Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

•  David Poland kicks off his list of the year's best by taking a jab at supporters of "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac," chalks the lovefest up to "critical onanism."  Oh, and "I'm Not There" tops his list. [The Hot Button]

•  Bob Verini hypothesizes the comedy and musical categories of the Golden Globes to be a major audience draw for a telecast. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to filmmaker Daivd Fincher about "Zodiac" and next year's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," among other things. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil and Pete Hammond call the race as it is...for now, anyway. [Gold Derby]

•  The Times of London has a sit-down with "4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Times Online]

•  Todd Martens on the music behind John Salyes' "Honeydripper." [Extended Play]

•  Stu VanAirsdale kicks off his annual "Top 10 Top 10 Lists" list. [The Reeler]

•  Josh Jurgensen sits down with Tim Burton to talk "Sweeney Todd." [Wall Street Journal]

•  A little Helena Bonham Carter worship from Nathaniel Rogers. [The Film Experience]

•  "Atonement," "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "The Great Debaters" land on a list of the week's mostpirated flicks. [Torrent Freak]

•  The Hollywood Reporter's Andrew Wallenstein responds. [Reel Pop]

•  New York Magazine, meanwhile, wonders how long studios will continue to mail out screeners given how piracy happens each and every year...but I wouldn't worry about that yet. [Vulture]

•  Ramin Setoodeh is back with an anti-"Atonement" survey, an anti-"Sweeney Todd" hypothesis, and some pro-"Juno" sentiments. [The Gold Digger]

•  Paul Brownfield talks to Vanessa Redgrave about the "gravity" of her five minutes in "Atonement." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin gets into the threads of "Sweeney Todd" with costume designer Collen Atwood. [USA Today]

•  A night out on the town with "The Kite Runner" star Khaid Abdallah. [New York Times]

•  Lindsay Lohan is guaranteed at least one award this year. [MSNBC]

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz......

"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Knocked Up"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"
"There Will Be Blood" 

Variety has the story.

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

I'm just going to throw this one out there...

All these career achievement and lifetime achievement awards Sidney Lumet is pulling down this season seem kind of disrespectful, I think.  "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" is a film perhaps worthy of more than an "Oh, Lumet made a good one!  Let's give him an honorary salute," kind of thing.

The New York Film Critics Circle had absolutely no surprises in store today, handing "No Country for Old Men" four awards, including one for Best Pic.

Daniel Day-Lewis and Robert Elswit represented Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood," which swept the LA critics' awards yesterday, while Julie Christie positioned herself again as the competition for Marion Cotillard in the Best Actress race (where's Ellen Page been this whole time?).  Amy Ryan also continues to scorch the earth as THE supporting actress frontrunner of the year.

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" was surprisingly snubbed throughout.  Nothing, also, for Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," a Gotham film if there ever was one.  The director did, however, pick up a lifetime achievement award.

This weekend's activity and today's awards have put "No Country' and "Blood" at the top of everyone's rontrunner lists for Oscar, two brutal, cold films that are not the Academy pedigree at all.  But perhaps the critics will muscle them into the dance if this continues to be the case, each of them constantly duking it out.  Tomorrow, the Broadcast Film Critics Association announces its list of nominees, always a pretty good indication of where the Academy will ultimately go.

The full list of NYFCC winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Cinematographer: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood"
Best Documentary: "No End in Sight"
Best First Film: Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"
Best Animated Film: "Persepolis"
Best Foreign Film: "The Lives of Others"
Lifetime Achievement Award: Sidney Lumet
Special Critics' Award: Charles Burnett, "Killer of Sheep"

The Envelope grabbed the scoop on the LAFCA winners.

First and foremost, Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood" got a giant kiss and a HUGE Oscar boost from the group, taking down four wins, including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Actor.

There was no love for "No Country for Old Men," which stuns me, frankly.  Not even in the runner-up arenas.  I spoke to a colleague last week who predicted the critics groups might shy away from the film with the NBR tapping it as the best film of the year, but I shrugged that thought off in a hurry.

Anyway, regardless of all of that, this show of solidarity for Anderson's film is significant to say the least.  The film came pretty close to sweeping, grabbing three runner-up mentions in addition to the four wins.

Also, Amy Ryans grabbed her third supporting actress win in as many awards announcements.  Nothing so far for the perceived frontrunner coming into the season, Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (aside from a runner-up mention from the LAFCA).

"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" looks to have been the group's second-place fave, coming in just behind "Blood" in the Best Picture and Best Director categories.  And as expected, the LAFCA went against the grain (typically willful) by going with Vlad Ivanov's supporting performance in "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days."  It's a good choice, because Ivanov is so unsettling in the film.

Variety has a write-up.  Here's the full list of winners:

Best Picture: "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening")

Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
(runner-up: Anamaria Marinca, "4 Months, 3 Months and 2 Days")

Best Supporting Actor: Vlad Ivanov, "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
(runner-up: Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild")

Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone" and "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
(runner-up: Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There")

Best Screenplay: Tamara Jenkins, "The Savages"
(runner-up: Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Animation: (tie -- boooo) "Persepolis"/"Ratatouille"

Best Foreign Language Film: "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
(runner-up: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly")

Best Documentary/Non-fiction Film: "No End in Sight"
(runner-up: "Sicko")

Best Production Design: Jack Fisk, "There Will Be Blood"
(runner-up: Dante Ferretti, "Sweeney Todd")

Best Music: Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova, "Once"
(runner-up: Jonny Greenwood, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
(runner-up: Robert Elswit, "There Will Be Blood")

Best Douglas Edwards Indie Award: "Colossal Youth" directed by Pedro Costa 

Best Career Achievement: Sidney Lumet

The Boston Society of Film Critics voted on their list of winners this afternoon.  Beginning what is likely to be a critics' group stampede, the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" won Best Picture of the year.  It was one of two wins for the film.  Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" won three, including Best Director.

Frank Langella picked up some needed steam as the group's Best Actor choice.  Every lead actor winner from the group has gone on to an Oscar nomination since 2000's choice of Colin Farrell in "Tigerland" (unless you count Brian Cox for "L.I.E." in 2001, though he tied with Denzel Washington in "Training Day."

Marion Cotillard grabbed her first significant lead actress win of the season.  The last winner in that category to miss with Oscar was Scarlett Johansson for Sofia Coppola's "Lost in Translation" four years ago.

Ultimately this isn't a necessarily great predictive precursor across the board unless a consensus has formed (like with last year's lead races).  They're Best Picture winners over the last couple of years have gone on to notices at the Academy, but there was also a stretch where "Trainspotting," "Out of Sight," "Almost Famous" and "Mulholland Dr." took down the big win.  None of them managed Best Picture nominations with the Academy.

Basically...perspective is key.  Nothing will truly be of consequence until the guilds start to speak up.  But this is no doubt the beginning of an impressive run of precursor awards for the Coen brothers film.

Variety has a BSFC write-up.  Stay tuned later today for the LAFCA announcement.

BSFC Winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Actor: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "Ratatouille"
Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Crazy Love"
Best Foereign-Language Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best New Filmmaker: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Ensemble Cast: "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"

I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.

For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).

If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.

Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists.  A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc.  The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives.  One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter.  They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films.  But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.

I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings.  First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans.  The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.

Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night."  Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.

The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire."  The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."

31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.

Now, let's get to the consensus chart.  Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:

01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)

Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say.  This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.

Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.

Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.

"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months.  We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.

In today's Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope, it seems "Juno" has moved into the top five Best Picture considerations, while Paul Dano has lept up into the supporting actor fray.

I'm tempted to go along with the latter once again (while I've already been on board for the former) because it seems to be, if anything, a situation where an explosive leading performance pulls the supporting portrayal along for the awards ride -- no matter the perception out there that Dano might be somewhat out of his league.

It seems to recall Ethan Hawke's nomination alongside Denzel Washington in "Training Day."  Though, in this viewer's mind, Hawke's performance there has only been matched by his work this year in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Other buzz gainers include JamesMcAvoy and Vanessa Regrave for "Atonement" and Ridley Scott for "American Gangster."  Mike Nichols took a tumble in the director ranks for "Charlie Wilson's War" and, indeed, his film only show up in one other category chart: Best Supporting Actor, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Take a look at the update.  I'm thinking about gathering up all the info from the Gurus o' Gold, the Sultans of Bling and the Buzzmeter to see what an overall consensus would look like.

Jeez, I totally just sounded like a dork.

Really getting into the thick of the awards season, Variety's special issues are starting to heat up.  In print today: "The Contenders."

Yours truly (with major contributions from the industrious Sharon Swart) kicks things off with a glimpse at most of the players, some inside chatter, and an attempt at contextualizing the already steam-rolling season.

There are also a number of profiles for films in play.  Of the perceived heavies, Steven Gaydos tackles box office champ "American Gangster," Peter Debruge tries to get a bead on the unseen "Charlie Wilson's War" and Tim Gray gets into the gore of "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."

As for the dark horses, Debruge sizes up "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," Gaydos gets into "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and Anthony Kaufman showcases "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."

And we're off!  More and more special issues stuff to come, including the always revealing actor/actress profiles edition.  Stay tuned.

The Weinstein Company, which is understandably searching for a big awards contender amongst likely smaller successes in "Control" and "I'm Not There," will be pulling out "The Great Debaters" for a December release aimed at awards contention, as reported last month.  Well, a trailer has finally arrived (as of Monday, in fact -- been meaning to comment on it ever since).

Produced by Oprah Winfrey and directed by Denzel Washington (who also stars), the film seems to have that golden hue Oscar voters love so much.

Or, rather...that Oscar voters USED to love so much.

I've been wondering, as of late, whether the Academy of today is no longer the Academy Harvey Weinstein so clearly understood in years past.  Tugging those heartstrings, aiming for the "meat and potatoes" voters, a term Weinstein coined, this was the honcho's MO during his hey-day.  But the Academy that took stands for "Shakespeare in Love" and "Life is Beautiful," among others, seems to be a different group than that which has gone on the record for "The Lord of the Rings," "Brokeback Mountain" and "The Departed" in recent memory.

Weinstein himself felt the sting last year when "Bobby," a seemingly tailor-made Academy film that nailed down major nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Screen Actors Guild, failed to make it into Oscar's final five.  Granted, the film hit a big critical snag (I'm one of the few who really enjoyed it), but I also think the critical assessment of today is a touch different than it was in the pre-9/11 era.

And that brings about a whole other can of worms.  Much as I hate to bring an Oscar discussion into that realm, it is worth pointing out the somber nature of cinema en masse in recent years and, especially, in the last ten months.  2007 has been a downer year for the ages.

"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Gone Baby Gone," "In the Valley of Elah, "Into the Wild," "Margot at the Wedding," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "Reservation Road," "There Will Be Blood," "Things We Lost in the Fire," "Zodiac" -- these are not bastions of uplifting cinema.

Even "Beowulf," an exhilerating spectacle of a film, ends on the ambiguous, almost cynical note of perpetual corruption and moral perversion at the highest levels of leadership.

I don't know what kind of fair weather "The Great Debaters" should hope for in the coming weeks as it continues to screen for a critical community that would rather scowl than feel all gooey inside.  But at least it'll assumably have a unique feel-good quotient going for it this season, alongside films like "Juno," "The Kite Runner" and "Once."  When Academy members sit down to vote, they've shown us time and again that there is something to be said for an alternative to the year's emotional status quo.

We shall see...

•  Anne Thompson speculates about a wide open fifth slot for Best Actor and offers her own thoughts about the ladies' categories. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  The Buzzmeter launches at The Envelope, 26 pundits weigh in on picks in the top races. [The Envelope]

•  The Gurus o' Gold assess the races for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. [Movie City News]

•  Tom O'Neil looks at how an unusual race for Best Director might skew the Best Picture landscape. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to darkhorse Best Actor contender Frank Langella about "Starting Out in the Evening." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  With "American Gangster" and director Ridley Scott in the heat of the Oscar derby this year, Noah Forrest proclaims the helmer overrated... [Movie City News]

•  ...and gets a rush of hate mail for his troubles, with his own editor calling him "short-sighted." [The Hot Blog]

•  Argentina's foreign Oscar entry "XXY" tops the list of noms for the Sur awards of the Argentine Film Arts and Sciences Academy. [Variety]

•  Oscar-nominated director Paul Greengrass takes Variety's U.K. Achievement in Film Award. [Variety]

•  Isabel Kershner digs into the controversy over Israeli film "The Band's Visit," both at home and with Oscar. [New York Times]

•  Ramin Setoodeh calls "Atonement" the best film of the year ("maybe"), points us to an apparent Facebook account calling for a supporting actress nomination for Romola Garai. [The Gold Digger]

•  Scott Bowles talks "American Gangster" with the film's on- and off-screen talent. [USA Today]

•  A drop in the bucket of critical approval for the film, Bob Mondello says Oscar may come calling for Sidney Lumet's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead." [NPR]

Tom O'Neil is talking Oscar for ThinkFilm's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" over at Gold Derby, but seems unsure about what to really expect for the film come January.

Well, not for nothing, but a voting member told me today that when the film showed at the Academy this weekend, there was plenty of applause for Sudney Lumet's directorial credit, but nothing much at all for Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Ethan Hawke.  Then another uproar came for Marisa Tomei.

For what it's worth...