•  Anne Thompson reports on last night's Miramax shindig before offering up her last minute guesses for tonight's awards. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  David Carr was there, too, adding his unique spin on things. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Jeffrey Wells isn't too keen on "Juno" winning big at last night's IndieSpirits, but he sure did get low and close for a nice Ellen Page shot. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone writes up her final "State of the Race" column, with predictions to boot. [Awards Daily]

•  Regarding predictions, by the way, yours truly is on the record. [In Contention]

•  Mary McNamara writes a "Dear JON" letter to Oscar host Jon Stewart. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil speculates about what this "special award" might be that Nicole Kidman is set to present this evening. [Gold Derby]

•  David Poland iphones it in fromthe Indie Spirits. [The Hot Blog]

•  Last minute snarkiness from The Reeler.  But at least it's a shade of different. [Little Gold Men]

•  Nathaniel Rogers writes up the Best Actress race one last time. [The Film Experience]

•  A.O. Scott finalizes the year by poo-pooing the Oscars, admits he wishies the strike had shut down the show.  No rhyme or reason, just Gray Lady distaste and snobbery. [New York Times]

There's been plenty of discussion throughout the years of the Independent Spirit Awards as something of a "death kiss" for Oscar hopefuls.  Bill Murray's triump for Best Actor in "Lost in Translation" led to a Sean Penn/"Mystic River" victory lap the next night.  The "Sideways" crew dominated at the Spirits, but only took down the Best Adapted Screenplay trophy at the Oscars.

Just last year, "Litle Miss Sunshine" was the evening's victor and was still on plenty of prediction lists for Oscar's big prize.  Nope.

Another example might be Julianne Moore's victory for for Todd Haynes' "Far From Heaven."  And speaking of Haynes, Cate Blanchett is nominated this year for the director's "I'm Not There."  She is likely to take home the bacon tonight, yet she is heavily favored to win the Oscar as well.  Hm.

Perhaps the biggest indication that there may be something to all of this is 2005's race, which saw a win for Ang Lee's "Brokeback Mountain" at the Spirits.  We all know how that one turned out.  And the only exception to all of this seems to be Charlize Theron's win of both Best Actress statuettes in 2003 for her performance in "Monster."

Anyway, to commemorate this -- um -- "rule," for lack of a better word, Mark Olsen has tossed together a photo gallery of the most apparent examples.  Take a look.

The film in the stickiest situation here is obviously Jason Reitman's "Juno," which is likely to sweep through the show tonight like wildfire.  And yet, just like last year, the film is on a number of prognosticators' lists to take the big prize at the Kodak.

Will the rule hold true?  Time will tell.

There are a couple of stories up this week detailing the correlation between box office and film awards success, starting here at home base with Pamela McClintock's Thursday piece.  The story is a pure numbers crunch, no quoted sources, but it gives the clear indication that, this year specially, the golden guys matter.

Here's how she kicks things off:

There's been an unusually strong awards box office bump this year, with the five best picture contenders combining to gross $97 million domestically since Academy Award nominations were announced Jan. 22.

That's more than double the $44 million pulled in by last year's class during the same frame.

No one expected the uptick to come in at record levels, considering the five noms are specialty films that, outside of Fox Searchlight's runaway hit "Juno," offer gloom-and-doom storylines. Also, two of the films -- Warner Bros.' "Michael Clayton" and Miramax's "No Country for Old Men" -- were well into their runs.

Heading into Oscar weekend, the total combined domestic cume for five best picture noms, which all began as limited releases, through Tuesday was $314.4 million, according to Rentrak. That compares to a combined cume of $287.8 million last year.

Last year, the best picture contenders grossed an average of $8.8 million between the time of the Oscar announcements and the week before the ceremony. In each of the two years prior to that, the top noms grossed an average of $13 million during the same time period.

This year, the average is $19.4 million.

Check out the rest.


Meanwhile, over at USA Today, I spoke with Anthony Breznican for a story concerning the Oscars as a cog in the marketing scheme rather than the victory lap they used to be.  Also quoted are Lionsgate prexy Tom Ortenberg, Awards Daily's Sasha Stone and Box Office Mojo's Brandon Gray.

Here's a look:

Today, every major film studio has specialty departments designed to create offbeat, smart contenders for the awards. They typically are films with modest budgets (usually less than $50 million) and limited promotion — at least initially.

In essence, such films are orchestrated to start off as word-of-mouth favorites among devoted moviegoers. As a result, they can wind up as Academy Award nominees with relatively few people having seen them.

Three films that fit that model are among the five contenders for best picture at the Academy Awards, which air live on Sunday (ABC, 8 p.m. ET/5 PT). They involve a bloodthirsty pioneer oilman (There Will Be Blood), an air-gun-toting killer (No Country for Old Men) and a pregnant teenager (Juno).

The films — up against Michael Clayton and Atonement for best picture — have generated increasing buzz for months. But only Juno is a bona fide blockbuster so far, with a surprising $125.5 million in box-office receipts. The Oscar nominations are likely to spread the windfall.

The rest.

As I told Anthony when we spoke, I have never dug into these sorts of numbers to glean any real pattern or consistency.  It makes my brain hurt.  But it is, regardless, difficult to discredit the role award play in a film's profit.  However, I'm of the mind that Oscar success plays into the home market more fiercely than in the box office run.

A sticker that says "Academy Award Winner" is an enticing addition to a DVD case, and as I told Anthony, all one need do is take a look at, say, the netflix list of most rented movies in the weeks following the race to see films like "Mystic River" and "Crash" dominating the top 10 most rented titles.

In any case, it's a circular conversation and a part of the equation parties much better versed (and indeed, much more affected) will coninute to pick at until the end of days.

•  The local ABC affiliate sits down with Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell to discuss the art of sound mixing and their history with Oscar. [ABC]

•  Steve Chagollan talks to this year's honorary Oscar recipient, art director Richard Boyle. [Variety]

•  Anne Thompson rounds up a few pundit predictions. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Sasha Stone, meanwhile, starts her big ole' compilation chart. [Awards Daily]

•  Jon Stewart speaks!  Bill Carter does the reporting at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Edward Havens handicaps the Oscar race. [Film Jerk]

•  Jeffrey Wells keeps this "Juno" thing going with one guy's assessment of some unquantifiable British sentiment. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Don't think about taking an embed, biatch!  The Oscars get tubed. [YouTube]

•  Michele Norris talks to the two poor souls from Price Waterhouse tasked with counting all 6,000 ballots. [NPR]

•  Pete Hammond hits the nail on the head: it's a year of upsets; why not Oscar, too? [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil tosses around the "actor rule" reagarding Best Picture winners. [Gold Derby]

•  The Gurus o' Gold do not expect "No Country for Old Men" to lose at all on Sunday. [Movie City News]

•  Gurus 2.0 offer up their final guesses as well. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers hearts the fact that love can survive in Hollywood, spotlighting the 34 year marriage of Sissy Spacek and "There Will be Blood" production designer Jack Fisk. [The Film Experience]

•  If you're too cool for school Sunday night and won't be watching the Oscar like the rest of us, let your cell phone do the work. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  David Edelstein humors the reasoning that allows for a "Juno" Best Picture victory. [The Projectionist]

•  Jeffrey Wells is beside himself at such insinuations. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Carr thinks it's all a bunch of hot air and over-analysis. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Yours truly, meanwhile, happens to think it's pretty much a no-brainer at this point...sadly. [In Contention]

•  Sasha Stone advocates for "No Country" one...last...time, posting a full blown sequence from the film to make sure the point is made. [Awards Daily]

•  Jay Fernandez digs into the year's nominated scripts, with a eye toward vibrant characterizations. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil chats it up with sound mixer Kevin O'Connell backstage at the CAS Awards over the weekend. [Gold Derby]

•  Noah Forrest takes a stab at predicting the winners. [Movie City News]

•  Tim Long prolongs (heh) the anti-Oscar, elitest attitude at Vanity Fair. [Little Gold Men]

•  More predictions from T.L. Stanley. [Gold Rush]

•  A separate set from some cruis ship bartenders. [Cinematical]

•  Lou Lumenick predicts it right down the friggin' middle. [New York Post]

Another day another awards show.  I will be at the ACE Awards dinner this evening at the Beverly Hilton and will report back on the festivities later tonight.

The feature film nominees:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):
"The Bourne Ultimatum," Christopher Rouse, A.C.E.
"Into the Wild," Jay Cassidy, A.C.E.
"Michael Clayton," John Gilroy, A.C.E.
"No Country for Old Men," Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood," Dylan Tichenor, A.C.E.

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedic):
"Hairspray," Michael Tronick, A.C.E.
"Juno," Dana E. Glauberman
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," Craig Wood & Steven E. Rivkin, A.C.E.
"Ratatouille," Darren Holmes, A.C.E.
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street," Chris Lebenzon, A.C.E.

Best Edited Documentary:
"Darfur Now," Edgar Burcksen, A.C.E. & Leonard Feinstein
"The Pixar Story," Leslie Iwerks & Stephen Myers, A.C.E.
"Sicko," Geoffrey Richman, Chris Seward & Dan Swietlik

New York Magazine's Vulture blog points us to this intriguing Reuters story above Oscar obsessiveness gone too far.  No such thing, I know, but it seems the head chef of New York's Carlyle hotel has whipped up a five course meal representing each of the year's Best Picture nominees.

No, seriously.  Take a look:

The dinner will begin with roasted parsnip tart, fresh shaved black truffle and perigourdine sauce. It is a creation stemming from what Sakatos described as "Ellen Page's fun and somewhat tarty portrayal of Juno."

Black ink risotto, mushrooms, cuttlefish and blood orange foam make up the "There Will Be Blood" second course.

"The black ink brings to mind the film's oil gushers, with blood orange foam to remind diners of the struggle and, of course, the title," Sakatos explained.

He chose Dover sole for "Michael Clayton" after "George Clooney's morally conflicted lawyer found his 'sole' and ultimately did the right thing," while "No Country for Old Men" is "plenty of manly beef -- and true grits to boot."

A passion fruit creme brulee ends the meal, reflecting the great passions of "Atonement," from "the young lovers' embrace to the little girl's jealously that caused her false accusation and ultimately the final passionate moment of atonement."

Read the rest.

•  The London Film Critics' Circle taps "No Country" year's best.  Will BAFTA follow? [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells takes a solid jab at Paramount Vantage regarding yesterday's milkshake promotion with a hilarious note from Toronto Star critic Peter Howell. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Ryan Adams points us to The New York Times Magazine and its 2008 "Oscar portfolio." [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil previews Sunday's BAFTA Awards. [Gold Derby]

•  Stu Van Airsdale gets some saucy comments from "Counterfeiters" director Stefan Ruzowitsky regarding the Oscar snub of "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days." [Little Gold Men]

•  Jeff Anderson, meanwhile, thinks "The Counterfeiters" has a play at worst film of 2008 so far. [Cinematical]

•  Anne Thompson reacts to the imminent "revamp" of the foreign language committee. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  The new Oscar set reminds Nathaniel Rogers of something interstellar. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine forecasts "The Hottie and the Nottie" for 2009 Oscar glory. [Vulture]

•  David Carr retires to his oxygen chamber to review a silent "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  "Ratatouille" dominates the Annie Awards. [Variety]

Obivously a send-up, but this kind of thing is why Jason Reitman kicks so much ass and, as long as he keeps that golden sense of humor about him, will have a long and fruitful career.  LOVE it (thanks to Gold Derby):

A week or so after David Carr fought off awards season fatigue/boredom by messing around with the initial letters of "No Country for Old Men," Nathaniel Rogers chimes in with anagram fun with the title "Michael Clayton."

There's "All Icy Omen Chat," "Thy Local Cinema," "Mythic Ole Canal" and the title of this entry, "Conceal thy mail."  Boy, we've hit our wall, folks.  But it's fun stuff nonetheless.

What can be done with the remaining two Best Picture contenders at this point?  "No Country" has the NCFOM schtick, "There Will Be Blood" gets the milkshake phenomenon, and now this for "Clayton."  Somebody step up for "Atonement" and "Juno" already.

•  Anne Thompson rounds up a couple of upcoming Oscar events and seminars. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jeffrey Wells is hearing that the Oscar-nominated Iraq documentaries might cancel each other out, paving the way for a "War/Dance" win. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The homoeroticism of "There Will Be Blood" is back -- and with teeth. [Defamer]

•  Sasha Stone points us to the EW cover featuring "Juno" -- "the little movie that did." [Awards Daily]

•  Gina Piccalo covers yesterday's nominees luncheon. [The Envelope]

•  Michael Cieply reports on Sid Ganis' "sweetly diplomatic" speech to luncheon attendees, urging "the importance of keeping Oscar night on track." [New York Times]

•  Diane Garrett covers things in-house. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil ponders the correlation between Vanity Fair covers and future Oscar success. [Gold Derby]

•  Carly Mayberry reports on the antics of George Clooney, affable as always, at yesterday's festivities. [Gold Rush]

•  Another interview with the always entertaining Julian Schnabel lands on the net. [CBS]

•  Patrick Goldstein profiles Mandate Pictures, the unsung backers behind the success of "Juno." [Los Angeles Times]

Actress in a Leading Role  Ellen Page
Directing  Jason Reitman
Best Picture  Lianne Halfon, Mason Novick and Russell Smith, Producers
Writing (Original Screenplay)  Written by Diablo Cody

•  Sasha Stone ponderst he year's PGA competition. [Awards Daily]

•  Anne Thompson comments on the box office success of "Juno," which just flew past $100 million domestic. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jeffrey Wells is more concerned with Campaign '08 than Oscar talk lately.  Fair enough. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Jim Brooks recounts the deserving contnders Oscar has ignored throughout the years. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil responds to the Academy's "Plan B" for the ceremony, should it come to that. [Gold Derby]

•  T.L. Stanley, meanwhile, responds to AMPAS prexy Sid Ganis' first ever video blog.  [Gold Rush]

•  Nathaniel Rogers writes up the documentary shorts. [The Film Experience]

•  David Poland has fun with the alphbetical listing of the year's Best Picture nominees, pointing "Michael Clayton" out as the middle-of-the-road, perhaps utimately consensus contender.  [Movie City News]

•  David Poland is none too pleased with The Hollywood Reporter's handling of that Sean Young thing.  I don't think it's worth this much fuss, but to each his own. [The Hot Blog]

•  Sasha Stone keys us in to yesterday's ballot mailing.  T-minus 19 days of voting and counting. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil wonders if Ruby Dee can repeat her SAG success next month at the Kodak Theatre. [Gold Derby]

•  Michael Ordoña talks to the guys behind "Michael Clayton," George Clooney and Tony Gilroy. [The Envelope]

•  "Juno" becomes the first soundtrack to top the charts since "Dreamgirls." [Extended Play]

•  Andrew O'Hehir talks to "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Salon]

•  Dennis Lim gets the director's ear as well. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Andrew Sarris thinks "Juno" might just beat out the competition in about a month's time. [New York Observer]

•  Lou Lumenick buys in, calls Stu VanAirsdale a "film snob" in the process.  Ouch. [New York Post]

•  Friendly joshing with Woody Harrelson and Javier Bardem. [People]

•  Robert Downey, Jr. wins Male Actor of the Year honors at ShoWest. [Variety]

•  "I Am Legend" and "Spider-Man 3" are among the nominees for this year's Epiphany Awards, honoring family and religious films.  Yes, family and religious films. [Variety]

I'm kind of buried in the guilty pleasures of "National Treasure" on USA at the moment, so I'm forgetting the red carpet coverage of tonight's SAG awards.  But reading through David Carr's coverage at The Carpetbagger, I noticed that he's reporting "The Bourne Ultimatum" as the winner of that shiny new category, Best Performance by a Stunt Ensemble.  Well deserved.  "24" apparently won on the television side of things.

There was also a line from Ellen Page that made me laugh out loud.  In response to the notion that she doesn't take her work home with her, so to speak, she quipped: "I'm not that Daniel Day about it."  Juno lives.  She breathes.  She walks the red carpet.

Taking a break from Oscar blogger bashing yesterday, Patrick Goldtein of the Los Angeles Times pondered the peculiarities of this year's Oscar line-up.  He sees the 2007 as further evidence of a paradigm shift away from the status quo of Hollywood dollars and the continued enbracing of maverick visions.

He starts out like so:

When I took a bleary-eyed glance at the nomination results early yesterday morning, I have to admit that my first reaction was -- is this the Oscars or the Independent Spirit Awards?

Four of the five nominees for best picture are films released by studio specialty divisions, which largely focus on movies with a limited commercial reach. The fifth film, "Michael Clayton," was released by Warner Bros. but financed by Steve Samuels, a real estate developer from Boston who bankrolled the project when no studio would put up the money.

And later, he really digs in:

Most telling of all, the best picture nominees are not films that could have endured the "Survivor"-like experience of receiving notes from today's studio executives, cautious overseers obsessed with establishing character motivation and ensuring that the audience is never confused or particularly challenged. I won't give away any spoilers, but both "No Country for Old Men" and Anderson's' "There Will Be Blood" have striking endings that have confounded or even outraged viewers, but they've remained intact, since when you throw your lot in with these guys, if you're in for a dime, you're in for a dollar.

One can only imagine what would've happened to any of these nominees if they'd been forced to run the gauntlet of research screenings, with "No Country's" unflinching lack of emotion, "There Will Be Blood's" baldly unsympathetic lead character, "Atonement's" fractured flashback-and-forward narrative, "Michael Clayton's" elusive storytelling and "Juno's" casual acceptance of a 16-year-old girl's unplanned pregnancy. Although distributed by Fox Searchlight, "Juno" was independently financed by Mandate Pictures, which specializes in low-budget art-house and horror movies. If the film had been at a major studio it wouldn't be a stretch to hear a studio executive saying to Diablo Cody, who wrote the script, "I really love the cool slang and the funny phone, but does Juno really have to be pregnant?"

Read the rest.

1979-2008

•  Phil Gallo rounds up a list of 2008 Oscar factoids here at homebase. [Variety]

•  Calling from Rome regarding his Best Director nomiantion, Julian Schnabel has this bit of dry excitement for Paula Schwartz: "They're going to buy me a bottle of champagne and we're going to act like we're excited." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Another rudimentary list of nominee reactions, but with some fresh faces nonetheless: Scott Rudin and Andrzej Wajda among them. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers, thinking outside the box as always, ponders the Top 10 Oscar Talking Points of yesterday's goings on. [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine asks the brothers Coen about Oscar nominee "Roderick Jaynes." [Vulture]

•  Peter Martin thinks "There Will Be Blood" is one Oscar nomination short of its destiny, thank you very much. [Cinematical]

•  Boy, T.L. Stanley really hates "Juno." [Gold Rush]

•  No, she really hates "Juno." [Gold Rush]

•  Ramin Satoodeh, meanwhile, chalks Jason Reitman's Best Director nomination for "Juno" up as the morning's most surprising nominee. [The Gold Digger]

•  Pete Hammond has his own idea of the surprises, and calls the Best Makeup showing for "Norbit" his "favorite nom of the day."  Here's hoping Pete's winning sense of humor is shinging through there. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil pours over the various guild misteps this season, where Oscar prognostication is concerned. [Gold Derby]

•  Anthony Breznican and Susan Wloszczyna dig into "the long strange Oscar season" of 2007. [USA Today]

•  And Gary Strauss rounds up Oscar's snubs. [USA Today]

•  Predictions abound this final pre-nom morning, as Nathaniel Rogers rounds up his final Oscar predictions. [The Film Experience]

•  Daniel Kenealy does the same. [Awards Daily]

•  Gerard Kennedy gives a last look at the outstanding tech races. [In Contention]

•  Robert Welkos digs into the stats to read oscar's crystal ball. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil has long lists galore. [Gold Derby]

•  And Jeffrey Wells wants it all to be over...with a little "Atonement" plea to boot. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The Art Directors get an emcee in the form of Harry Shearer. [Variety]

•  "Ratatouille" and "Once" are tops with the Golden Tomatoes [Associated Press via Variety]

•  Ben Sisario profiles Kimya Dawson, the artist behind the whimsical lyrical stylings of the "Juno" soundtrack. [New York Times]

"Juno" scribe Diablo Cody is back with a new column at Entertainment Weekly.  This time, it's a riff on her magazine's illustration of the author as a lead-in to screen heroines too cool to care about their looks.  Here's a peek:

Of course, by caring about this unflattering likeness, I'm bolstering the stereotype that women are vain, neurotic creatures. This is conflicting; as a writer, I hope to craft female characters who are tough, gutsy, and cocksure. Women with brio and spunk. In other words, women who probably wouldn't care if their column illustration resembled Victorian corpse portraiture. And yet, some of the strongest ladies in the pop-cult canon have endeared themselves to us because of their vulnerability and, yes, even their vanity. Remember when Angela on My So-Called Life spent an entire episode stressing about a zit even as her relationship with Sharon Cherski imploded? Angela wasn't shallow — hell, she wore more flannel than Dinosaur Jr. — but she knew that a clogged sebaceous gland can be even more traumatic than a girly meltdown.

In fact, there are plenty of killer onscreen heroines who weren't too cool to care about their hair, complexion, or wardrobe. I mean, why not reapply the ol' lip gloss before busting that villain or solving that theorem? Since when is a dab of beeswax a concession to the patriarchy?

There's more at EW.  She goes on to list her favorites in the realm of "heroine chic" (har).  Everyone from Warrant Officer Ellen Ripley in "Alien" to "Uncle" Jesse Katsopolis of "Full House" makes an appearance.  Check it out!

•  An attempt at making sense of it all, post-guilds and with a week to go. [In Contention]

•  Is "I drink your milshake" an anachronism in "There Will Be Blood?"  Apparently not. Thanks haeavens we have Jeffrey Wells on the case of stuff like this.  What would we do otherwise? [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Texas State University gets in ona ll that Cormac McCarthy love. [Assciated Press via Hollywood Reporter]

•  Pete Hammond reports that an unusual amount of Academy members waited until the last minute to submit ballots this year...and that Joe Wright gets naked when he wins an award. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil gets into the campaign shift for "Juno" star Ellen Page, away from the cheeky and toward the serious. [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers responds to yesterday's PGA announcement. [The Film Experience]

•  T.L. Stanley does the same. [Gold Rush]

•  David Carr writes up a requiem for the Golden Globes ceremony at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Earlier, he partners up with Michael Cieply for a full rundown of the tragedy. [New York Times]

•  You can find the Oscar season anywhere, folks.  Anywhere.  Well, if you're obssessed and/or look hard enough. [Vulture]

•  There's hope for relapsing fashionistas yet! [USA Today]

I was all set to tap out an Oscarweb Round-up, but the usual suspects (linked in the right sidebar) have reactions up all over the place.  Suffice it to say, the mood out there is one of..."eh."  But there's plenty to read at The Envelope, Awards Daily, The Carpetbagger and, as always, Award Central.

But scouring the net this morning for anything not Globe-related, I came across this little item at The Film Experience.  The consensus for some time in the Best Actress category has been that either Ellen Page ("Juno"), Julie Christie ("Away from Her") or Marion Cotillard ("La Vie en Rose") is going to win the Oscar.  The latter two ladies took down wins last night, adding wind to their sails.  But whichever of these dames takes the win, according to Nathaniel Rogers, it'll be a historic moment for the category.

Rogers writes:

Julie Christie enchanted Oscar voters at that dazzling sunshine girl in 1965's Darling and should "Away From Her" bring her second win, it'll mark the longest time between acting wins for anyone. The current record holder is Helen Hayes who won Best Actress for "The Sin of Madelon Claudet" (1931) and then again in the supporting category for "Airport" (1970). Most dual winners actually win their second within a decade of their first.

If Marion Cotillard wins [for "La Vie en Rose"] it'll mark only the second time a foreign language performance has won Best Actress. And that happened even longer ago then Julie Christie's first triumph. The one and only recipient: Sophia Loren for "Two Women" (1961).

If Ellen Page wins for "Juno," she'll become the youngest Best Actress winner ever. She turns 21 three days before the Oscars which will be held (we think [gulp]) on February 24th. That makes her the youngest. Marlee Matlin ("Children of a Lesser God," 1986) currently holds the record for youngest lead actress win. She was also 21 but 2/3rds of the way to her 22nd birthday.

Very interesting indeed.  With Page missing last night, and with "Juno" not exactly tearing up the guild circuit (though a PGA nod is likely today), most are thinking the contest is between Christie and Cotillard, with the former getting the benefit of the prognostication doubt given that she is a screen icon.  We'll see how it pans out, but it's nice to know -- barring any out of the blue revelations in the Best Actress category -- that history will probably be made on Oscar night this year.

This is a guild that nominates 15 films in three categories, so it's a little difficult to judge how they may or may not translate in the actual Art Directio category (beyond knowing that contemporary films are almost always left out of the mix).  But it is certainly beneficial to see which films have clear insustry support.

The usual suspects are here: "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood."  No "Juno" or "Into the Wild," but neither film showcases this craft.  However, with that in mind, "The Bourne Ultimatum" continues a stealthy trek through the guild precursor circuit by showing up in the contemporary category today.

"Atonement" gets its first guild mentions since the ASC mention at the beginning of the week (and what a long week it must have seemed to the Focus camp in that regard).  "American Gangster" also found its first industry love since two SAG nominations last month.

Finally, it has to be encouraging for Miramax to have "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" surprisingly pop up in the contemporary field.  As it continues to make a case for a Best Picture nomination, these guild citations only fuel the cause.

Here are the nominees:

PERIOD FILM:

"American Gangster" (Arthur Max)
"Atonement" (Sarah Greenwood)
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Dante Ferretti)
"There Will Be Blood" (Jack Fisk)

FANTASY FILM:

"The Golden Compass" (Dennis Gassner)
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (Stuart Craig)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Rick Heinrichs)
"Ratatouille" (Harley Jessup)
"300" (James Bissell)

CONTEMPORARY FILM:

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Peter Wenham)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Michel Eric and Laurent Ott)
"The Kite Runner" (Carlos Conti)
"Michael Clayton" (Kevin Thompson)
"No Country for Old Men" (Jess Gonchor)

"Into the Wild," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" were among the nominees of today's American Cinema Editor awards, likely solidifying the final line-up for Best Picture.  Hopefuls like "Atonement" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" were ignored by the guild, the former having gone 1/5 with the industry's guild announcements over the last few weeks.

Here are the ACE's nominees:


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Christopher Rouse)
"Into the Wild" (Jay Cassidy)
"Michael Clayton" (John Gilroy)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roderick Jaynes)
"There Will Be Blood" (Dylan Tichenor)


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

"Hairspray" (Michael Tronick)
"Juno" (Dana E. Glauberman)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End" (Craig Wood & Stephen E. Rivkin)
"Ratatouille" (Darren Holmes)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Chris Lebenzon)

•  Alexandra Peers has the scoop on Julian Schnabel's latest art exhibit, "Navigations," amidst critical and industry kudos for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [Vulture]

•  Dave Karger sits down with "In the Valley of Elah" and "No Country for Old Men" star Tommy Lee Jones. [Entertainment Weekly]

•  NBC is set to loose a bundle due to cancellation of the Golden Globes telecast. [Wall Street Journal]

•  The soundtrack to "Juno" lands at #8 on the Billboard charts. ("Sonic Youth sucks.  It's just noise.") [Extended Play]

•  The People's Choice Awards weren't much of a hit with the "people." [Variety]

•  "No Country" wins yet another Best Picture award, this time from the Online Film Critics Society. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells is four-square behind "I drink your milkshake" as a marketing must for Paramount Vantage's "There Will Be Blood" Oscar campaign. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland talks to "Sweeney Todd" helmer Tim Burton. [The Hot Blog]

•  Nathaniel Rogers launches a new podcast series, beginning with the heart-stopping Marisa Tomei.  (Hey, she stops my heart.) [The Film Experience]

•  Oh yeah...Gurus 2.0. [Movie City News]

I almost missed this piece from the bossman, Peter Bart, about the record number of screeners studios rushed to voters' doorsteps this year.  Bart ruminates on a few second-viewing questions that arised for him, and it might give you a little peek into the brain of an Academy member.  He dings a couple of titles, like "Inot the Wild," "No Country for Old Men" and "Juno," but still makes it a point of expressing fondness for them.

He kicks it off like so:

Movie studios seem to enjoy putting out mixed messages.

Every year they complain about the evils of screeners, yet keep dispatching them in ever greater quantity. If those nasty discs truly provide grist for piracy and inadequately represent the aesthetic quality of their films, why was there a record deluge this year (I personally received roughly 100)? And why were some screeners sent out even before the theatrical release of the films?

To be sure, the legalistic admonitions at the front of every screener are longer this year (and multilingual), as though the lawyers think anyone reads their dire warnings. At least the Academy has given up on those clunky vidplayers dispatched to voters two years ago that supposedly were going to solve the piracy issue.

And in closing...

Most of our "serious" filmmakers this year seemed to reside in a very dark place. Blood was gushing in "Sweeney Todd" like oil in "There Will Be Blood" and there were moments in this year's crop of war films that could have blended into the "torture porn" genre of "Hostel, Part II." On one level, I understand all this anger, but wonder whether these filmmakers are trapped in tortuous times or trapped within their own tortured egos.

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

•  If you haven't heard by now, the actors are throwing a wrench into the works. [Variety]

•  Elvis Mitchell, Glenn Kenny, Harry Knowles et al. discuss the ending of "No Country for Old Men." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  John Horn dissects the Oscar hopes for "Zodiac" in the wake of considerable year-end critical support. [The Envelope]

•  Jeffrey Wells leaps for joy. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Yes, an award for Weblogs.  Believe it. [Bloggies]

•  Stu VanAirsdale live blogs 699 minutes of Paul Thomas Anderson product for the sheer hell of it. [The Reeler]

•  Tom O'Neil and Dave Karger mull the season over.  Lots of these popping up lately.  No one has the answers! [Gold Derby]

•  Nathaniel Rogers starts his year in review with a tease.  No top 10 in sight yet, but wait for it... [The Film Experience]

•  T.L. Stanley seems perturbed at the year in advance Oscar prediction fun.  Key word: fun. [Gold Rush]

•  Ramin Setoodeh pairs off the various Oscar hopefuls with Presidential counterparts.  "Atonement" = Hilary Clinton?  [The Gold Digger]

•  "Juno" is up and "Sweeney Todd" is down, according to New York Magazine. [Vulture]

•  "Atonement" wins the vote for "Best Costume of All Time."  I like curvy women, so on Keira, I gotta say...those green threads seemed a tad wasted. [The Daily Telegraph]

Happy New Year from Catalina!

•  Yours truly rolls out the year's most anticipated films. [In Contention]

•  In the wake of box office success for Jason Reitman's "Juno," Tom O'Neil wonders if Ellen Page has become the new frontrunner for Best Actress. [Gold Derby]

•  Speaking of box office and Oscar, Lou Lumenick gives the numbers a once over. [New York Post]

•  Jeffrey Wells seems happy to find that someone is "vaguely irritated" by "Starting Out in the Evening," a film I have to say I never quite responded to myself. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  The over-deification of "No Country for Old Men" continues. [Awards Daily]