Denzel Washington stopped by the Ed Sullivan theater on Tuesday to talk up "The Great Debaters," The Weinstein Company's last minute Oscar hopeful that may or may not have found some traction with voters in the past month.

Here's part one:



And part two:

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

•  Ah, the great interview ops -- Scott Bowles corners Morgan Freeman on a schooner off of Marina Del Rey. [USA Today]

•  A bit of a stretch, but we come up with nine "scandals" this Oscar season nonetheless. [The Envelope]

•  James McAvoy talks to "Atonement" star James McAvoy. [The Envelope]

•  Creative Screenwriting's Jeff Goldsmith gets some quality time with "Lars and the Real Girl" scribe Nancy Oliver. [The Envelope]

•  Amy Adams, Jennifer Garner and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" make some serious leaps at the Buzzmeter. [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Adams, David Poland makes mention of the current media "crush" on the actress. [The Hot Blog]

•  Tom O'Neil thinks the Alliance of Film Journalists' decision to go with the macho-heavy "No Country for Old Men" is unexpected to say the least. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells takes in a Denzel Washington event at Harvard. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Nathaniel Rogers sits down with "Margot at the Wedding" star Jennifer Jason Leigh. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine closes up the year by giving Judd Apatow more publicity. [Vulture]

•  T.L. Stanley responds to Patrick Goldstein's latest blind swing at the "evil" Oscar bloggers -- more on that later. [Gold Rush]

•  Michael Wood talks to Golden Globe nominee John C. Reilly about "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story." [Los Angeles Times]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

•  Yours truly takes a look at "The Great Debaters." [In Contention]

•  Anne Thompson offers some hard Oscar knocks for "Into the Wild," "Zodiac," indicates potential awards greatness for "Enchanted." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  T.L. Stanley wonders if "August Rush" could be this year's "Mr. Holland's Opus." [Gold Rush]

•  The Envelope continues to give more and more tech category consideration due, one would assume, to Sheigh Crabtree's spirited efforts...bravo.  Today, Patrick "I hate Oscar bloggers" Goldstein talks to Harris Savides, largely about "American Gangster."  [The Envelope]

•  Meanwhile, Elizabeth Snead talks to Alexandra Byrne about the one nomination you can put money on for "Elizabeth: The Golden Age": Best Costume Design. [The Envelope]

•  Mark Olsen chats it up with Todd Haynes re: "I'm Not There." [The Envelope]

•  Choire Sicha has a profile of "Diving Bell" star Emmanuelle Seigner. [Los Angeles Times]

•  According to the AP, a judge argues against the sale of two Mark Pickford Oscars in Los Angeles county. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil updates us on what films guild and Academy members have recieved, though he leaves off the Focus titles (which shipped this week). [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells thinks Time magazine has "damned" the Oscar chances of "Charlie Wilson's War" by talking about the film with a light and whimsical syntax. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick responds to the documentary feature shortlist. [New York Post]

•  Documentary director A.J. Schnack does the same...in fact, he's a little pissed, to be quite honest. [All These Wonderful Things, indieWIRE]

•  Ryan C. Adams takes us back to "Waitress." [Awards Daily]

In today's Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope, it seems "Juno" has moved into the top five Best Picture considerations, while Paul Dano has lept up into the supporting actor fray.

I'm tempted to go along with the latter once again (while I've already been on board for the former) because it seems to be, if anything, a situation where an explosive leading performance pulls the supporting portrayal along for the awards ride -- no matter the perception out there that Dano might be somewhat out of his league.

It seems to recall Ethan Hawke's nomination alongside Denzel Washington in "Training Day."  Though, in this viewer's mind, Hawke's performance there has only been matched by his work this year in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Other buzz gainers include JamesMcAvoy and Vanessa Regrave for "Atonement" and Ridley Scott for "American Gangster."  Mike Nichols took a tumble in the director ranks for "Charlie Wilson's War" and, indeed, his film only show up in one other category chart: Best Supporting Actor, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Take a look at the update.  I'm thinking about gathering up all the info from the Gurus o' Gold, the Sultans of Bling and the Buzzmeter to see what an overall consensus would look like.

Jeez, I totally just sounded like a dork.

•  Michael Fleming, Tim Gray get into the specifics of the strike's effect on Awards shows. [Variety]

•  Gerard Kennedy talks to the muti-nominated, yet winless, cinematographer Roger Deakins about his trio of projects this season. [In Contention]

•  Elizabeth Snead talks the fashion of Cate Blanchett. [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of fashion, the Gray Lady spotlights "Control" star Sam Riley in the Style section. [New York Times]

•  Randy Kennedy sits down with Best Director hopeful Julian Schnabel. [New York Times]

•  Dave Kehr digs into the technology behind "Beowulf." [New York Times]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks with Keri Russell about "Waitress," landing on DVD later this month and still an awards push for Fox Searchlight. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Nathaniel Rogers expresses more interest in Russell Crowe's Richie Roberts than Denzel Washington's Frank Lucas. [The Film Experience]

•  Martin Grove makes a case for Frank Langella and "Starting Out in the Evening." [The Hollywood Reporter]

The Weinstein Company, which is understandably searching for a big awards contender amongst likely smaller successes in "Control" and "I'm Not There," will be pulling out "The Great Debaters" for a December release aimed at awards contention, as reported last month.  Well, a trailer has finally arrived (as of Monday, in fact -- been meaning to comment on it ever since).

Produced by Oprah Winfrey and directed by Denzel Washington (who also stars), the film seems to have that golden hue Oscar voters love so much.

Or, rather...that Oscar voters USED to love so much.

I've been wondering, as of late, whether the Academy of today is no longer the Academy Harvey Weinstein so clearly understood in years past.  Tugging those heartstrings, aiming for the "meat and potatoes" voters, a term Weinstein coined, this was the honcho's MO during his hey-day.  But the Academy that took stands for "Shakespeare in Love" and "Life is Beautiful," among others, seems to be a different group than that which has gone on the record for "The Lord of the Rings," "Brokeback Mountain" and "The Departed" in recent memory.

Weinstein himself felt the sting last year when "Bobby," a seemingly tailor-made Academy film that nailed down major nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Screen Actors Guild, failed to make it into Oscar's final five.  Granted, the film hit a big critical snag (I'm one of the few who really enjoyed it), but I also think the critical assessment of today is a touch different than it was in the pre-9/11 era.

And that brings about a whole other can of worms.  Much as I hate to bring an Oscar discussion into that realm, it is worth pointing out the somber nature of cinema en masse in recent years and, especially, in the last ten months.  2007 has been a downer year for the ages.

"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Gone Baby Gone," "In the Valley of Elah, "Into the Wild," "Margot at the Wedding," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "Reservation Road," "There Will Be Blood," "Things We Lost in the Fire," "Zodiac" -- these are not bastions of uplifting cinema.

Even "Beowulf," an exhilerating spectacle of a film, ends on the ambiguous, almost cynical note of perpetual corruption and moral perversion at the highest levels of leadership.

I don't know what kind of fair weather "The Great Debaters" should hope for in the coming weeks as it continues to screen for a critical community that would rather scowl than feel all gooey inside.  But at least it'll assumably have a unique feel-good quotient going for it this season, alongside films like "Juno," "The Kite Runner" and "Once."  When Academy members sit down to vote, they've shown us time and again that there is something to be said for an alternative to the year's emotional status quo.

We shall see...

•  Anne Thompson speculates about a wide open fifth slot for Best Actor and offers her own thoughts about the ladies' categories. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  The Buzzmeter launches at The Envelope, 26 pundits weigh in on picks in the top races. [The Envelope]

•  The Gurus o' Gold assess the races for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. [Movie City News]

•  Tom O'Neil looks at how an unusual race for Best Director might skew the Best Picture landscape. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to darkhorse Best Actor contender Frank Langella about "Starting Out in the Evening." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  With "American Gangster" and director Ridley Scott in the heat of the Oscar derby this year, Noah Forrest proclaims the helmer overrated... [Movie City News]

•  ...and gets a rush of hate mail for his troubles, with his own editor calling him "short-sighted." [The Hot Blog]

•  Argentina's foreign Oscar entry "XXY" tops the list of noms for the Sur awards of the Argentine Film Arts and Sciences Academy. [Variety]

•  Oscar-nominated director Paul Greengrass takes Variety's U.K. Achievement in Film Award. [Variety]

•  Isabel Kershner digs into the controversy over Israeli film "The Band's Visit," both at home and with Oscar. [New York Times]

•  Ramin Setoodeh calls "Atonement" the best film of the year ("maybe"), points us to an apparent Facebook account calling for a supporting actress nomination for Romola Garai. [The Gold Digger]

•  Scott Bowles talks "American Gangster" with the film's on- and off-screen talent. [USA Today]

•  A drop in the bucket of critical approval for the film, Bob Mondello says Oscar may come calling for Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead." [NPR]