scott Bowles gets in some quality time with Daniel Day-Lewis. [USA Today]

•  And a final list of awards designations before the holiday, courtesy of yours truly. [In Contention]

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

•  Warner Bros. unleashes the high def tailer for "The Dark Knight" onto a salivating web-geek community. [A Taste for the Theatrical]

•  Pete Hammond keeps those speculative wheels spinning on Will Smith's "I Am Legend" turn. [The Envelope]

•  That's probably because the film shattered box office records this weekend. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil calls the Lond critics noms "curious."  Why, because they strayed from the herd? [Gold Derby]

•  The American Film Institute sticks with the herd. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and gets into the ins and outs of Daniel Day-Lewis' wardrobe choices. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland gets into the specifics of the year's top ten lists. [The Hot Blog]

•  Speaking of top tens, yours truly adds his opinion to the collective. [In Contention]

•  Jesse Green gets into Stephen Sondheim and "Sweeney Todd" at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Richard Berke, meanwhile, reports on screenplay alterations that led to something of a white-washed "Charlie Wilson's War," among other things. [New York Times]

•  Glenn Kenny also does "Wilson," with director Mike Nichols. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Sasha Stone points us to a massive collection of FYC ads (though hers is still fabulous). [Awards Daily]

•  "Juno" seems to have a new fan site on the web. [And the Winner Is...]

•  Speaking of which, star Ellen Page fields unnecessary "Knocked Up" comparisons at New York Magazine. [Vulture]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

The New York Film Critics Circle had absolutely no surprises in store today, handing "No Country for Old Men" four awards, including one for Best Pic.

Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert Elswit represented Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood," which swept the LA critics' awards yesterday, while Julie Christie positioned herself again as the competition for Marion Cotillard in the Best Actress race (where's Ellen Page been this whole time?).  Amy Ryan also continues to scorch the earth as THE supporting actress frontrunner of the year.

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was surprisingly snubbed throughout.  Nothing, also, for Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," a Gotham film if there ever was one.  The director did, however, pick up a lifetime achievement award.

This weekend's activity and today's awards have put "No Country' and "Blood" at the top of everyone's rontrunner lists for Oscar, two brutal, cold films that are not the Academy pedigree at all.  But perhaps the critics will muscle them into the dance if this continues to be the case, each of them constantly duking it out.  Tomorrow, the Broadcast Film Critics Association announces its list of nominees, always a pretty good indication of where the Academy will ultimately go.

The full list of NYFCC winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Cinematographer: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Documentary: "No End in Sight"
Best First Film: Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"
Best Animated Film: "Persepolis"
Best Foreign Film: "The Lives of Others"
Lifetime Achievement Award: Sidney Lumet
Special Critics' Award: Charles Burnett, "Killer of Sheep"

The Envelope grabbed the scoop on the LAFCA winners.

First and foremost, Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood" got a giant kiss and a HUGE Oscar boost from the group, taking down four wins, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor.

There was no love for "No Country for Old Men," which stuns me, frankly.  Not even in the runner-up arenas.  I spoke to a colleague last week who predicted the critics groups might shy away from the film with the NBR tapping it as the best film of the year, but I shrugged that thought off in a hurry.

Anyway, regardless of all of that, this show of solidarity for Anderson's film is significant to say the least.  The film came pretty close to sweeping, grabbing three runner-up mentions in addition to the four wins.

Also, Amy Ryans grabbed her third supporting actress win in as many awards announcements.  Nothing so far for the perceived frontrunner coming into the season, Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (aside from a runner-up mention from the LAFCA).

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" looks to have been the group's second-place fave, coming in just behind "Blood" in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  And as expected, the LAFCA went against the grain (typically willful) by going with Vlad Ivanov's supporting performance in "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days."  It's a good choice, because Ivanov is so unsettling in the film.

Variety has a write-up.  Here's the full list of winners:

Best Picture: "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening")

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
(runner-up: Anamaria Marinca, "4 Months, 3 Months and 2 Days")

Best Supporting Actor: Vlad Ivanov, "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
(runner-up: Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild")

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
(runner-up: Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There")

Best Screenplay: Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
(runner-up: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Animation: (tie -- boooo) "Persepolis"/"Ratatouille"

Best Foreign Language Film: "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
(runner-up: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Documentary/Non-fiction Film: "No End in Sight"
(runner-up: "Sicko")

Best Production Design: Jack Fisk, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Dante Ferretti, "Sweeney Todd")

Best Music: Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, "Once"
(runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
(runner-up: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Douglas Edwards Indie Award: "Colossal Youth" directed by Pedro Costa 

Best Career Achievement: Sidney Lumet

•  Jeffrey Wells draws a rather...definitive line between this year's Best Picture contending product. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Anne Thompson offers some thoughts on the supposed non-campaign campaign for "Atonement." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  David Poland flails about wildly and takes Thompson's comparisons to other Oscar epics WAY too seriously on his way to being "a dick about it." (his words, not mine) [The Hot Blog]

•  Susan King talks method and "Blood" with Best Actor hopeful (frontrunner?) Daniel Day-Lewis. [The Envelope]

•  Romanian Oscar entry "4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days" wins big at the European Film Awards. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil responds... [Gold Derby]

•  ...then he chats it up with "Lust, Caution" helmer Ang Lee... [Gold Derby]

•  ...and Best Supporting Actress hopeful Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone"). [Gold Derby]

•  Ramin Setoodeh responds to "Sweeney Todd," calls it "good, not great." [The Gold Digger]

•  Sasha Stone thinks "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" is a formiddable contender in the Oscar race.  Duh! [Awards Daily]

•  Rebecca Ascher-Walsh forecasts indie Oscar hopefuls. [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  Anne Thompson on the recent Variety screening of "The Savages" with Laura Linney and Tamara Jenkins Q&A. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Brian Kinsley points us to a couple of below-the-radar contenders.  I like the "Persepolis" mention for Best Adapted Screenplay. [In Contention]

•  Todd Martens gets into the tracks of "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story." [Extended Play]

•  The Envelope has officially gone off the deep end with its awards season content: I give you, a gallery of the top 9 dinner scenes of the year? [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds to an item from yours truly, stirs the waters of his comments section in the process. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  While at Jeffrey's site, I came across this interesting piece regarding potential inspirations for Cormac McCarthy's "No Country for Old Men." [Anti-Dis-Arts-And-Entertainmentalism]

•  David Poland has taken to iPosting, and his wheels are spinning about the box office of "Beowulf." [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, in the fifth of a superlative on-going Oscar column, sizes up musicals at the Oscars. [The Film Experience]

•  Checking names off his interview wish lists, Scott Feinberg gets ahold of veteran Max von Sydow to discuss "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [And the Winner Is...]

•  Lou Lumenick gets around to "There Will Be Blood," is dazzled by Daniel Day-Lewis' performance. [New York Post]

•  Susan Wloszczyna talks to Josh Brolin about that silly "overnight success" story business.  Anyone seen "The Goonies???" [USA Today]

It was fitting that the first major guild screening of "There Will be Blood" took place last night at the WGA theater on Doheny Blvd., considering Daniel Day-Lewis' Daniel Plainview character was based largely on oil mogul Edward Doheny (in whose Beverly Hills home the film's climactic final scene was shot).

The crowd was a mixture of numerous guilds: WGA, SAG, ASC, and, of course, press.  Applause lit up the joint upon the film's closing credits, with notable rounds swelling up for Day-Lewis' credit and, interestingly, Robert Elswit's.

When moderator David Ansen introduced Paul Thomas Anderson for the Q&A, half the crowd lept to their feet in a standing ovation.  At first sight, it seemed the film was a hit, but I looked around at those who weren't standing, and they included many older guild members, as well as at least one notable Oscar-nominated producer who sat in front of me and seemed to be scowling as he patiently awaited the noise to settle.

Indeed, the third act clearly confused a considerable portion of the crowd, leaving a great number unsettled.  I talked to a SAG member outside during the reception who said the film was "a bit much," though there was no argument from her that the performances were outstanding.

Personally speaking, the film settled very nicely on a second viewing, filling in a few of the cracks I noticed upon an initial look, embossing other areas that remain bothersome to me (notably Paul Dano's performance, though he shed some light on this when addressing the notion that he was hired to take on the role of Eli Sunday at the last minute when the first actor wasn't up to the task).

Day-Lewis was the treat for the crowd, which showed grand affection for the actor's work both during the movie (via applause and laughter) and during the Q&A.

It was good to take in some critical responses afterward.  CHUD's Devin Faraci seemed to be a big fan, but wanted a second viewing before committing a review to print.  Jeffrey Wells told me one critic asked him, puzzled, "You saw it a SECOND TIME??"

Yes, it seems there might be a critical split waiting to happen, just as appeared to be the case with the guild members in attendance last night.

“I was deeply unsettled by the script...For me, that is a sure sign. If you remain unsettled by a piece of writing, it means you are not watching the story from the outside; you’ve already taken a step toward it. When I’m drawn to something, I take a resolute step backward, and I ask myself if I can really serve this story as well as it needs to be served. If I don’t think I can do that, no matter how appealing, I will decline. What finally takes over, what took over with this movie, is an illusion of inevitability.”

**From this weekend's New York Times Magazine cover story.  I don't think any critic this year will so clearly convey what this film does to a person.

Tonight will be the first real industry test for Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood."  It screens at 7:00 for the WGA, followed by a Q&A with Anderson, Daniel Day-Lewis and Paul Dano.  I'll be sure to report back with the overall reaction.

•  As part of a big "Hollywood Goes West" collective in the Gray Lady's magazine supplement, Lynn Hirschberg profiles Daniel Day-Lewis... [New York Times]

•  ...and the Coen brothers. [New York Times]

•  Thomas Schatz spotlights the western genre (finally someone writes this story). [New York Times]

•  And thinking outside the box, director Walter Salles writes up the road trip movie. [New York Times]

•  Tom O'Neil joins the very small chorus that thinks "No Country for Old Men" is no shoo-in for a Best Picture nomination. [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers gives his Oscar predictions a November revamp. [The Film Experience]

•  Scott Feinberg talks to "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" star Matthieu Amalric. [And the Winner Is...]

•  Lou Lumenick recommends a few holiday flicks. [New York Post]

While reading through Jeffrey Wells' review today of "There Will Be Blood," I saw that he was calling composer Jonny Greenwood a "guaranteed Oscar nominee" for his admittedly brilliant and maniacal score.  My question is, can we really expect such an insular and typically traditional branch to go there?

First and foremost, this is a group of people who nominate the same in-crowd seemingly each and every time out.  There may be hope, however.  As Gerard Kennedy pointed out two weeks back, "From 2000 to 2003, only two of the twenty nominated composers were new nominees. This has changed somewhat in the past three years, as seven first-time nominees have been cited."

Second, this is a score -- by no means traditional -- that plagues the mind as much as the character of Daniel Plainview (and there's probably another blog post bouncing around in my mind asking whether there is precedent for a character so deplorable winning the Best Actor trophy).  There is a theme, but it isn't prevalent in the "John Williams school of thinking," which God love Greenwood, is a major plus.  But has the branch really matured enough to allow such uncomparable greatness to push past the mediocrity they sometimes allow?

Or, could this all be cynicism on my part?  Could the Dario Marianellis and the Alexandre Desplats, the Marco Beltramis and the Jonny Greenwoods finally be claiming their piece of the action away from long-time standards like Mr. Williams, Thomas Newman and James Horner, to name a few?  The Academy en masse has certainly made it apparent in the last two years that new blood isn't a faux pa, effortlessly handing the Oscar to Gustavo Santaolalla two years running.

Perhaps the branch is ready to adhere to such outside-the-box thinking?

Paramount Vantage showed Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood" to a mere four -- count 'em -- four members of the Los Angeles entertainment press corps last night...but don't expect any reviews yet.

That's right, we're all expected to be nice enough to hold our thoughts until the Nov. 5 unveiling of the film in San Francisco, at which point the flood gates will certainly go down in a hurry.

All of this despite the fact that the film was kinda, sorta reviewed here at Variety by a stringer out of the Fantastic Fest in Austin, mind you.  Marjorie Baumgarten of the Austin Chronicle had some thoughts in print at that outlet as well as on Variety's festival blog "The Circuit."  John DeFore, meanwhile, ran a full review out of the fest at The Hollywood Reporter.  So the sanctioned cat, if you will, is somewhat out of the bag.

But like I said...we're being nice.

More to come...