•  Ryan Adams posits the Oscars as a repeat of the Super Bowl, with "No Country" repping the undefeated Pats and "Atonement," should it take down a BAFTA victory, standing in for those Cinderella G-Men. [Awards Daily]

•  The sound crew from "No Country" continues to make the rounds. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells chimes in on the Weinstein strategy for Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" -- free "reel" in copies of yesterday's Variety. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone ponders the evergreen question: Who really marks up these ballots every year? [Awards Daily]

•  Todd Martens looks at the year's Grammy nominated film music, including work from Glen Hansard ("Once") and Eddie Vedder ("Into the Wild"). [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Vedder, New York Magazine isn't keen on Pearl Jam's latest pro-Obama track. [Vulture]

•  The Buzzmeter favors "No Country," save a select few holdouts. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil takes note. [Gold Derby]

•  Yes, the biggest Hollywood party of the year has been cancelled. [New York Times]

•  Mark Olsen sits down with Oscar nominee (and dark horse supporting actor contender) Casey Affleck. [The Envelope]

•  Donn Freydkin sits down with Javier Bardem in one of a slew of interviews the actor has been giving in recent weeks. [USA Today]

Eddie Vedder has made a rare music video appearance this year forfor Best Original Song hopeful "Guaranteed," from the "Into the Wild" soundtrack.  (Edited due to piss-poor researching on Vedder's music video appearances by yours truly.  I'm a child of theg runge era, and can only recall his long hiatus from doing them.  ANYWAY).  VH1 debuted the video earlier this week, and apparently, the gaffers were also on strike when director Marc Rocco shot the thing.

No, but seriously, folks...

It's good to see Vedder showing such committment to this project and his work in it.  Some of the finest songs of the year were in this film.  I was more moved by "Rise Up" and "Society," but "Guaranteed" is a solid track as well.

Here's the video:

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

What might be presumed the two frontrunners for Best Original Song, "Guaranteed" from "Into the Wild" and "Falling Slowly" from "Once" both received Grammy nominations today.  They were the only two songs nominated for films released this year, as the other three tunes in the category were from "Casino Royale," "Dreamgirls" and "Happy Feet" respectively.

•  David Carr runs some insular Times commentary regarind the L.A. premiere of "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Dissecting the potential "domestic strife" in screenwriter Diablo Cody's life via her tattoos.  Are we really going there? [The Envelope]

•  Todd Martens on intimate concert shindigs in lieu of sending music to Academy members. [The Envelope]

•  Sam Adams talks to the elusive Eddie Vedder about the tracks in "Into the Wild." [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to our own Anne Thompson about the Oscar derby. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone cleans up her NBR predictions. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley takes the measure of Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Terrence Howard's double-dipping potential. [Gold Rush]

•  David lunch talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ben Kawaller solicits some interesting comments from Tim Burton. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick starts his Oscar overview, focusing on the big races... [New York Post]

•  ...and follows it up with some other ponderings in his blog. [New York Post]

It appears you can now listen to each of Eddie Vedder's "Into the Wild" tunes at VantageGuilds.com.  The studio also says that it will soon be adding production notes and Jonny Greenwood's score to the "There Will Be Blood" section, an interview with Angelina Jolie to the "A Mighty Heart" section (presumably Pete Hammond's much publicized Q&A from Sunday night) and the music video for Vedder's "Guaranteed," which I mentioned in this space over the weekend.

It looks like New Line Cinema will be putting its might behind the "Hairspray" track "Come So Far (Got So Far To Go)" for its Best Original Song push.  Original speculation was on the Zac Efron tune "Ladies' Choice," but the studio sent out a CD this week containing only the former.

"Hairspray," "Into the Wild" and "Once" are looking like the contenders in the category.  Unless five make it, then there are cases to be made for "Enchanted" or even another "Wild" track, but certainly not "A Hero Comes Home" from "Beowulf."  That's a poppy/dreadful tune if I ever heard one (which is strange, given that Alan Silvestri's score is so bloody awesome).

I neglected to mention in this morning's item that Pearl Jam front man Eddie Vedder shot the music video for "Guaranteed" yesterday, the prevalent track from "Into the Wild," just before arriving on the Paramount lot for the festivities.  This is the first music video the singer has appeared in since "Jeremy" -- 14 years ago.  "Guaranteed" also appears to be his own favorite piece of work on the soundtrack and -- obviously -- the tune that awards strategists are positioning for the Best Original Song category.

I still dig "Society" and "No Ceiling" (however short) a little more, but it's all a bunch of audible goodness regardless.

Eddie Vedder popped up tonight outside the Paramount theater for a modest crowd, performing songs from the "Into the Wild" soundtrack after a screening of the film.  And he killed.

Sean Penn and Emile Hirsch introduced Vedder to the crowd, which included a who's who of the entertainment industry: Cameron Crowe, Ringo Starr, Mark Ruffalo, Emilio Estevez and Wynona Rider among them.  Vedder cranked out "Guaranteed," "Rise Up," "No Ceiling" and "Society" before steering into Pearl Jam B-side "Drifting" as well as "You've Got to Hide Your Love Away" from the "I Am Sam" soundtrack.

Watching the performance from maybe five or six feet away and studying Vedder's face, I suddenly felt the sensation that this fixture of the grunge era had hit a new stride in his musical and lyrical career.  Something more textured, fuller, perhaps more mature.  There's no arguing that his is one of the great voices in rock history and that he can turn a lyric with the best of them, but what Vedder has accomplished on the "Wild" soundtrack is possibly the crowning jewel of the film.  Tonight was a testament to that.

The singer is showing aging, but not necessarily showing his age.  The lines are there, the years of celebrity and activism taking their toll, perhaps.  In any case, it was with a strange combination of sadness and pride that I watched a rock star fully embody this new, more cultivated phase of his career this evening.

I chatted briefly with the film's editor, Jay Cassidy, about his journey with Penn on each of the actor/director's works.  I also caught up with Penn himself, who said he was certainly feeling the toll of the awards campaign, but nonetheless, he seemed like he could take any given event by the horns then and there, regardless of fatigue.

A good event all around for Paramount Vantage, who is in high gear on a campaign that could lead all the way to a Best Picture nomination for the film.  We shall see.

(Photo courtesy of Hollywood Elsewhere)

I swear I'll get off the original song kick at some point, but the more I listen to Eddie Vedder's soundtrack for "Into the Wild," the more I feel like "Guaranteed" might not be the flagship song for the film.  Or, at least it shouldn't be.

"Guaranteed" is the track Paramount Vantage expects to have the most potential within the music branch, and it's already front and center at the VantageGuilds.com webpage for the pic.  What is attractive about this choice is how the song is used in a variety of ways throughout the film, either in full, purely instrumental or through Vedder's vocals and/or humming.  But I think the better track is "Society," a fuller song in the verse-chorus-versus sense and obviously used in an integral way in the film -- it's the song playing when McCandless is setting up his new home in the bus upon arrival to Alaska.

"Society" is the longer song, if that happens to matter, but it also speaks directly to the themes of the narrative like no other song in the film.  Not for nothing, I think the song might be the most meaningful and organic piece of music written for a major motion picture since Aimee Mann's "Save Me" from the "Magnlia" soundtrack in 1999.

Admittedly I'm not the Academy demographic here.  After all, I thought last year's best song was probably "In the End" from "Shortbus."

Anyway, check out the lyrics to "Society" for yourself and judge:

It's a mystery to me.
We have a Greed, with which we have agreed.

And you think you have to want more than you need.
Until you have it all, you won't be Free.

Society, you're a crazy breed.
I hope you're not lonely without me.

When you want more than you have, you think you need.
And when you think more than you want your thoughts begin to bleed.

I think I need to find a bigger place.
'Cause when you have more than you think you need more space.

Society, crazy indeed.
Hope you're not lonely, without me.

There's those thinking more less, less is more.
But if less is more, how you keepin' score?

Means for every point you make your level drops.
Kinda like you're startin' from the top.
And you can't do that.

Society, you're a crazy breed
Hope you're not lonely without me.

Society, crazy indeed
Hope you're not lonely without me.

Society, have mercy on me.
Hope you're not angry if I disagree.

Society, you're a crazy breed
I hope you're not lonely without me.

So we're not into predictions here at Variety, and that's not what I'm aiming at with this post.  But I do think it might be worth mulling over the three films Paramount Vantage has primed for major Oscar attention in some sort of level-headed fashion -- because it's been eating at me.

The studio is actually pushing five films for awards this year, but I don't think it's out of the question to overlook "A Mighty Heart" and "Margot at the Wedding" when it comes to Best Picture speculation.  So I will.

As noted last week, "There Will Be Blood" screened Thursday night to a few journos in Los Angeles and we're bound by blood and honor to keep a lid on it.  Fine, fair enough...I'll just let this casual diversion of the conversation to the other two titles say what I'm thinking about the Oscar chances of Paul Thomas Anderson's film -- sans personal opinion.

So we're down to "The Kite Runner" and "Into the Wild."  Both films have their fans, both seem to be the right contenders to hit the soft-spot demographic of the Academy.  It's been a while since I saw each of them, but I have to say that I'm starting to get the feeling Vantage would be better served by shoving all of their efforts behind the latter.

To start, there's a lot of charisma to work with (duh).  Emile Hirsch is the baby face, Sean Penn is the bad-boy actor-turned-director and Eddie Vedder is the grunge frontman considering an appearance in his first music video in 15 years for one of the film's tracks.  Oh, and don't forget loveable Hal Holbrook, who is coming to town in November to spice up the awards campaign.

Vantage is rallying the troops with screenings and events and, frankly, seems to be showing its hand that THIS is their contender.  But "The Kite Runner" hit a little hiccup on the way to a November release date (since pushed to December), so it makes sense that there isn't a lot of smoke around that title just yet.

I'm not a fan of "The Kite Runner" at all, mind you.  I think it is schmaltz of the highest order -- and this comes from a guy who loved "Finding Neverland."  So I'm not a cynical curmudgeon.  It's just too clinical in its tendency to hammer those golden-hued moments and themes, and sue me if I think the Academy would rather go with something that digs a little deeper.  You won't have a hard time finding someone who's seen the film and thinks it is right up the AMPAS' alley, but I'm skeptical.

I'm also no fan of "Into the Wild," by the way.  How's that for disclosure?  I loved, loved, LOVED Jon Krakauer's book, but thought Sean Penn's passion for Chris McCandless overshadowed craft and technique in the end.  But that's what the Academy loves so much, right?  Passion?  You can't take that away from the film, and from a guy who thought it wasn't really in the race upon seeing the final product, I have to say it's looking like a top tier candidate lately.

Looking through the RSVP sidebar of a screening schedule for Warner's upcoming "The Bucket List," my eye was drawn to a contender for Best Original Song that I hadn't come across yet.  The track is called "Say" and both the lyric and vocal are by John Mayer.  Perhaps a soft, breathy track from the celebrated vocalist can get into the mix for a seemingly warm-hearted movie like this one?

The original song category already seems stacked this year as opposed to previous years where it seemed stretched a bit thin.  To begin, there's already four songs from Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" in play.  All are from Pearl Jam front man Eddie Vedder.  "Guaranteed" is the track prevalent throughout the film, and therefore might be deemed the most attractive choice.  "Society," however, is also integral to the narrative and could push through.  Vedder, you might recall, was passed over by the Academy in 2003 for his song "Man of the Hour" on the "Big Fish" soundtrack.

Paramount Vantage is getting out ahead of their music contenders again this year, mind you.  A modest event is already scheduled next weekend with Penn on the scene and Vedder crooning three of the tracks from the movie live.

Marc Shaiman, meanwhile, added three new tunes to the "Hairspray" set list that have to be taken seriously.  Most seem to be leaning on the Zac Efron ditty "Ladies' Choice."
 
Speaking of musicals, the little summer film that could -- "Once" -- is adding a one-two punch with "Falling Slowly" and "If You Want Me" (the former seems to be the best bet).

Alan Menken is back on the scene with Stephen Schwartz in Disney's "Enchanted."  Apparently the duo wrote a whopping five new songs for the film, which is already garnering lead actress buzz for Amy Adams.

Elsewhere there's the closing credits number "Lost" from Annie Lennox on "In the Valley of Elah."  However, given the song's usage, it might not pass the test.  New rules figure in the way a song is integrated into the film and the story.

There's also new Shakira material in "Love in the Time of Cholera," namely a track called "La Despidida."  And will Stephen Sondheim offer new material to the soundtrack of "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street?"  I'm in the dark on that one.

So that's 18 potential contenders without breaking a sweat.  There are others eligible, but these seem to be the real threats.