Denzel Washington stopped by the Ed Sullivan theater on Tuesday to talk up "The Great Debaters," The Weinstein Company's last minute Oscar hopeful that may or may not have found some traction with voters in the past month.

Here's part one:



And part two:

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

•  David Poland kicks off his list of the year's best by taking a jab at supporters of "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac," chalks the lovefest up to "critical onanism."  Oh, and "I'm Not There" tops his list. [The Hot Button]

•  Bob Verini hypothesizes the comedy and musical categories of the Golden Globes to be a major audience draw for a telecast. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to filmmaker Daivd Fincher about "Zodiac" and next year's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," among other things. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil and Pete Hammond call the race as it is...for now, anyway. [Gold Derby]

•  The Times of London has a sit-down with "4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Times Online]

•  Todd Martens on the music behind John Salyes' "Honeydripper." [Extended Play]

•  Stu VanAirsdale kicks off his annual "Top 10 Top 10 Lists" list. [The Reeler]

•  Josh Jurgensen sits down with Tim Burton to talk "Sweeney Todd." [Wall Street Journal]

•  A little Helena Bonham Carter worship from Nathaniel Rogers. [The Film Experience]

•  "Atonement," "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "The Great Debaters" land on a list of the week's mostpirated flicks. [Torrent Freak]

•  The Hollywood Reporter's Andrew Wallenstein responds. [Reel Pop]

•  New York Magazine, meanwhile, wonders how long studios will continue to mail out screeners given how piracy happens each and every year...but I wouldn't worry about that yet. [Vulture]

•  Ramin Setoodeh is back with an anti-"Atonement" survey, an anti-"Sweeney Todd" hypothesis, and some pro-"Juno" sentiments. [The Gold Digger]

•  Paul Brownfield talks to Vanessa Redgrave about the "gravity" of her five minutes in "Atonement." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin gets into the threads of "Sweeney Todd" with costume designer Collen Atwood. [USA Today]

•  A night out on the town with "The Kite Runner" star Khaid Abdallah. [New York Times]

•  Lindsay Lohan is guaranteed at least one award this year. [MSNBC]

•  Our own Anne Thompson runs through some Oscar prognostication off-site... [Premiere]

•  ...and wraps up the holiday season at her blog. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jumping ahead to next year's rat race (I know), Jeffrey Wells runs a reaction from behind the scenes to David Fincher's upcoming "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Envelope jumps on that bandwagon with a photo gallery preview. [The Envelope]

•  Sasha Stone has a preview of tomorrow's USC Scripter nominations announcement. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil is hearing "multiple reports" of back room dealings with guys in smoking jackets holding snifters of brandy coming close to a deal that will permit the Golden Globes show to go on in the midst of the strike. [Gold Derby]

•  David Carr comes back and focuses on the "other" horse race of 2008. [The Carpetbagger]

•  The Baltimore Sun's Michael Sragow, perhaps rightly, hypothesizes that hero lampooning no longer interests audiences, weighing the box office receipts of "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story" against those of "The Great Debaters." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Ryan Stewart sits down with the "There Will be Blood" script to find clues of Daniel Plainview's impotence over the holiday break. [Cinematical]

•  Gerard Kennedy reviews some of the film scores of 2007. [In Contention]

•  Matching Nathaniel Rogers, Peter Debruge also takes a quick look at the Oscar season's last two takers: "Honeydripper" and "The Orphanage." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jeffrey Wells gives into the cross-over box office success of "Juno," but makes the mistake of thinking "good enough" has anything to do with what gets nominated for an Oscar. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone points us to a Washington Post story asking whether TWC's "The Great Debaters" has the stuff to push it to an Oscar nod.  Hm... [Awards Daily]

•  More fashion talk. [The Envelope]

•  Nathaniel Rogers spotlights the year's overrated cinematic efforts... [The Film Experience]

•  ...and chalks "300" up as one of the year's worst.  What???  But I'm with him on "The Brave One." [The Film Experience]

•  Martin Grove is already forecasting the 2008 holiday movie season -- box office, that is. [The Hollywood Reporter]

Took a few days off as I dealt with family, holiday nightmares and shopping fiasco, but I thought I'd pop in tody to see what's happening on the Oscarweb -- call it the Christmas edition.  I hope you and yours are enjoying a splendid holiday season.

•  Jeffrey Wells thinks Janusz Kaminski is an overrated lenser to say the least.  Yeah, I thought he was out of his skull when he posted that, too. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  But he at least has the guts to call the "Titanic" bashers of the world reactive to its pop culture phenomenon rather than the actual content: a sweeping epic that works quite well, especially in the finale. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The top 10 lists keep on a'collectin' at MCN. [Movie City News]

•  A Merry Christmas from Tom O'Neil's family never hurt anyone! [Gold Derby]

•  The "Great Debaters" campaign kicks into high gear (try though they might) as Robert Welkos talks to actress Jurnee Smollett. [The Envelope]

•  Gerard Kennedy has a lot on his mind following the crush of Fall finals. [In Contention]
•  Nathaniel Rogers offers some thoughts on "The Ballad of Sweeney Todd" and tim burton's long-awaited screen adaptation of a Sondheim classic. [The Film Experience]
•  Claudia Puig loves, loves, loves her some "Persepolis"... [USA Today]

•  ...hates, hates, hates "The Bucket List"... [USA Today]..and is somewhere in the middle on "The Great Debaters." [USA Today]
•  The local paper also reviews all three this holiday week. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Ah, the great interview ops -- Scott Bowles corners Morgan Freeman on a schooner off of Marina Del Rey. [USA Today]

•  A bit of a stretch, but we come up with nine "scandals" this Oscar season nonetheless. [The Envelope]

•  James McAvoy talks to "Atonement" star James McAvoy. [The Envelope]

•  Creative Screenwriting's Jeff Goldsmith gets some quality time with "Lars and the Real Girl" scribe Nancy Oliver. [The Envelope]

•  Amy Adams, Jennifer Garner and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" make some serious leaps at the Buzzmeter. [The Envelope]

•  Speaking of Adams, David Poland makes mention of the current media "crush" on the actress. [The Hot Blog]

•  Tom O'Neil thinks the Alliance of Film Journalists' decision to go with the macho-heavy "No Country for Old Men" is unexpected to say the least. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells takes in a Denzel Washington event at Harvard. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Nathaniel Rogers sits down with "Margot at the Wedding" star Jennifer Jason Leigh. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine closes up the year by giving Judd Apatow more publicity. [Vulture]

•  T.L. Stanley responds to Patrick Goldstein's latest blind swing at the "evil" Oscar bloggers -- more on that later. [Gold Rush]

•  Michael Wood talks to Golden Globe nominee John C. Reilly about "Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story." [Los Angeles Times]

Award Central has a little feature up with reactions from a handful of today's Golden Globe nominees.  "Atonement" star Saoirse Ronan and "Across the Universe" helmer Julie Taymor are in there, as well as Craig Zadan, producer of the Best Picture-nominated "Hairspray."  Take a look.

Also, today's nod for "The Great Debaters" isn't the first awards mention of the week for the film.  The PGA announced yesterday that the Denzel Washington effort will receive its Stanley Kramer award, reserved for films that address social concerns.

The only thing that sticks out about this morning's Golden Globe nominations is that "The Great Debaters" finally got a leg up, a "surprise" that a number of forecasters saw coming in the days leading up to the announcement.  But seriously, a monkey could have seen this stuff coming.

Focus' "Atonement" led the field by a wide margin with seven nominations, including the first tip of the hat this year for lead actor James McAvoy.  "Charlie Wilson's War" grabbed five nods while "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed four.

Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild," meanwhile, got a significant ding -- two nominations, for Best Original Score and Best Original Song -- while "There Will Be Blood" showed up as one of SEVEN Best Drama nominees and in the Best Actor category for Daniel Day-Lewis' maniacal portrayal.

On the whole, it really does read like business as usual.  Nothing to talk about that tickles MY fancy, in any case.  Here's the Variety story.

(The HFPA website is slow to update the list, but it's coming.)

•  The "Eye on the Oscar" features look to film music... [Variety]

•  ...and visual effects. [Variety]

•  Will the industry really turn down the chance to get loaded on NBC's dime? [Variety]

•  Susan Thea Posnock talks to "Eastern Promises" star Viggo Mortensen. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley thinks the Bay area critics picked the wrong western. [Gold Rush]

•  David Poland has a chat with Chicago Film Critics nominee Leslie Mann. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ramin Satoodeh attends the NYC premiere of "There Will Be Blood." [The Gold Digger]

•  New York Magazine takes a stab at predicting the Golden Globe nominees. [Vulture]

•  So does Tom O'Neil. [Gold Derby]

•  Lou Lumenick takes a Catholic Bishop to task regardin ghte message of "Juno."  Only in Oscar season, folks. [New York Post]

•  59 songs make the Oscar "short" list.  Pick three. [The Envelope]

•  Rachel Abramowitz talks to the "Bucket" boys, Morgan Freeman and Jack Nicholson. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Oprah Winfrey splits her advocacy between a presdential candidate and an Oscar contender. [USA Today]

The Envelope's Tom O'Neil hustled me to the fringes of last night's "Sweeney" soirée to talk the Oscar race.  Here's the mp3.  Mind you I had just zipped over there after taking a final that had capably knocked the wind out of me, so who knows what I said.  Good news is I was only on beer #1.

Tom also got Johnny Depp and Stephen Sondheim on the record.

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

•  Yours truly takes a look at "The Great Debaters." [In Contention]

•  Anne Thompson offers some hard Oscar knocks for "Into the Wild," "Zodiac," indicates potential awards greatness for "Enchanted." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  T.L. Stanley wonders if "August Rush" could be this year's "Mr. Holland's Opus." [Gold Rush]

•  The Envelope continues to give more and more tech category consideration due, one would assume, to Sheigh Crabtree's spirited efforts...bravo.  Today, Patrick "I hate Oscar bloggers" Goldstein talks to Harris Savides, largely about "American Gangster."  [The Envelope]

•  Meanwhile, Elizabeth Snead talks to Alexandra Byrne about the one nomination you can put money on for "Elizabeth: The Golden Age": Best Costume Design. [The Envelope]

•  Mark Olsen chats it up with Todd Haynes re: "I'm Not There." [The Envelope]

•  Choire Sicha has a profile of "Diving Bell" star Emmanuelle Seigner. [Los Angeles Times]

•  According to the AP, a judge argues against the sale of two Mark Pickford Oscars in Los Angeles county. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil updates us on what films guild and Academy members have recieved, though he leaves off the Focus titles (which shipped this week). [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells thinks Time magazine has "damned" the Oscar chances of "Charlie Wilson's War" by talking about the film with a light and whimsical syntax. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick responds to the documentary feature shortlist. [New York Post]

•  Documentary director A.J. Schnack does the same...in fact, he's a little pissed, to be quite honest. [All These Wonderful Things, indieWIRE]

•  Ryan C. Adams takes us back to "Waitress." [Awards Daily]

James Newton Howard is a busy man this year.  In addition to composing the music for "The Great Debaters," "I Am Legend," "The Lookout" and "Michael Clayton," I'm just now realizing he was tapped by Mike Nichols to replace the original composer on "Charlie Wilson's War" (which, FYI, explains the film's tardiness in a certain regard -- the sound mix is said to still be in the process of completion).  Five films, four of them, perhaps, aiming for major awards contention.

Hope you catch up on some sleep over the holidays, Mr. Howard.  Sheesh...

•  Anne Thompson sticks it to the Academy screening committe for not giving the little guys a chance -- namely, "Lars and the Real Girl." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  indieWIRE tracks the buzz on documentary feature eigibility. [indieWIRE]

•  David Poland follows suit. [The Hot Blog]

•  And Sasha Stone, too. [Awards Daily]

•  Claiming that "The Bucket List," "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd" are looking "hazy" as Best Picture contenders, Jeffrey Wells thinks "The Great Debaters" is the season's last major hope. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Nathaniel Rogers has more insights into last week's Tim Burton event in New York. [The Film Experience]

•  Tom O'Neil spins his wheels about the Oscar chances of "Margot at the Wedding." [Gold Derby]

•  Ramon Setoodeh is still taking credit for a prediction that a) wasn't that unpopular when he made it; and b) hasn't exactly come to fruition yet, given that we're over two months away from nominations. [The Gold Digger]

•  New York Magazine calls it a "great week for 'Diving Bell'" in it's latest weekly recap. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick chimes in with thoughts on the online "Sweeney Todd" events of the week. [New York Post]

•  Randee Dawn talks to Noah Baumbach about "Margot at the Wedding." [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  Sasha Stone ponders whether "Beowulf" is being overshadowed by Angie's star. [Awards Daily]

•  Pete Hammond buzzes "longshot" Oscar possibilities, including Will Smith in "I Am Legend," of which he asks, "Is there any prognosticator out there who has even broached the idea of a Smith nomination this year?"  Uh, yeah.  This one, actually. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil on pregnancy as marketing power for Cate Blanchett and Helena Bonham Carter. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells on Oprah Winfrey (therefore, "The Great Debaters"), not being phased by a lack of TV publicity due to the WGA strike. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick thinks the Dec. 26 DVD release of "Eastern Promises" could bolster Viggo Mortensen's Best Actor hopes. [New York Post]

The Weinstein Company, which is understandably searching for a big awards contender amongst likely smaller successes in "Control" and "I'm Not There," will be pulling out "The Great Debaters" for a December release aimed at awards contention, as reported last month.  Well, a trailer has finally arrived (as of Monday, in fact -- been meaning to comment on it ever since).

Produced by Oprah Winfrey and directed by Denzel Washington (who also stars), the film seems to have that golden hue Oscar voters love so much.

Or, rather...that Oscar voters USED to love so much.

I've been wondering, as of late, whether the Academy of today is no longer the Academy Harvey Weinstein so clearly understood in years past.  Tugging those heartstrings, aiming for the "meat and potatoes" voters, a term Weinstein coined, this was the honcho's MO during his hey-day.  But the Academy that took stands for "Shakespeare in Love" and "Life is Beautiful," among others, seems to be a different group than that which has gone on the record for "The Lord of the Rings," "Brokeback Mountain" and "The Departed" in recent memory.

Weinstein himself felt the sting last year when "Bobby," a seemingly tailor-made Academy film that nailed down major nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Screen Actors Guild, failed to make it into Oscar's final five.  Granted, the film hit a big critical snag (I'm one of the few who really enjoyed it), but I also think the critical assessment of today is a touch different than it was in the pre-9/11 era.

And that brings about a whole other can of worms.  Much as I hate to bring an Oscar discussion into that realm, it is worth pointing out the somber nature of cinema en masse in recent years and, especially, in the last ten months.  2007 has been a downer year for the ages.

"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Gone Baby Gone," "In the Valley of Elah, "Into the Wild," "Margot at the Wedding," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "Reservation Road," "There Will Be Blood," "Things We Lost in the Fire," "Zodiac" -- these are not bastions of uplifting cinema.

Even "Beowulf," an exhilerating spectacle of a film, ends on the ambiguous, almost cynical note of perpetual corruption and moral perversion at the highest levels of leadership.

I don't know what kind of fair weather "The Great Debaters" should hope for in the coming weeks as it continues to screen for a critical community that would rather scowl than feel all gooey inside.  But at least it'll assumably have a unique feel-good quotient going for it this season, alongside films like "Juno," "The Kite Runner" and "Once."  When Academy members sit down to vote, they've shown us time and again that there is something to be said for an alternative to the year's emotional status quo.

We shall see...