I have to say, a lot of this morning's poo-pooing of the Oscar ceremony last night is a bit hyperbolic for my taste.  The mixed critical reactions, that is.  I found the night to be rather swift and host Jon Stewart to be at the top of his game.  Sure, there were a number of montages that should have been nixed.  The Best Picture bit that Jack Nicholson presented comes to mind as considerably unnecessary.  But by my watch, the thing was over in less than four hours, something around three and a half...and that's ALWAYS a good thing.  Right?

But let's get into it.  The season has come to a close and the Coen brothers, Scott Rudin and "No Country for Old Men" had their day to shine.  Good for all involved.  It's the most un-Academy win since "The Silence of the Lambs," but that's the way things go sometimes.

There were surprises in store for some.  Such as Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton taking the leading and supporting actress trophies, swooping in at the last minute to steal away the thunder of the night's frontrunners.  Personally, I saw this coming, but no one could deny the possibility was there and the situations were ripe for upsets.  Both speeches, by the way, were quite good.  Cotillard was appropriately emotional (as was Diablo Cody, who even choked me up with her teary acceptance).  Swinton, meanwhile, offered that Tilda charm and sass that has become something of a staple this season for the "Michael Clayton" star.

The biggest shocks of the night for me came in the craft races, where "The Bourne Ultimatum" snuck in and grabbed the sound editing and sound mixing statuettes.  The latter category had been primed as a race between "Transformers" and "No Country for Old Men," a considerable media concentration given the nominations tally of Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell.  Sadly, they missed yet again and this was their last shot at getting it together.  They'll go off and, obviously, churn out great work separately, so this isn't the end of days.  But it would have been a nice bow on their partnership, to be sure.

I think the best moments of the evening both involved the film "Once."  The first was Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova's performance of "Falling Slowy," which elicited a huge cheer from the crowd.  The second was Jon Stewart's insistence that Irglova come back out and be given her moment to offer what ultimately was, let's face it, the bes speech of the evening.  Trigger happy bands really piss me off and someone needs to key them into the fact that some people you just don't scoot away like that.  This was a songwriting DUO, the two STARs of the film, for Pete's sake.  Give them both their moment, please.

The "Enchanted" numbers became a bit tedious after a while, and I couldn't help but wish Eddie Vedder had been there to mix things up.  There are no two ways about it.  The music branch embarassed itself this year.  That's my opinion, in any case.

Apparently the ratings were the lowest ever, which it is foolish to attribute (as some have) to the actual show.  I would say one need only look at the slate of rather unpopular Best Picture nominees to find out why the public at large wasn't very interested.  Personally, I thought it was the best year for movies in a long while.  But just look at the box office rankings to see what people preferred.  It's not in line with Oscar.

Anyway, now we look ahead to next year, right?  RIGHT?  Well, those of us who are nuts, in any case.  Scott Rudin and the Coens will be back, for different projects.  Josh Brolin, Sean Penn, Angelina Jolie, Frank Langella, Russell Crowe, George Clooney -- all heading back to the race.  Returning filmmakers include Ridley Scott, Joe Wright and David Fincher, while Paramount Pictures once again has the glut of product to consider.  And there'll be a "titanic" reunion in store for the nostalgic romantics in the crowd.

But we'll get there.  For now, let's just all enjoy the release of another Oscar year in the rear view mirror.  It's been a blast contributing here at variety this season,a nd I hope you've all enjoyed reading.  We'll weather the fallout in the coming days and call it quits at the end of the week.

Happy Monday.

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

•  Anne Thompson assesses the potential lack of a Golden Globes telecast... [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  ...and runs into "The Dark Knight" helmer Christopher Nolan at a holiday gathering this week, grills him on the IMAX experience of th 2008 WB tentpole. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Pete Hammond also digs into the awards show dillemmas before offering thoughts on later season hopefuls. [The Envelope]

•  Michael Cieply is also hot on the trail of the Globes situation. [New York Times]

•  Jeffrey Wells is back on the "Oscar prognostication should be about spotlighting quality" thing again. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone has a look at IFC's "Oconoclasts" with Sean Penn and Jon Krakauer, a very absorbing "Guy's guy" special that I'd encourage anyone, fan of "Into the Wild" or not, to give a look. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil tries to get a bead on the comedy/musical races at the Globes. [Gold Derby]

•  Claudia Puig hails "Michael Clayton" the best film of 2007. [USA Today]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

•  "Into the Wild" wins the season's first major Best Picture prize at the Gotahm Awards. [Variety]

•  David Carr reports from the scene. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Anne Thompson racks up "No Country" talk across the web, including this and that about the film's ending. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Martin Grove speaks up on behalf of Christopher Plummer's performance in "Man in the Chair." [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  T.L. Stanley blogs the campaign strategy for the performance. [Gold Rush]

•  Tom O'Neil compares the Gothams and the Indie Spirits. [Gold Derby]

•  Ramin Satoodeh was no fan of "Charlie Wilson's War." [The Gold Digger]

•  Nathaniel Rogers runs down a list great performances in not-so-great films. [The Film Experience]

Eddie Vedder popped up tonight outside the Paramount theater for a modest crowd, performing songs from the "Into the Wild" soundtrack after a screening of the film.  And he killed.

Sean Penn and Emile Hirsch introduced Vedder to the crowd, which included a who's who of the entertainment industry: Cameron Crowe, Ringo Starr, Mark Ruffalo, Emilio Estevez and Wynona Rider among them.  Vedder cranked out "Guaranteed," "Rise Up," "No Ceiling" and "Society" before steering into Pearl Jam B-side "Drifting" as well as "You've Got to Hide Your Love Away" from the "I Am Sam" soundtrack.

Watching the performance from maybe five or six feet away and studying Vedder's face, I suddenly felt the sensation that this fixture of the grunge era had hit a new stride in his musical and lyrical career.  Something more textured, fuller, perhaps more mature.  There's no arguing that his is one of the great voices in rock history and that he can turn a lyric with the best of them, but what Vedder has accomplished on the "Wild" soundtrack is possibly the crowning jewel of the film.  Tonight was a testament to that.

The singer is showing aging, but not necessarily showing his age.  The lines are there, the years of celebrity and activism taking their toll, perhaps.  In any case, it was with a strange combination of sadness and pride that I watched a rock star fully embody this new, more cultivated phase of his career this evening.

I chatted briefly with the film's editor, Jay Cassidy, about his journey with Penn on each of the actor/director's works.  I also caught up with Penn himself, who said he was certainly feeling the toll of the awards campaign, but nonetheless, he seemed like he could take any given event by the horns then and there, regardless of fatigue.

A good event all around for Paramount Vantage, who is in high gear on a campaign that could lead all the way to a Best Picture nomination for the film.  We shall see.

(Photo courtesy of Hollywood Elsewhere)

So we're not into predictions here at Variety, and that's not what I'm aiming at with this post.  But I do think it might be worth mulling over the three films Paramount Vantage has primed for major Oscar attention in some sort of level-headed fashion -- because it's been eating at me.

The studio is actually pushing five films for awards this year, but I don't think it's out of the question to overlook "A Mighty Heart" and "Margot at the Wedding" when it comes to Best Picture speculation.  So I will.

As noted last week, "There Will Be Blood" screened Thursday night to a few journos in Los Angeles and we're bound by blood and honor to keep a lid on it.  Fine, fair enough...I'll just let this casual diversion of the conversation to the other two titles say what I'm thinking about the Oscar chances of Paul Thomas Anderson's film -- sans personal opinion.

So we're down to "The Kite Runner" and "Into the Wild."  Both films have their fans, both seem to be the right contenders to hit the soft-spot demographic of the Academy.  It's been a while since I saw each of them, but I have to say that I'm starting to get the feeling Vantage would be better served by shoving all of their efforts behind the latter.

To start, there's a lot of charisma to work with (duh).  Emile Hirsch is the baby face, Sean Penn is the bad-boy actor-turned-director and Eddie Vedder is the grunge frontman considering an appearance in his first music video in 15 years for one of the film's tracks.  Oh, and don't forget loveable Hal Holbrook, who is coming to town in November to spice up the awards campaign.

Vantage is rallying the troops with screenings and events and, frankly, seems to be showing its hand that THIS is their contender.  But "The Kite Runner" hit a little hiccup on the way to a November release date (since pushed to December), so it makes sense that there isn't a lot of smoke around that title just yet.

I'm not a fan of "The Kite Runner" at all, mind you.  I think it is schmaltz of the highest order -- and this comes from a guy who loved "Finding Neverland."  So I'm not a cynical curmudgeon.  It's just too clinical in its tendency to hammer those golden-hued moments and themes, and sue me if I think the Academy would rather go with something that digs a little deeper.  You won't have a hard time finding someone who's seen the film and thinks it is right up the AMPAS' alley, but I'm skeptical.

I'm also no fan of "Into the Wild," by the way.  How's that for disclosure?  I loved, loved, LOVED Jon Krakauer's book, but thought Sean Penn's passion for Chris McCandless overshadowed craft and technique in the end.  But that's what the Academy loves so much, right?  Passion?  You can't take that away from the film, and from a guy who thought it wasn't really in the race upon seeing the final product, I have to say it's looking like a top tier candidate lately.