There are a couple of stories up this week detailing the correlation between box office and film awards success, starting here at home base with Pamela McClintock's Thursday piece.  The story is a pure numbers crunch, no quoted sources, but it gives the clear indication that, this year specially, the golden guys matter.

Here's how she kicks things off:

There's been an unusually strong awards box office bump this year, with the five best picture contenders combining to gross $97 million domestically since Academy Award nominations were announced Jan. 22.

That's more than double the $44 million pulled in by last year's class during the same frame.

No one expected the uptick to come in at record levels, considering the five noms are specialty films that, outside of Fox Searchlight's runaway hit "Juno," offer gloom-and-doom storylines. Also, two of the films -- Warner Bros.' "Michael Clayton" and Miramax's "No Country for Old Men" -- were well into their runs.

Heading into Oscar weekend, the total combined domestic cume for five best picture noms, which all began as limited releases, through Tuesday was $314.4 million, according to Rentrak. That compares to a combined cume of $287.8 million last year.

Last year, the best picture contenders grossed an average of $8.8 million between the time of the Oscar announcements and the week before the ceremony. In each of the two years prior to that, the top noms grossed an average of $13 million during the same time period.

This year, the average is $19.4 million.

Check out the rest.


Meanwhile, over at USA Today, I spoke with Anthony Breznican for a story concerning the Oscars as a cog in the marketing scheme rather than the victory lap they used to be.  Also quoted are Lionsgate prexy Tom Ortenberg, Awards Daily's Sasha Stone and Box Office Mojo's Brandon Gray.

Here's a look:

Today, every major film studio has specialty departments designed to create offbeat, smart contenders for the awards. They typically are films with modest budgets (usually less than $50 million) and limited promotion — at least initially.

In essence, such films are orchestrated to start off as word-of-mouth favorites among devoted moviegoers. As a result, they can wind up as Academy Award nominees with relatively few people having seen them.

Three films that fit that model are among the five contenders for best picture at the Academy Awards, which air live on Sunday (ABC, 8 p.m. ET/5 PT). They involve a bloodthirsty pioneer oilman (There Will Be Blood), an air-gun-toting killer (No Country for Old Men) and a pregnant teenager (Juno).

The films — up against Michael Clayton and Atonement for best picture — have generated increasing buzz for months. But only Juno is a bona fide blockbuster so far, with a surprising $125.5 million in box-office receipts. The Oscar nominations are likely to spread the windfall.

The rest.

As I told Anthony when we spoke, I have never dug into these sorts of numbers to glean any real pattern or consistency.  It makes my brain hurt.  But it is, regardless, difficult to discredit the role award play in a film's profit.  However, I'm of the mind that Oscar success plays into the home market more fiercely than in the box office run.

A sticker that says "Academy Award Winner" is an enticing addition to a DVD case, and as I told Anthony, all one need do is take a look at, say, the netflix list of most rented movies in the weeks following the race to see films like "Mystic River" and "Crash" dominating the top 10 most rented titles.

In any case, it's a circular conversation and a part of the equation parties much better versed (and indeed, much more affected) will coninute to pick at until the end of days.

In case you missed it, we closed out that two day look at the year's single greatest images yesterday.  Be sure to give it a look and offer up your own thoughts.  Whatever your stance on the shots selected, it's difficult to disagree with the idea that 2007 had some daring, vibrant and exciting work behind the camera.

As "Atonement" lenser Seamus Mcgarvey told me, "bravery and spirited independence is coming back into cinematography."  I agree wholeheartedly.

Check out part one here.  And part two here.  And the also rans.

Variety has the story on last night's Costume Designers Guild Awards, where Colleen Atwood ("Sweeney Todd"), Ann Roth ("The Golden Compass") and Julie Weiss ("Blades of Glory") reigned supreme.  The question lingering is, will Atwood turn the same trick at the Oscars?

Not so fast.

While Atwood has two Oscars to her credit ("Chicago" and "Memoirs of a Geisha"), she now has a whopping five trophies from the guild, adding "Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events," "Sleepy Hollow" and, now, "Sweeney" to the list.

The guild clearly loves her, having even nominated her for "Planet of the Apes" in 2000.

Incidentally, I was over at the FIDM fashion institute downtown this afternoon checking out the film costume design showcase and one of the curators was going on and on about how "nice" and "cool" Atwood is.  She's a legend in the field, but that doesn't always translate over to the Academy at large, so be careful.

Jacqueline Durran and Alexandra Byrne are still heavy favorites to take this statuette.  The latter, especially, features wall-to-wall garbs that might be too intoxicating to pass up, much like last year's "Marie Antoinette."  The former, meanwhile, has that sparkling green dress and plenty of period threads to prove a suitable winner.  It's a tight race, but Atwood's win yesterday evening doesn't add as much steam as one might think, so go with the gut here (which, for some, may very well be Atwood).

And check out Salini Dore's FIDM film costume design exhibit profile if you just can't get enough.

I'll be attending tonight's Cinema Audio Society Awards at the Millennium Biltmore downtown and will try to post some commentary and pics from the event later this evening.

Greg P. Russell and Kevin O'Connell, of course, are trying not only for their first Oscar win this year, but for their first embrace from their peers in the society.  However, "No Country for Old Men" has become a popular choice in the guild circuit and, indeed, has been championed for its creative aural touches by the sound community as a whole.  So it'll be interesting to see how things play out.

Tomorrow the American Cinema Editors dish out their kudos.  From what I'm hearing, "The Bourne Ulatimatum" should reign triumphant there and not the Coens' Roderick Jaynes composite, believe it or not.  I think the Oscars might follow suit there.

And finally, the Art Directors Guild will hand out awards in three categories.  The period field will be the one to watch, where three Oscar nominees square off against one another: "Atonement," "Sweeney Todd" and "There Will Be Blood."

"Atonement" casting director Jina Jay offered extended, behind-the-veil thoughts on what went into populating Joe Wright's film at The Times this week.  Jay is an old pro in the industry, with an impressive list of credits you can read through at the beginning of her piece.

There's plenty of discussion about Jay's career, but the meat of the story has to be her comments on finding the right actresses to portray the 13 year old incarnation of Briony Tallis:

Casting three actresses to play one role in Atonement was very challenging. We focused on the essence, spirit and intellect of Briony’s mind and soul, and applied this to all three Brionys. That they ended up looking similar is a coincidence – or perhaps subconsciously there was design.

Finding the 13-year-old Briony was a huge challenge. Very often one is trying to find a child who, at that point in his/her life, captures the essence of the character. The stunning thing about Saoirse Ronan is that she is not at all like Briony but she understands how to inhabit the soul of Briony. Saoirse had not even read the book and barely had time to read the screenplay in depth when we offered her role.

Check out the rest.


Meanwhile, our own David Cohen had a chance to spotlight one of the unsung heroes of the film, camera operator Peter Robinson, who wasn't too happy when he first heard that director Wright wanted to capture Dunkirk in a sweeping steady-cam shot:

The shot would cover a longer distance than any Steadicam shot Robertson had ever attempted, and would ask him to walk endlessly on soft sand while carrying the heavy camera and rig.

"There are so many things that can go wrong in a shot like that," Robertson observes.

But he dived into planning how he could do it, arranging various aids to get him around what amounted to an obstacle course.

"As a camera operator," Robertson says, "I have to be inspired by the shot, because I'm the first person, before even the audience, who has to see and make the shot work. It was an idea that challenged the gods, but once we got used to the idea, I said, 'We're going for this, and it's going to look great.'"

Read the full story.

The Features department has started winding things down in the lead-up to the 80th annual Academy Awards with the Eye on the Oscars: Oscar Wrap special.

Justin Chang has the lede, a fresh take on the split between male- and female-focused films this year.

The "How We Got Here" series is good for one last excavation of the top eight categories, starting, naturally, with Best Picture.  There's also a nice feature caputirng key quotes from Variety's screening series this year.

David Cohen writes up Gordon E. Sawyer Award recipient David A. Grafton (he of lens design fame), while Caroline Ryder and Mia McNiece take a quick look at challengers to Giorgia Armani's stranglehold on Oscar fashion.

Finally, Cohen spotlights two of the year's unsung heroes: "There Will Be Blood" special effects (read: OIL) coordinator Steve Cremin and "Atonement" steady cam operator Peter Robertson.  (More on the latter in a moment.)

New York Magazine's Vulture blog points us to this intriguing Reuters story above Oscar obsessiveness gone too far.  No such thing, I know, but it seems the head chef of New York's Carlyle hotel has whipped up a five course meal representing each of the year's Best Picture nominees.

No, seriously.  Take a look:

The dinner will begin with roasted parsnip tart, fresh shaved black truffle and perigourdine sauce. It is a creation stemming from what Sakatos described as "Ellen Page's fun and somewhat tarty portrayal of Juno."

Black ink risotto, mushrooms, cuttlefish and blood orange foam make up the "There Will Be Blood" second course.

"The black ink brings to mind the film's oil gushers, with blood orange foam to remind diners of the struggle and, of course, the title," Sakatos explained.

He chose Dover sole for "Michael Clayton" after "George Clooney's morally conflicted lawyer found his 'sole' and ultimately did the right thing," while "No Country for Old Men" is "plenty of manly beef -- and true grits to boot."

A passion fruit creme brulee ends the meal, reflecting the great passions of "Atonement," from "the young lovers' embrace to the little girl's jealously that caused her false accusation and ultimately the final passionate moment of atonement."

Read the rest.

I guess it would really have been a newsflash if he thought it stunk, channeling his inner Alan Moore.  Nevertheless, Min Lee has a nice piece to offer on the source material's author.   Here's a look:

Many authors find themselves disappointed when their work migrates to the big screen.

Not Ian McEwan.

He is happy with the movie version of his best-selling novel Atonement— though he concedes that, at first, he had reservations about its big budget and the medium of film itself.

The British author now praises director Joe Wright's "lush visual sense" and "real sense and eye for instinct, for the emotional heart."

And he appreciates screenwriter Christopher Hampton's ability to incorporate details from the book into the screenplay

Read the rest.

•  Kristin Thompson gets into the milkshake thing.  It's here to stay, folks. [DavidBordwell.net]

•  Jeffrey Wells points us to the Coen brothers' Wikipedia page, revealing the helmers' penchant for writing "the archetype of unstoppable evil" into their films. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone offers a "This is your life" look at the work of film editor "Roderick Jaynes."  Hear, hear! [Awards Daily]

•  Gina Piccalo talks to Gil Cates about "Plan A," safely underway with that pesky strike done and over with. [The Envelope]

•  The Coens "don't understand" the awards success and Oscar trajectory of "No Country for Old Men." [Los Angeles Times]

•  David Carr reviews "Atonement" in that bubble-wrapped state of aural diffusion he's making so wildly popular. [The Carpetbagger]

•  David Poland sticks up for poor Julian Schnabel, getting picked on for his eccentric pajama wearing.  I still don't understand why's he's become such an easy target.  I love the guy! [The Hot Blog]

•  William Keck sits down with SAG winner and Oscar nominee Ruby Dee. [USA Today]

•  Jack Nicholson takes considerable umbrage with the length of the Oscar season. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells digs the Oscar nominated short "I Met the Walrus." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone digs into the Best Actress category, considered sewn up in some quarters, an open field in others. [Awards Daily]

•  Yours truly takes another stab at how the race might be shaping up in a few tricky categories. [In Contention]

•  Tom O'Neil has a chat with Pete Hammond, who thinks Tilda Swinton may pull off an upset.  I'm thinking the exact same thing (see link above). [Gold Derby]

•  Roger Ebert -- no shock here -- picks Ellen Page to win Best Actress. [Chicago Sun Times]

•  John Horn and Gina Piccalo take an interesting angle on the Oscar ceremony: the need to scramble a show together, now that the strike is kaput. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin sits down with the chipper-as-always Saoirse Ronan. [USA Today]

•  Sasha Stone points us to the "No Country" campaign, teeth-bared, determined to win the big cheese, reaching full-blown overexposure as three -- count 'em -- three interview run on NPR (with producer Scott Rudin, directors Joel and Ethan Coen and Javer Bardem). [Awards Daily]

•  Gerard Kennedy chats it up with 20-timer Kevin O'Connell (nominated this year for "Transformers," as you surely know by now). [In Contention]

•  Jeffrey Wells was a little bummed at that mPRm BAFTA viewing party because of the -- well -- lack of suspense.  The winners, o course, were leaked earlier in the day. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Anne Thompson responds to the winners, gives her account of the night's festivities. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Ever the authority on what we "learn," David Poland kicks off the ten lessons of the 2007-08 Oscar season. [Movie City News]

•  A pie chart representing release dates and their representation in Oscar's ultimate nominees throughout the years. [The Film Experience]

•  Robert Downey, Jr. calls it a "crime" that Joe Wright was snubbed for "Atonement" during a set visit of the director's upcoming "The Soloist." [Guardian]

A week or so after David Carr fought off awards season fatigue/boredom by messing around with the initial letters of "No Country for Old Men," Nathaniel Rogers chimes in with anagram fun with the title "Michael Clayton."

There's "All Icy Omen Chat," "Thy Local Cinema," "Mythic Ole Canal" and the title of this entry, "Conceal thy mail."  Boy, we've hit our wall, folks.  But it's fun stuff nonetheless.

What can be done with the remaining two Best Picture contenders at this point?  "No Country" has the NCFOM schtick, "There Will Be Blood" gets the milkshake phenomenon, and now this for "Clayton."  Somebody step up for "Atonement" and "Juno" already.

Remember that green dress from "Atonement" that has been considered the greatest piece of film costuming ever, or something like that?  Anyway, if you want it, you can have it.  Focus Features has announced plans to auction the threads off to some lucky eccentric.

The press release, in part:

LOS ANGELES, January 31, 2008 – An iconic piece of movie history from one of this year’s Best Picture Oscar nominees will be auctioned off to benefit Variety – The Children’s Charity of Southern California, beginning later this week. The Clothes Off Our Back Foundation will host the online auction of the green evening dress worn by Keira Knightley in Focus Features’ Atonement, which is nominated for 7 Academy Awards including Best Picture and Best Costume Design. Focus CEO James Schamus made the announcement today.

The auction begins Friday, February 1st at the Foundation’s site www.clothesoffourback.org and ends Saturday, March 1st. Bidding will start at $1,000. The auction is for the green evening dress memorably worn during the crucial emotional and romantic sequences by Ms. Knightley as Cecilia Tallis, opposite James McAvoy as Robbie Turner, in director Joe Wright’s Atonement. Upon the film’s release, the dress quickly became one of the most influential cinematic costumes of recent years, being spotlighted on The Today Show and detailed on the covers of newspapers and magazines.

Mr. Schamus commented, “Atonement is an epic romance that has moved filmgoers, and garnered awards and acclaim, all over the world. As with our previous auction of the two shirts worn in Brokeback Mountain, we are proud to give someone a chance to own a cherished part of a beloved film and in the process benefit the Variety charity.”

If you need a refresher on the smokin' hot dress in question, here you go:


 
It makes you wonder.  With all the attention this dress is getting, Jacquelin Durran might be on her way to winning the Oscar after all.  I kind of thought "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" had it in the bag, and given the win for last year's "Marie Antointte," we know they don't care about "quality" in this category.  But with this Best Picture nominee in the mix, perhaps that's the way to go.

The dress is also being displayed at FIDM's annual film costume showcase, according to the LA Times.  You know, if you have to see it IMMEDIATELY and can't afford to jump into the bidding war.

Actress in a Supporting Role  Saoirse Ronan
Art Direction  Sarah Greenwood (Art Direction); Katie Spencer (Set Decoration)
Cinematography  Seamus McGarvey
Costume Design  Jacqueline Durran
Music (Score)  Dario Marianelli
Best Picture  Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner and Paul Webster, Producers
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)  Written by Christopher Hampton

•  Place your bets! [Hollywood Stock Exchange]

•  Sasha Stone previews the DGA race, warns against getting caught up in last minute predictions chaos, and mixes in some other considerations for good measure. [Awards Daily]

•  The DGA Awards, by the way, will be hosted by Carl Reiner. [Variety]

•  We've also got a massive preview of the awards, with looks at peripheral nominees (assistant directors, anyone?), the newbie nature of the group and some huzzahs for DGA attorney Jay Roth. [Variety]

•  An old post, but Jeffrey Wells considers nominations for art direction, cinematography, costume design and score to be "soft" tips of the hat for "Atonement." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil says to bank on Julie Christie at Sunday's SAG Awards.  Lionsgate flooded the screener market again. [Gold Derby]

•  David Carr makes some final observations on the nominations, taking note of the newbies and diversity in the line-up and pointing out that "Into the Wild" deserved "better treatment." [The Carpetbagger]

•  New York Magazine draws humorous parallls between the year's Best Picture nominees and the current political climate. [Vulture]

•  In analyzing this year's nominees, Kyle Smith makes us wonder why he's even in this business. [New York Post]

•  In case you haven't heard, things are looking up for the Oscar telecast. [Variety]

•  Scott Bowles follows it up and digs up some industry chit-chat on alternatives. [USA Today]

•  Finally, A.O. Scott writes up the legacy of Heath Ledger for The Paper of Record. [New York Times]

Taking a break from Oscar blogger bashing yesterday, Patrick Goldtein of the Los Angeles Times pondered the peculiarities of this year's Oscar line-up.  He sees the 2007 as further evidence of a paradigm shift away from the status quo of Hollywood dollars and the continued enbracing of maverick visions.

He starts out like so:

When I took a bleary-eyed glance at the nomination results early yesterday morning, I have to admit that my first reaction was -- is this the Oscars or the Independent Spirit Awards?

Four of the five nominees for best picture are films released by studio specialty divisions, which largely focus on movies with a limited commercial reach. The fifth film, "Michael Clayton," was released by Warner Bros. but financed by Steve Samuels, a real estate developer from Boston who bankrolled the project when no studio would put up the money.

And later, he really digs in:

Most telling of all, the best picture nominees are not films that could have endured the "Survivor"-like experience of receiving notes from today's studio executives, cautious overseers obsessed with establishing character motivation and ensuring that the audience is never confused or particularly challenged. I won't give away any spoilers, but both "No Country for Old Men" and Anderson's' "There Will Be Blood" have striking endings that have confounded or even outraged viewers, but they've remained intact, since when you throw your lot in with these guys, if you're in for a dime, you're in for a dollar.

One can only imagine what would've happened to any of these nominees if they'd been forced to run the gauntlet of research screenings, with "No Country's" unflinching lack of emotion, "There Will Be Blood's" baldly unsympathetic lead character, "Atonement's" fractured flashback-and-forward narrative, "Michael Clayton's" elusive storytelling and "Juno's" casual acceptance of a 16-year-old girl's unplanned pregnancy. Although distributed by Fox Searchlight, "Juno" was independently financed by Mandate Pictures, which specializes in low-budget art-house and horror movies. If the film had been at a major studio it wouldn't be a stretch to hear a studio executive saying to Diablo Cody, who wrote the script, "I really love the cool slang and the funny phone, but does Juno really have to be pregnant?"

Read the rest.

Stu Levine and the rest of the Variety crew are hard at work this morning taking reactions from various Oscar nominees.  There's a healthy list piling up, so take a look.

My favorite is this heart-felt and honest response from Best Supporting Actress nominee for "Atonement," Saoirse Ronan:

"It's the most wonderful feeling.  I probably sound really boring because it's the same thing that happened with the Golden Globes but I was sleeping and my dad screamed and started shouting for us and I came downstairs thinking 'there's a chance that maybe I was nominated for an Oscar.'  I'm really proud of all the guys, Seamus McGarvey in particular because he's Irish.  I'm Irish and I can't believe this is happening to an Irish person."

Ronan was calling from New Zealand where she's shooting "The Lovely Bones" for director Peter Jackson.

"It's the most beautiful place I've been to and I've only been here for two days. It's 3:30 in the morning so we'll celebrate later. We might get fish 'n’ chips because I hear they're really good here, but it won't be anything too posh. We weren't expecting this so we're gonna go to the local supermarket and get the nicest bottle of champagne that we can.  I might have a sip or two."

•  Predictions abound this final pre-nom morning, as Nathaniel Rogers rounds up his final Oscar predictions. [The Film Experience]

•  Daniel Kenealy does the same. [Awards Daily]

•  Gerard Kennedy gives a last look at the outstanding tech races. [In Contention]

•  Robert Welkos digs into the stats to read oscar's crystal ball. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil has long lists galore. [Gold Derby]

•  And Jeffrey Wells wants it all to be over...with a little "Atonement" plea to boot. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Art Directors get an emcee in the form of Harry Shearer. [Variety]

•  "Ratatouille" and "Once" are tops with the Golden Tomatoes [Associated Press via Variety]

•  Ben Sisario profiles Kimya Dawson, the artist behind the whimsical lyrical stylings of the "Juno" soundtrack. [New York Times]

•  "Lust, Caution" and "Warlords" tops list of Asian Film Award nominations. [Variety]

•  Not Oscar related, but let us all take a moment to thank Warner Bros. for letting "Justice League" die a silent death.  Boy was THAT giving me an icky feeling inside. [Variety]

•  Anne Thompson responds to the BAFTA nominations, wonders whether "Atonement" can manage peripheral nods with the Academy, even though Best Picture is looking like a tough sell. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  But Jeffrey Wells wants to make sure you realize the film is "dead." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Thompson, meanwhile, thinks the coast is clear for director Joe Wright.  Back and forth, back and forth. [Guardian]

•  The Times of London wonders if the BAFTAs could one-up the Oscars for once, given the hammer-lock AMPAS is in. [Times Online]

•  But, mind you, the show will go on.  In what capacity, well...we'll see. [Variety]

•  But if it's business as usual, the ceremony WILL BE PICKETED. [Scribe Vibe]

•  Scott Foundas is pretty pissed about that AMPAS snub of "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days."  But "Academy Awards infamy" is typically reaching. [LA Weekly]

•  So is Nancy Vialatte. [Hollywood Wiretap]

•  Tom O'Neil rounds up a provocative list of thesps nominated for the "wrong" performance. [Gold Derby]

•  The Gurus o' Gold check int, post-Globes and, assumably, for the final time before next week's Oscar nominations announcement. [Movie City News]

•  New York Magazine wants the Academy to remember "The Host" in the Best Picture category. [Vulture]

The final Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope should come with a caveat.  Many of the participants in the collective have their own websites, and predictions could change before the announcement of Tuesday's nominees.  And in a race this tight, who can blame them?

The collective is going with Best Picture snubs for "Atonement" and "Into the Wild," but Emile Hirsch and Joe Wright make appearances nontheless.  I'm not sure how that works, but anyway, take a look.

I first came across this factoid in the comments section of yesterday's "Oscar history" entry from a reader named Chris, and again today I see that Pete Hammond is making the assertion.  But apparently, if "Atonement" and "Sweeney Todd" both miss out on Best Picture nominations next week (as it seems they will), it will be the second time in the history of life as we know it that neither of the Golden Globe Best Picture winners received a nod from the Academy.  And you have to go way back to 1955 to find the only other instance.

I've said it a million times and I'll say it a million more: WEIRD YEAR.

I was supposed to sit down with "Atonement" star Saoirse Ronan over the weekend, but delayed flights and cranky jetlag kind of took that off the table in a hurry.  The least I can do is link to this David Poland interview with the actress, who seems like a radiant young lady with a bright future ahead of her.

The Features department continues to plough exhaustively through the season, this week spotlighting the sound mixers, sound editors and visual effects artists.  There's also a roundup of contending producers.

Additionally, you'll find a phase one wrap-up that starts with a look behind the veil at the Academy's preferential voting process.  Peter Debruge follows that up with a look at the Academy's short film categories, and the philosophy that those arenas are considered an "incubator for future talent" by AMPAS.

Finally, the issue closes on an interesting piece about the "controversial, unexpected or downright puzzling" endings of films such as "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Atonement," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood."  Andrew Barker has the byline.

The ever-sleepless staff here at Variety has put together an assemblage of the 21 Most Unforgettable Movie Moments of 2007.  The usual suspects are represented: the tracking shot from "Atonement," the Waterloo sequence from "The Bourne Ultimatum," (a damn fine call) the knife fight from "Eastern Promises," etc.

For me, one of the scenes that will stick in my mind more than any other is unquestionably the final sequence of "There Will Be Blood."  I also found the polar bear fight from "The Golden Compass" to be absolutely thrilling, while the opening action sequence from "The Host" was heart-stopping as well -- and visually creative to boot.  "No Country for Old Men," despite being a film whose philosophy rings a little cheaper to me than it does elsewhere int he critical community, is packed with tiny masterpieces of cinematic gold from sequence to sequence, not the least of which is Chigurgh's stalking of Moss in that dingy, dark hotel room.

But if I had to pick a moment that stood head and shoulders above the rest this year, it would have to be the opening train robberty sequence from "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford."  At once gripping and gorgeous on every level.

Here's what Variety thinks...what about you?

The American Society of Cinematographers has announced its list of nominees.  Here they are, with nary a surprise in sight:

"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Roger Deakins)
"Atonement" (Seamus McGarvey)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Janusz Kaminski)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roger Deakins)
"There Will be Blood" (Robert Elswit)

I really thought the guild would go for Harris Savides' work in either "American Gangster" or "Zodiac," since, in talking to the majority of the big names in this field over the last few weeks for a separate piece, his is the most lauded lenser of the bunch from within their ranks.  Eric Gautier seemed a decent bet for capturing the American West so gorgeously in "Into the Wild," not to mention the paitnerly qualities of Dariusz Wolski's work in "Sweeney Todd."  But I can certainly live with this line-up.

According to the ASC's press release (published below), Roger Deakins is the first lenser to grab two nominations in one year from the guild.  Each of his nods are well deserved to say the least, and it really does seem foregone that he's well on his way to his first Oscar next month.

In any case, this wouldn't be a shocking final five at the Oscars, with outside shots still possible for Gautier and Wolski.  Sasha Stone has an ASC/Oscar comparison chart up over at Awards Daily if you want to crunch the numbers.

Here's the full press release:

LOS ANGELES, January 7, 2008 — THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES BY THE COWARD ROBERT FORD and NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN with cinematography by Roger Deakins, ASC, BSC; THERE WILL BE BLOOD by Robert Elswit, ASC; THE DIVING BELL AND THE BUTTERFLY by Janusz Kaminski; and ATONEMENT by Seamus McGarvey, BSC have been nominated in the Feature Film category of the 22nd Annual American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Outstanding Achievement Awards competition. The winner will be announced here during the awards gala on January 26, at the Hollywood and Highland Grand Ballroom.

Deakins is the first cinematographer to claim two nominations in one year in the ASC Feature Film category. He was previously nominated five times and won twice (THE SHAWSHANK REDEMPTION, THE MAN WHO WASN’T THERE). This is the fourth ASC nomination for Kaminski, the second for Elswit, and the first for McGarvey.

“In the opinion of their peers, these four talented individuals have set the contemporary standard for artful cinematography in a very competitive field,” says Russ Alsobrook, ASC who chairs the organization’s Awards Committee. “They all succeeded in helping to create a sense of time and place while evoking emotional responses that were in tune with the intentions of the directors and actors.”

Deakins is from England, Kaminski is from Poland, McGarvey is from Ireland, and Elswit is a native of the United States.

“Artful cinematography is a global language, which frequently goes unnoticed by critics and the general public because it is usually designed to be unintrusive,” says ASC President Daryn Okada. “It requires innate talent, the ability to master a complex and constantly evolving craft, and a penchant for collaborating with many people for a common goal. Our purpose is to let our colleagues know we appreciate their artistry.”

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

Variety looks at the acting races this weekend with an Awards Season Focus: 10 stories, all built around the thespians.

To kick it off, Stu Levine surveys the dark horse Oscar hopefuls that grabbed Golden Globe nominations, James McAvoy ("Atonement") and Helena Bonham Carter ("Sweeney Todd") among them.  But it begs the question, and not just for the dark horses that already need all the publicity they can get: Will contenders simply be hurting themselves by not showing up?  The dress rehearsal for Oscar is always the acceptance speech at a Golden Globe ceremony, so...just sayin...

Anyway, continuing, Robert Hofler gets into comedic performances getting the shaft, while Peter Debruge takes a healthy look at critical consensus building for various portrayals.  Despite consensus, however, Robert Abele wonders whether old-timers like Frank Langella ("Starting Out in the Evening") or youthful hopefuls like Emile Hirsch ("Into the Wild") could step in and surprise a la Adrien Brody's 2002 victory for "The Pianist."

There's also a great piece from Sandee Angulo Chen about the modern abandonment of Method acting technique, but take a look at the full range of stories, there's plenty to chew on.

•  If you haven't heard by now, the actors are throwing a wrench into the works. [Variety]

•  Elvis Mitchell, Glenn Kenny, Harry Knowles et al. discuss the ending of "No Country for Old Men." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  John Horn dissects the Oscar hopes for "Zodiac" in the wake of considerable year-end critical support. [The Envelope]

•  Jeffrey Wells leaps for joy. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Yes, an award for Weblogs.  Believe it. [Bloggies]

•  Stu VanAirsdale live blogs 699 minutes of Paul Thomas Anderson product for the sheer hell of it. [The Reeler]

•  Tom O'Neil and Dave Karger mull the season over.  Lots of these popping up lately.  No one has the answers! [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers starts his year in review with a tease.  No top 10 in sight yet, but wait for it... [The Film Experience]

•  T.L. Stanley seems perturbed at the year in advance Oscar prediction fun.  Key word: fun. [Gold Rush]

•  Ramin Setoodeh pairs off the various Oscar hopefuls with Presidential counterparts.  "Atonement" = Hilary Clinton?  [The Gold Digger]

•  "Juno" is up and "Sweeney Todd" is down, according to New York Magazine. [Vulture]

•  "Atonement" wins the vote for "Best Costume of All Time."  I like curvy women, so on Keira, I gotta say...those green threads seemed a tad wasted. [The Daily Telegraph]

•  David Poland kicks off his list of the year's best by taking a jab at supporters of "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac," chalks the lovefest up to "critical onanism."  Oh, and "I'm Not There" tops his list. [The Hot Button]

•  Bob Verini hypothesizes the comedy and musical categories of the Golden Globes to be a major audience draw for a telecast. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to filmmaker Daivd Fincher about "Zodiac" and next year's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," among other things. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil and Pete Hammond call the race as it is...for now, anyway. [Gold Derby]

•  The Times of London has a sit-down with "4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Times Online]

•  Todd Martens on the music behind John Salyes' "Honeydripper." [Extended Play]

•  Stu VanAirsdale kicks off his annual "Top 10 Top 10 Lists" list. [The Reeler]

•  Josh Jurgensen sits down with Tim Burton to talk "Sweeney Todd." [Wall Street Journal]

•  A little Helena Bonham Carter worship from Nathaniel Rogers. [The Film Experience]

•  "Atonement," "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "The Great Debaters" land on a list of the week's mostpirated flicks. [Torrent Freak]

•  The Hollywood Reporter's Andrew Wallenstein responds. [Reel Pop]

•  New York Magazine, meanwhile, wonders how long studios will continue to mail out screeners given how piracy happens each and every year...but I wouldn't worry about that yet. [Vulture]

•  Ramin Setoodeh is back with an anti-"Atonement" survey, an anti-"Sweeney Todd" hypothesis, and some pro-"Juno" sentiments. [The Gold Digger]

•  Paul Brownfield talks to Vanessa Redgrave about the "gravity" of her five minutes in "Atonement." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin gets into the threads of "Sweeney Todd" with costume designer Collen Atwood. [USA Today]

•  A night out on the town with "The Kite Runner" star Khaid Abdallah. [New York Times]

•  Lindsay Lohan is guaranteed at least one award this year. [MSNBC]

Looking at Awards Daily's USC Scripter preview, something just seems a bit clinical about Sasha Stone's list of predicted nominees.  This is an award that has certainly included curevablls in the mix:  "The Bourne Supremacy," "Friday Night Lights" and "The Door in the Floor" in 2004; "The Shipping News" in 2001; "All the Pretty Horses" and "The House of Mirth" in 2000, etc.  Granted, looking back over the award's match-up with Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, the safe bet is usually to expect the frontrunners to pop up, but there's a wide swath to pick from this year.

Sasha is going with "Atonement," "Charlie Wilson's War," "Into the Wild," "No Country for Old Men," and "There Will Be Blood."  Of course, as Stone points out, the Scripter honors both the screenwriters and the originalauthors of the source material, so it's really hard to expect Ian McEwan, Cormac McCarthy and Upton Sinclair missing from the mix.  I'm not as sold on George Crile and even Jon Krakauer, but it's certainly likely we'll see these scripts show up here and with Oscar.  Still, "The Kite Runner" was such a global hit when it landed on bookshelves and Dennis Lehane ("Gone Baby Gone") is such a celebrated author.  And given the "Bourne" entry in '04, who's to say Tony Gilroy can't slide in yet again for what has widely been considered the best offering in the trilogy?

It's all speculation for now, so we'll have to wait and see.  But the USC Scripter kicks off 2008's continuance of the Oscar season tomorrow, so stay tuned...