Reading through David Carr's coverage of last night's Independent Spirit Awards, I was taken by his closing sentiments, which ring true here at the end of things.  I thought I'd point them out to you because, let's face it, it's been a tough road:

“The Savages” had a big night too, with writer/director Tamara Jenkins winning best screenplay and Philip Seymour Hoffman going home as best male lead – and the reigning belt wearer of the first annual Indie Spirit cage match.

He and Wilson had been mock-taunting each other from the podium all day and then Wilson got up to thank the crowd and then said he was coming down to settle things with Seymour Hoffman. He made good on his promise, but Seymour Hoffman, a former wrestler, was not about to be put down by a TV guy, and he ended up on top, butt slapping Wilson. It wasn’t pretty – let’s just say that both boys were selling a little crack – but it was pretty damn funny. After a season of pickets, a death in the family in the form of Heath Ledger’s passing, and just plain crabbiness, no one could say it wasn’t about time.

Actress in a Leading Role Laura Linney
Writing (Original Screenplay) Tamara Jenkins

The Hollywood publicity machine is well-oiled at the start of this week, to be sure.  I count at least four studios with events lined up this evening, and who knows what shin-digs I haven't been invited to today.  We all make our blacklists.

First, there's Picturehouse's celebration of Marion Cotillard, Oscar nominated for "La Vie en Rose," if you're into a poolside gathering at the Chateau Marmont.

If a nuts and bolts dialogue is more your speed, Paramount Vantage has set up the "There Will Be Blood" crew for a screening and Q&A over at the Harmony gold Theater on Sunset.  Film editor Dylan Tichenor, cinematographer Robert Elswit, sound designer Chris Scarabosio, supervising sound editor Matthew Wood, and set decorator Jim Erickson -- nominees all of them -- are expected to attend.

Down the street at Book Soup, screenwriter Christopher Hampton is participating in a book signing of his Oscar-nominated adaptation, "Atonement," while Ariana Huffington will be hosting a screening of Charles Ferguson's "No End In Sight" at the Paley Center for Media out in Beverly Hills, for those really jonsing for a political experience, what with Super Tuesday right around the corner.  Huffington just hosted a similar "No End" event over the weekend at the Hotel Plaza Athenee in New York.

Oh, and Tamara Jenkins was just at Book Soup yesterday reading from her "Savages" screenplay.

All of these events come on the heels of last weekend's spotlight of the below the line nominees from "No Country for Old Men" -- coverage of which I've yet to stumble across, by the way.  Come on.  Somebody was there, right?

Anyway, lots of media exposure for lots of deserving contenders this season.  Some might think no more than usual, but the agression on the part of campaigners and strategists seems to have slid up a notch to me this year.  Lucky us, eh?

Okay, well, one fact.  First and foremost, I love the girls and guys at USA Today.  The "McPaper" jab in the headline here is more in friendly jest, believe me.  But with that out of the way, two items in Gary Strauss' Oscar reactions piece bother me:

The pundits quoted are David Poland (ubiquitous as always), Scott Feinberg and Andy Scott.

First, Scott indicates that Laura Linney "was completely off the radar" for her performance in Tamara Jenkins' "The Savages."  This is hardly the case, and is kind of indicative of how beneficial it can be to actually be in the pipeline out here.  Linney worked this film hand-in-hand with Jenkins for months...hard.  If someone was going to miss, it was going to be Linney who took the spot.  This wasn't some out-of-nowhere nomination like Tommy Lee Jones' "In the Valley of Elah" performance, which had clearly run out of steam months before the season got into full swing.  But this entire point is subjective in some ways, so it gets a pass.  Maybe I'm just being feisty.

Second, sticking with the lead actress category, Feinberg is quoted as saying "We knew Angelina was a fringe contender, and Keira wasn't nominated last year for a bigger role in Pride & Prejudice."  Well he's half right (though arguably so) and half wrong.  Obviously, Ms. Knightley did in fact receive a nomination for Joe Wright's "Pride & Prejudice," which released in 2005, not "last year."

I understand Strauss was under a deadline here, but fact-checking is fact checking, no?  I was supposed to call him up and participate, but I was so clogged with the day's twisted events that I never got around to returning.  Sorry to see some of these folks send up some bogus info for publication under his byline, but that's the way it goes sometimes, I guess.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz......

"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Knocked Up"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"
"There Will Be Blood" 

Variety has the story.

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

•  Michael Cieply on the "ghettoized" Animated Feature category and the Best Picture hopes of "Ratatouille." [New York Times]

•  David Carr responds, then gets into Manohla Dargis' review of "The Savages." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Tom O'Neil calls New York's Gotham Awards a "fiasco." [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells is a fan of the new trailer for "There Will Be Blood," which left another audience in stunned silence last night at the DGA. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Brian Kinsley thinks Amy Adams may have won Best Actress when "Enchanted" opened to stellar business and reviews over the holiday weekend. [In Contention]

•  Yours truly isn't as convinced as Martin Grove on Frank Langella and Christopher Plummer. [In Contention]

•  Ramin Satoodeh recaps the Gotham Awards. [The Gold Digger]

•  After nearly a month's absence from his New York Magazine blog, David Edelstein finally makes a post -- this one's about polarized reviews of "I'm Not There." [The Projectionist]

•  In the wake of "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short of expectations, more people come out of the woodwork to proclaim they "saw this coming." [indieWIRE]

•  Ryan C. Adams digs into the first UK reviews of "The Golden Compass." [Awards Daily]

Tamara Jenkins' "The Savages" opened to raves across the board today, judging from the solid 91% Rotten Tomatoes rating and a 92% Cream of the Crop collective assessment.  This shower of praise keeps the question on the table: Will the film's familial themes appeal to the Academy enough to generate legitimate Best Picture potential?

"The Savages" has been visible for nearly a year since its bow in Sundance back in January.  The film arguably would have been better served as a surprise rather than Fox Searchlight unveiling it so early (they went into the fest with the film in hand, it wasn't a purchased commodity).  Then again, Sundance was the perfect environment for this little ditty and what's done is done.  Moot point.

The studio now finds itself in a situation similar to Paramount Vantage: Which film to highlight?  The Buzzmeter has finally caught up to the potential of "Juno" in the big race, and when that film opens next month, the critical community will likely go as ga-ga as they have for "Savages."  Searchlight has sent screeners of each of their titles to the memberships of various entities.  And while it's foolish to think studios think in the "one film, one campaign" frame of mind, it's also naive to think a decision doesn't need to be made.

Whatever the case, "The Savages" rules the day for now.

•  T.L. Stanley ponders awards-caliber double-dippers cancelling each other out. [Gold Rush]

•  Tamara Jenkins writes up Phil Bosco for Landmark. [Landmark Theaters]

•  Pete Hammond looks at Academy screenings, actor campaigns and the overall pre-holiday chatter. [The Envelope]

•  Paramount releases video of Johnny Depp singing in "Sweeney," Tom O'Neil jumps. [Gold Derby]

•  Yours truly isn't impressed by "The Bucket List." [In Contention]

•  Gerard Kennedy, meanwhile, sizes up the Best Sound Editing race. [In Contention]

•  Noah Forrest is thankful for a lot of the year's Oscar contenders... [Movie City News]

•  ...and his editor calls him a "bug" for copping his style...while being thankful himself, of course. [The Hot Button]

•  Jeffrey Wells gets pissy over Anne Thompson reading the "Zodiac" tea leaves for what they are. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  He also holds Nate Parker's "Great Debaters" performance in high regard. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick calls "I'm Not There" "artsy-fartsy," "punshingly overlong" and "self-satisfied."  OUCH. [New York Post]

•  AND he debunks Amy Adams Best Actress talk. [New York Post]


Have a Happy Thanksgiving!

I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.

For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).

If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.

Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists.  A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc.  The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives.  One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter.  They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films.  But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.

I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings.  First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans.  The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.

Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night."  Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.

The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire."  The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."

31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.

Now, let's get to the consensus chart.  Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:

01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)

Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say.  This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.

Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.

Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.

"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months.  We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.

•  Anne Thompson on the recent Variety screening of "The Savages" with Laura Linney and Tamara Jenkins Q&A. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Brian Kinsley points us to a couple of below-the-radar contenders.  I like the "Persepolis" mention for Best Adapted Screenplay. [In Contention]

•  Todd Martens gets into the tracks of "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story." [Extended Play]

•  The Envelope has officially gone off the deep end with its awards season content: I give you, a gallery of the top 9 dinner scenes of the year? [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds to an item from yours truly, stirs the waters of his comments section in the process. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  While at Jeffrey's site, I came across this interesting piece regarding potential inspirations for Cormac McCarthy's "No Country for Old Men." [Anti-Dis-Arts-And-Entertainmentalism]

•  David Poland has taken to iPosting, and his wheels are spinning about the box office of "Beowulf." [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, in the fifth of a superlative on-going Oscar column, sizes up musicals at the Oscars. [The Film Experience]

•  Checking names off his interview wish lists, Scott Feinberg gets ahold of veteran Max von Sydow to discuss "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [And the Winner Is...]

•  Lou Lumenick gets around to "There Will Be Blood," is dazzled by Daniel Day-Lewis' performance. [New York Post]

•  Susan Wloszczyna talks to Josh Brolin about that silly "overnight success" story business.  Anyone seen "The Goonies???" [USA Today]

I moderated a Q&A last night with Laura Linney and Tamara Jenkins for "The Savages," one of Fox Searchlight's hopefuls this awards season and Jenkins' first feature film since "Slums of Beverly Hills" nine years ago.

The crowd was mostly WGA, with some SAG members here and there.  Questions centered on Jenkins' obvious impusle to write about familial matters (a trend that stretches back to her student film days), the casting process that yielded Philip Bosco's surprising turn and Linney's on-set rapport with Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

The crowd wanted to know a number of insights, picking out nuances from the screenplay (Hoffman's character crying over a plate of cooked eggs, the use of seemingly Peter Pan-inspired character names Wendy and Jon).  One viewer was curious as to whether there was much improvisation involved in making the environment seem so true and genuine.  Apparently, there wasn't.  Jenkins charmed the crowd with her shoot-from-the-hip humor and everyone seemed to hold a considerable amount of respect for Linney and her portrayal.

Following the screening, the usual fawning from the crowd greeted the filmmaker and her star with this intimate note of gratitude or that, but I was really struck by one woman who brought Jenkins aside to tell her how much the screening hit home, and how the film felt so authentic, as her own father had passed away a few months back.

"The Savages" has been in the ether for nearly 12 months now, ever since a bow in Sundance back in January.  It's beginning the crucial guild/Academy screening circuit now, and reactions like this may be key if the film is going to make a play on the major categories.  The older-skewing Academy is, after all, at that age where dealing with life without one's parents, watching mothers and fathers get older and taking responsibility for loved ones is part of the daily consciousness.

•  Anne Thompson chimes in with some things she learned froma  second look at "There Will Be Blood" Monday night. [Thompson on Hollywood] 

•  Sasha Stone senses a John Cusack surge on the horizon. [Awards Daily]

•  Lisa Rosen spotlights baddies at the Oscars, though it's becoming apparent that The Envelope is churning out TOO MUCH awards content.  Slow down! [The Envelope]

•  Susan King talks to Phil Bosco. [The Envelope]

•  David Poland was ALSO at the "Sweeney Tease" in NYC. [The Hot Blog]

•  Jeffrey Wells comments on Tom O'Neil's reaction to the 17 minutes of footage. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick agrees with the select few who think "Beowulf" won't land in the animated final three. [New York Post]

•  Peter Knegt takes a stab at predicting the top nine categories. [indieWIRE]