I have to say, kudos to Greg Ellwood and Sheigh Crabtree for doing such a great job in rounding up a wide array of voices for this year's Buzzmeter at The Envelope.  I think the collective has been more accurate than other such experiments this season, and now, the final tally has been revealed.

There aren't many surprises to be had on the whole, but you'll be interested to find some singular shockers.  Like Tom O'Neil's prediction that George Clooney will trump Daniel Day-Lewis in the Best Actor rave, for instance.  Creative Screenwriting's Jeff Goldsmith went a little crazy in the animated feature race, picking "Persepolis" over "Ratatouille," while local journo Sam Rubin goes REALLY wild, taking Jason Reitman for a stunner in Best Director.

Check it all out here.

Another day another awards show.  I will be at the ACE Awards dinner this evening at the Beverly Hilton and will report back on the festivities later tonight.

The feature film nominees:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):
"The Bourne Ultimatum," Christopher Rouse, A.C.E.
"Into the Wild," Jay Cassidy, A.C.E.
"Michael Clayton," John Gilroy, A.C.E.
"No Country for Old Men," Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood," Dylan Tichenor, A.C.E.

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedic):
"Hairspray," Michael Tronick, A.C.E.
"Juno," Dana E. Glauberman
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," Craig Wood & Steven E. Rivkin, A.C.E.
"Ratatouille," Darren Holmes, A.C.E.
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street," Chris Lebenzon, A.C.E.

Best Edited Documentary:
"Darfur Now," Edgar Burcksen, A.C.E. & Leonard Feinstein
"The Pixar Story," Leslie Iwerks & Stephen Myers, A.C.E.
"Sicko," Geoffrey Richman, Chris Seward & Dan Swietlik

Stealing this from Anne's blog.  It isn't the freshest comparison in the world, but hey, it's Oscar related:

Animated Feature Film  Brad Bird
Music (Score)  Michael Giacchino
Sound Editing  Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
Sound Mixing  Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
Writing (Original Screenplay)  Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird

(This interview was set to go up yesterday afternoon; then the news of Heath Ledger's untimely death hit and it just didn't seem like the time.  I'm running it now in its entirety, and in the hopes that we can all move back into the normal activities of this blog.  It is, of course, with a heavy heart that we do so.)

With all the Oscar reactions being bandied about today, it seems you can go to any of a dozen sites and see similar comments coming from Amy Ryan, Marion Cotillard, Saoirse Ronan, etc.  Poor folks, I’m sure they’re getting tired of rattling off the same responses over and over.  Then again, they’re Oscar nominees now.  It would probably take a lot to push them off of cloud nine at this point.

My instinct this morning, however, wasn’t to catch up with the 20 individuals cited in the acting categories, but instead, to call up Greg P. Russell, who received his 12th – yes, 12th – Oscar nomination this year in the Best Sound Mixing category for “Transformers.”

Russell ended an 12-year partnership with fellow mixer Kevin O’Connell in 2007.  “Transformers” stands as the duo’s final collaboration.  But Oscar gold, as you have no doubt heard by now, has remained elusive for these two respected vets.  O’Connell’s 20th nomination today stands as the most nods without a win, while Russell’s 12th bid isn’t too far behind.

Calling from Sony Studios in Culver City, where he has been working on the mix for Paul Weiland’s upcoming “Made of Honor,” Russell told me that he was greeted with a massive bouquet of balloons from his wife and daughter.  Such an elaborate arrangement has become something of a tradition, given that this year’s announcement was certainly not the mixer’s first bar-be-cue.  But this time, there was something slightly different about the bouquet.

“It's a huge arrangement,” Russell said, “upwards of 15 feet tall.  And this year, it's all gold.  I just called them and said ‘I hope that translates!’”

The prospect of finally bringing home that first win is extra special to Russell this time around because of the fitting denouement it would be to his collaboration with O’Connell.  In fact, it was his co-nominee who called Russell this morning with the news of their nomination after Russell ran into troubles logging on to the internet to see for himself.

“Being a sound guy, I don’t think there’s any better sound than the phone ringing on a morning like this,” Russell said.  “Kevin and I have had such an extraordinary run.  It would be a poignant way to finish out our tenure together.”

I took a moment to get Russell’s thoughts on his fellow nominated mixers, and right off the top, he said that the field of contenders is a very satisfactory one full of talented and deserving individuals.  The only drag, he said, was that he hasn’t been able to see one of the nominees: “The Bourne Ultimatum.”

“You know, I saw the first two, but my wife never saw ‘The Bourne Supremacy,’” he said.  “Every time we’d pull out screeners, she would say ‘wait, I haven’t seen the second one!’  All I can tell you is I know Scott Milan and I love his work.  His signature is one of distinction and attention to detail.  Both of the other films in the trilogy sounded fantastic and were worthy of the possibility of a nomination, and clearly this one was, too.”

On “3:10 to Yuma,” mixed by a crew headed up by five-time nominee Paul Massey:

“I liked that movie a lot.  I felt like the sound was truly a character within the film.  It was a very clean-sounding, articulate sound job, well-crafted and well-mixed.”

On finding himself in the company of 12-time nominee Randy Thom, who racked up nominations 13 and 14 for Brad Bird’s “Ratatouille” this morning:

“I love what Randy does with these Pixar films,” he said.  “They’re just so unique and clever.  It’s a well-deserved representation of sound editing and sound mixing.  And Michael Semanick was on board with that.  He just blows me away.  The quality of his films and his versatility, this year on ‘Sweeney Todd’ and ‘There Will be Blood,’ it just always impresses me.”

And finally, on what has been considered one of the most creatively mixed films of the year – “No Country for Old Men”:

“I thought it was very interesting and that things weren’t competing; you could really feel the sense of isolation with the lack of music driving through the scenes.  People were talking about this sound job early on and there was a buzz about it in the sound community based on the bold choices being made.”

Russell’s biggest sigh of relief, he joked, was that there wasn’t a musical in the mix (so to speak) this year.  He and O’Connell have certainly had their battles with musicals, having lost in the past to “Chicago,” “Ray” and, just last year, “Dreamgirls.”  Nonetheless, the exclusion of “Hairspray” and “Sweeney Todd” from this year’s list certainly caught Russell off guard.

“I have to say, there were surprises,” he said.  “But I really like the playing field.  They’re first-rate sound jobs across the board.”

The only specter lingering over Russell’s hopeful date with Oscar destiny is the prospect of a win without a telecast.  The writers’ guild strike has left plans for this year’s ceremony up in the air without any real indication of what to expect.  Producer Gil Cates continues to assure the media and fans that a show of some sort will happen, but real answers have been few and far between.  Win, lose or draw, however, Russell would rather see the winners of this year’s Academy Awards given their day in the sun than watch the event wither into film awards obscurity like this year's Golden Globes announcement.

“I’m really hoping they work out whatever deal they need to present a show,” Russell said.  “This is the pinnacle in entertainment.  After the fiasco of the Golden Globes, I think people are really looking forward to the satisfaction.  And, I mean, come on – it’s the 80th Oscars.  The 80th Oscars.  There has to be a show.”

This is a guild that nominates 15 films in three categories, so it's a little difficult to judge how they may or may not translate in the actual Art Directio category (beyond knowing that contemporary films are almost always left out of the mix).  But it is certainly beneficial to see which films have clear insustry support.

The usual suspects are here: "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood."  No "Juno" or "Into the Wild," but neither film showcases this craft.  However, with that in mind, "The Bourne Ultimatum" continues a stealthy trek through the guild precursor circuit by showing up in the contemporary category today.

"Atonement" gets its first guild mentions since the ASC mention at the beginning of the week (and what a long week it must have seemed to the Focus camp in that regard).  "American Gangster" also found its first industry love since two SAG nominations last month.

Finally, it has to be encouraging for Miramax to have "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" surprisingly pop up in the contemporary field.  As it continues to make a case for a Best Picture nomination, these guild citations only fuel the cause.

Here are the nominees:

PERIOD FILM:

"American Gangster" (Arthur Max)
"Atonement" (Sarah Greenwood)
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Dante Ferretti)
"There Will Be Blood" (Jack Fisk)

FANTASY FILM:

"The Golden Compass" (Dennis Gassner)
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (Stuart Craig)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Rick Heinrichs)
"Ratatouille" (Harley Jessup)
"300" (James Bissell)

CONTEMPORARY FILM:

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Peter Wenham)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Michel Eric and Laurent Ott)
"The Kite Runner" (Carlos Conti)
"Michael Clayton" (Kevin Thompson)
"No Country for Old Men" (Jess Gonchor)

"Into the Wild," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" were among the nominees of today's American Cinema Editor awards, likely solidifying the final line-up for Best Picture.  Hopefuls like "Atonement" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" were ignored by the guild, the former having gone 1/5 with the industry's guild announcements over the last few weeks.

Here are the ACE's nominees:


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Christopher Rouse)
"Into the Wild" (Jay Cassidy)
"Michael Clayton" (John Gilroy)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roderick Jaynes)
"There Will Be Blood" (Dylan Tichenor)


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

"Hairspray" (Michael Tronick)
"Juno" (Dana E. Glauberman)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End" (Craig Wood & Stephen E. Rivkin)
"Ratatouille" (Darren Holmes)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Chris Lebenzon)

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz......

"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Knocked Up"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"
"There Will Be Blood" 

Variety has the story.

Variety has the story.  The 15 films eligible for January's bake-off are:

"Beowulf"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"Evan Almighty"
"The Golden Compass"
"Harry Potter And The Order Of The Phoenix"
"I Am Legend"
"Live Free Or Die Hard"
"National Treasure: Book Of Secrets"
"Pirates Of The Caribbean: At World's End"
"Ratatouille"
"Spider-Man 3"
"Sunshine"
"300"
"Transformers" 
"The Water Horse"

I have to say, I'm somewhat surprised that "Sweeney Todd" didn't at least make this initial list of 15.

Anyway, I've been getting a weird feeling lately that "The Water Horse" could pop up and surprise as the third nominee in this category.  Everyone pretty much concedes that "Transformers" is in (and likely the eventual winner), while some think sequel fatigue could hurt "Pirates" or "Spider-Man 3."  But surely one of those will get in, right?

I'm thinking the third might come down to "The Golden Compass," "Live free or Die Hard" or "The Water Horse," judging from the branch's typicalities.  Though "300" slipping in certainly wouldn't surprise.

Hey, maybe those seven will be next week's bake-off finalists.

•  Globe reactions all over the place, starting with Anne Thompson. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  David Carr chimes in with ruminations per category. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Brian Kinsley gives some knee-jerk thoughts. [In Contention]

•  Sasha Stone throws in her two cents. [Awards Daily]

•  Scott Feinberg tosses down the gauntlet, seems to take it all quite personally. [And the Winner Is...]

•  T.L. Stanley says the HFPA went with their typical M.O., sticking with "safe star power" and shunned risky efforts for the most part. [Gold Rush]

•  Lou Lumenick live-blogged the proceedings. [New York Post]

•  Stephen Galloway talks foreign contenders. [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  Nathaniel Rogers bemoans the snubbed. [The Film Experience]

•  Anthony Breznican talks to "Atonement" director Joe Wright and "Ratatouille" writer/director Brad Bird in a nice summary piece. [USA Today]

•  And David Poland would like to take credit for a number of the nominations due to his "Lunch with David" interview segments, thank you very much. [The Hot Blog]

•  Casey Affleck, Marion Cotillard, James McAvoy and Ellen Page to receive Santa Barbara's Virtuoso Award. [Variety]

•  The Features department turns its "Eye" toward the animation contenders. [Variety]

•  Colleen Atwood's march to an Oscar nod begins with the specifics of Pirelli's package. [E!]

•  Jeffrey Wells gets into why "Charlie Wilson's War" might have seemed a bit...neutered. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  John Horn and Chris Lee talk "I Am Legend" with Best Actor hopeful Will Smith. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Finally, Poland writes over 1,500 words on Scott Foundas' Oscar blogger meltdown earlier in the week, with nary a thesis in sight. [The Hot Blog]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

More of these!

The Washington, D.C. critics voted today, giving their Best Picture honors to "No Country for Old Men."  So in one day, it's the Coens vs. P.T.A across four awards-giving bodies.  INTERESTING.

Here's the full list of D.C. winners

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Best Ensemble: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Breakthrough Performance: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Foreign Language Film: "The Diving Bell and The Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Sicko"
Best Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd:The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

So that's 3 for 4 for Amy Ryan today.  I didn't see that coming, I have to say.  Aaron Sorkin's win for "Charlie Wilson's War" is a bit out of left field, given that "No Country for Old Men" racked up three other wins (including a second score for ensemble acting).

No precursor love so far for "Atonement" and "American Gangster."

The Boston Society of Film Critics voted on their list of winners this afternoon.  Beginning what is likely to be a critics' group stampede, the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" won Best Picture of the year.  It was one of two wins for the film.  Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" won three, including Best Director.

Frank Langella picked up some needed steam as the group's Best Actor choice.  Every lead actor winner from the group has gone on to an Oscar nomination since 2000's choice of Colin Farrell in "Tigerland" (unless you count Brian Cox for "L.I.E." in 2001, though he tied with Denzel Washington in "Training Day."

Marion Cotillard grabbed her first significant lead actress win of the season.  The last winner in that category to miss with Oscar was Scarlett Johansson for Sofia Coppola's "Lost in Translation" four years ago.

Ultimately this isn't a necessarily great predictive precursor across the board unless a consensus has formed (like with last year's lead races).  They're Best Picture winners over the last couple of years have gone on to notices at the Academy, but there was also a stretch where "Trainspotting," "Out of Sight," "Almost Famous" and "Mulholland Dr." took down the big win.  None of them managed Best Picture nominations with the Academy.

Basically...perspective is key.  Nothing will truly be of consequence until the guilds start to speak up.  But this is no doubt the beginning of an impressive run of precursor awards for the Coen brothers film.

Variety has a BSFC write-up.  Stay tuned later today for the LAFCA announcement.

BSFC Winners:

Best Picture: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Julian Schnabel, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Actor: Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Best Actress: Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Screenplay: "Ratatouille"
Best Cinematography: Janusz Kaminski, "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Crazy Love"
Best Foereign-Language Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best New Filmmaker: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Ensemble Cast: "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"

Members of the Broadcast Film Critics Association have to send off our ballots today for this year's nomiantions, which will be announced Tuesday.  I finished mine up earlier in the week, but already I'm kicking myself for forgetting a certain performance in my acting picks.  I wonder how common that is, not only with critics groups, but with the Academy.  Anyway, Marisa Tomei will be announcing the list of nominations on Tuesday.  VH1 will carry the announcement live at 8:30 a.m. e.s.t.

Judging by BFCA scores on the Association's official website, one would expect "The Bourne Ultimatum," "Juno," "Sicko," "No Country for Old Men" and "Ratatouille" to be the five nominees for Best Picture -- but things never work out like that.  I'd bank on one, maybe two of those getting in, but I probably shouldn't prognosticate for a group that includes me in the membership, so I'll leave it at that.

The BFCA tends to be one of the more accurate groups for guessing the eventual Oscar lineup.  They were also the first major precursor to give "The Departed" the win for Best Picture last year.

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

The Annie nominations landed today.  Variety has the story.

"Ratatouille," of course, leads the pack with 13 nominations.  Can anything stop it from winning the Oscar for Best Animated Feature Film?

The nominees for Best Animated Film were "Bee Movie," "Persepolis," Ratatouille," "The Simpsons Movie" and "Surf's Up."  Take away "Bee Movie" and "Surf's Up," and I think you're looking at Oscar's final three.

"Beowulf," which a number of people were hoping would land a berth with the Academy, landed a single nomination with the Annies: Best Production Design.  I guess they weren't too keen on "performance capture" as a brand of animation.

Personally, I was stoked to see, further down the list, that "Ren & Stimpy" creator John Kricfaulski was singled out as a Winsor McCay Award winner for career contribution.  Joy!

•  Michael Cieply on the "ghettoized" Animated Feature category and the Best Picture hopes of "Ratatouille." [New York Times]

•  David Carr responds, then gets into Manohla Dargis' review of "The Savages." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Tom O'Neil calls New York's Gotham Awards a "fiasco." [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells is a fan of the new trailer for "There Will Be Blood," which left another audience in stunned silence last night at the DGA. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Brian Kinsley thinks Amy Adams may have won Best Actress when "Enchanted" opened to stellar business and reviews over the holiday weekend. [In Contention]

•  Yours truly isn't as convinced as Martin Grove on Frank Langella and Christopher Plummer. [In Contention]

•  Ramin Satoodeh recaps the Gotham Awards. [The Gold Digger]

•  After nearly a month's absence from his New York Magazine blog, David Edelstein finally makes a post -- this one's about polarized reviews of "I'm Not There." [The Projectionist]

•  In the wake of "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short of expectations, more people come out of the woodwork to proclaim they "saw this coming." [indieWIRE]

•  Ryan C. Adams digs into the first UK reviews of "The Golden Compass." [Awards Daily]

I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.

For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).

If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.

Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists.  A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc.  The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives.  One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter.  They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films.  But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.

I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings.  First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans.  The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.

Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night."  Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.

The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire."  The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."

31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.

Now, let's get to the consensus chart.  Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:

01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)

Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say.  This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.

Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.

Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.

"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months.  We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.