I have to say, a lot of this morning's poo-pooing of the Oscar ceremony last night is a bit hyperbolic for my taste.  The mixed critical reactions, that is.  I found the night to be rather swift and host Jon Stewart to be at the top of his game.  Sure, there were a number of montages that should have been nixed.  The Best Picture bit that Jack Nicholson presented comes to mind as considerably unnecessary.  But by my watch, the thing was over in less than four hours, something around three and a half...and that's ALWAYS a good thing.  Right?

But let's get into it.  The season has come to a close and the Coen brothers, Scott Rudin and "No Country for Old Men" had their day to shine.  Good for all involved.  It's the most un-Academy win since "The Silence of the Lambs," but that's the way things go sometimes.

There were surprises in store for some.  Such as Marion Cotillard and Tilda Swinton taking the leading and supporting actress trophies, swooping in at the last minute to steal away the thunder of the night's frontrunners.  Personally, I saw this coming, but no one could deny the possibility was there and the situations were ripe for upsets.  Both speeches, by the way, were quite good.  Cotillard was appropriately emotional (as was Diablo Cody, who even choked me up with her teary acceptance).  Swinton, meanwhile, offered that Tilda charm and sass that has become something of a staple this season for the "Michael Clayton" star.

The biggest shocks of the night for me came in the craft races, where "The Bourne Ultimatum" snuck in and grabbed the sound editing and sound mixing statuettes.  The latter category had been primed as a race between "Transformers" and "No Country for Old Men," a considerable media concentration given the nominations tally of Kevin O'Connell and Greg P. Russell.  Sadly, they missed yet again and this was their last shot at getting it together.  They'll go off and, obviously, churn out great work separately, so this isn't the end of days.  But it would have been a nice bow on their partnership, to be sure.

I think the best moments of the evening both involved the film "Once."  The first was Glen Hansard and Marketa Irglova's performance of "Falling Slowy," which elicited a huge cheer from the crowd.  The second was Jon Stewart's insistence that Irglova come back out and be given her moment to offer what ultimately was, let's face it, the bes speech of the evening.  Trigger happy bands really piss me off and someone needs to key them into the fact that some people you just don't scoot away like that.  This was a songwriting DUO, the two STARs of the film, for Pete's sake.  Give them both their moment, please.

The "Enchanted" numbers became a bit tedious after a while, and I couldn't help but wish Eddie Vedder had been there to mix things up.  There are no two ways about it.  The music branch embarassed itself this year.  That's my opinion, in any case.

Apparently the ratings were the lowest ever, which it is foolish to attribute (as some have) to the actual show.  I would say one need only look at the slate of rather unpopular Best Picture nominees to find out why the public at large wasn't very interested.  Personally, I thought it was the best year for movies in a long while.  But just look at the box office rankings to see what people preferred.  It's not in line with Oscar.

Anyway, now we look ahead to next year, right?  RIGHT?  Well, those of us who are nuts, in any case.  Scott Rudin and the Coens will be back, for different projects.  Josh Brolin, Sean Penn, Angelina Jolie, Frank Langella, Russell Crowe, George Clooney -- all heading back to the race.  Returning filmmakers include Ridley Scott, Joe Wright and David Fincher, while Paramount Pictures once again has the glut of product to consider.  And there'll be a "titanic" reunion in store for the nostalgic romantics in the crowd.

But we'll get there.  For now, let's just all enjoy the release of another Oscar year in the rear view mirror.  It's been a blast contributing here at variety this season,a nd I hope you've all enjoyed reading.  We'll weather the fallout in the coming days and call it quits at the end of the week.

Happy Monday.

The short film awards have been handed out as well as yet another acting award, something of a surprise for many: Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton." (Which begs the question -- is this a harbinger of Best Picture?)  Oh, and we finally got to the art direction category.  Check out our commentary here.

You can get your predictions fix in a thousad different quarters this weeekend.  There's David Carr, David Poland, the Gurus o' Gold, Gurus 2.0, the Buzzmeter, hell, even George Clooney has taken a stab.  And don't forget Sasha Ston'e mega-compilation chart, which rounds up a ton of voices for your perusing delight.

In all of that prognosticative commotion, you're bound to see this eyebrow-raising declartion or that, but nothing -- and I mean nothing compares to Tom O'Neil's out-on-a-limb prediction that Clooney will upset a steam-rolling Daniel Day-Lewis in the Best Actor category.  Whaaa?

Yeah, he's going there.  But he isn't doing so sans explanation.  According to O'Neil, who recently posted his reasoning at Gold Derby, Hollywood's man-crush on Clooney might just win out in the end.  He also focuses on the Reel Geezers, who were somewhat dismissive of Day-Lewis and "There Will Be Blood," but made sweet, sweet voting love to Clooney and "Michael Clayton."

Take a look:

The reason that the shockeroos occur is because Hollywooders are a bull-headed, contrary-minded lot and often they don't tip their cards. They also don't like to admit that they're going against the pack — everybody's got to be a team player, after all — but, alone at home where no one is looking and with sly smirks on their faces, they fool Oscarwatchers now and then by checking off their ballots for Marcia Gay Harden or Juliette Binoche.

And read the rest!

By the way, there's at least one more random prediction in the major categories out there: Liz Smith of the New York Post, who declares Best Actress contender Laura Linney the ultimate victor.  Woah.

There are a couple of stories up this week detailing the correlation between box office and film awards success, starting here at home base with Pamela McClintock's Thursday piece.  The story is a pure numbers crunch, no quoted sources, but it gives the clear indication that, this year specially, the golden guys matter.

Here's how she kicks things off:

There's been an unusually strong awards box office bump this year, with the five best picture contenders combining to gross $97 million domestically since Academy Award nominations were announced Jan. 22.

That's more than double the $44 million pulled in by last year's class during the same frame.

No one expected the uptick to come in at record levels, considering the five noms are specialty films that, outside of Fox Searchlight's runaway hit "Juno," offer gloom-and-doom storylines. Also, two of the films -- Warner Bros.' "Michael Clayton" and Miramax's "No Country for Old Men" -- were well into their runs.

Heading into Oscar weekend, the total combined domestic cume for five best picture noms, which all began as limited releases, through Tuesday was $314.4 million, according to Rentrak. That compares to a combined cume of $287.8 million last year.

Last year, the best picture contenders grossed an average of $8.8 million between the time of the Oscar announcements and the week before the ceremony. In each of the two years prior to that, the top noms grossed an average of $13 million during the same time period.

This year, the average is $19.4 million.

Check out the rest.


Meanwhile, over at USA Today, I spoke with Anthony Breznican for a story concerning the Oscars as a cog in the marketing scheme rather than the victory lap they used to be.  Also quoted are Lionsgate prexy Tom Ortenberg, Awards Daily's Sasha Stone and Box Office Mojo's Brandon Gray.

Here's a look:

Today, every major film studio has specialty departments designed to create offbeat, smart contenders for the awards. They typically are films with modest budgets (usually less than $50 million) and limited promotion — at least initially.

In essence, such films are orchestrated to start off as word-of-mouth favorites among devoted moviegoers. As a result, they can wind up as Academy Award nominees with relatively few people having seen them.

Three films that fit that model are among the five contenders for best picture at the Academy Awards, which air live on Sunday (ABC, 8 p.m. ET/5 PT). They involve a bloodthirsty pioneer oilman (There Will Be Blood), an air-gun-toting killer (No Country for Old Men) and a pregnant teenager (Juno).

The films — up against Michael Clayton and Atonement for best picture — have generated increasing buzz for months. But only Juno is a bona fide blockbuster so far, with a surprising $125.5 million in box-office receipts. The Oscar nominations are likely to spread the windfall.

The rest.

As I told Anthony when we spoke, I have never dug into these sorts of numbers to glean any real pattern or consistency.  It makes my brain hurt.  But it is, regardless, difficult to discredit the role award play in a film's profit.  However, I'm of the mind that Oscar success plays into the home market more fiercely than in the box office run.

A sticker that says "Academy Award Winner" is an enticing addition to a DVD case, and as I told Anthony, all one need do is take a look at, say, the netflix list of most rented movies in the weeks following the race to see films like "Mystic River" and "Crash" dominating the top 10 most rented titles.

In any case, it's a circular conversation and a part of the equation parties much better versed (and indeed, much more affected) will coninute to pick at until the end of days.

In his annual pre-Oscar column, LA Times film critic Kenneth Turan has called a vote for "Michael Clayton" a vote for Hollywood itself, and "Thoughtful, adult studio films."  He says a vote for "No Country for Old Me," on the other hand, is a vote for the Hollywood art film, and in writing as much, he has me wondering if there might be an upset in the works after all.

Take a look:

A victory for this smart and suspenseful legal thriller would be more than a vote for the only one of the five to be distributed by an actual studio. It would be a vote for a beautifully remodeled classic studio picture, an impressively updated version of the kind of movie "they just don't make anymore."

All the elements of vintage Hollywood filmmaking are present and accounted for in "Michael Clayton," starting with writer-director Tony Gilroy's heightened and dramatic dialogue. Add to that the ability of a peerless cast, including George Clooney, Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton, to animate characters who are at once familiar archetypes and completely individual. Finally, there's Gilroy's instinct for the emotional jugular, a storytelling panache that is almost a lost art all by itself.

Is Turan predicting "Clayton" here?  I'm not sure.  However, I must say, I still don't understand this mentality that Tony Gilroy's film, though expert in its genre, is anything more than passable as a work of "great" cinema.  Perhaps I'm alone, and regardless, the industry has proven itself head over heels for the effort, so maybe...just maybe...Warner Bros. can catch the world off guard tomorrow night and steal one away from Miramax, the Coen brothers, Cynthia Swartz and Scott Rudin.

We'll see.

The truth is, this has been the race since day one following the nominations announcement.  All other comers are mere pretenders in the face of a battle between big studio and modest specialty division.  This is the race.  These are the players.

Check out the rest of Turan's column.

•  Anne Thompson writes up Saturday night's Art Directors Guild Awards. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Rachel Abramowitz checks in with Tom Wilkinson, enjoying his great winter romance with the screen. [The Envelope]

•  David Carr explains the fascination with Oscar. [The Carpetbagger]

•  David Denby hearts the Coen brothers. [New Yorker]

•  Sasha Stone points us to the AP's Oscar week countdown. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil concocts some Best Actor odds, wonders if George Clooney can pull an upset (uh...no). [Gold Derby]

•  Kim Voynar takes a stab at predicting the Oscar outcome... [Cinematical]

•  ...and explains why the Best Foreign Language Film category is something of a, well...a joke this year. [Cinematical]

(A piece regarding last night's ACE awards will be on the way later in the afternoon.  Lots of fun, lots to discuss.  Sorry for the delay.)

Another day another awards show.  I will be at the ACE Awards dinner this evening at the Beverly Hilton and will report back on the festivities later tonight.

The feature film nominees:

Best Edited Feature Film (Dramatic):
"The Bourne Ultimatum," Christopher Rouse, A.C.E.
"Into the Wild," Jay Cassidy, A.C.E.
"Michael Clayton," John Gilroy, A.C.E.
"No Country for Old Men," Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood," Dylan Tichenor, A.C.E.

Best Edited Feature Film (Comedic):
"Hairspray," Michael Tronick, A.C.E.
"Juno," Dana E. Glauberman
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End," Craig Wood & Steven E. Rivkin, A.C.E.
"Ratatouille," Darren Holmes, A.C.E.
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street," Chris Lebenzon, A.C.E.

Best Edited Documentary:
"Darfur Now," Edgar Burcksen, A.C.E. & Leonard Feinstein
"The Pixar Story," Leslie Iwerks & Stephen Myers, A.C.E.
"Sicko," Geoffrey Richman, Chris Seward & Dan Swietlik

New York Magazine's Vulture blog points us to this intriguing Reuters story above Oscar obsessiveness gone too far.  No such thing, I know, but it seems the head chef of New York's Carlyle hotel has whipped up a five course meal representing each of the year's Best Picture nominees.

No, seriously.  Take a look:

The dinner will begin with roasted parsnip tart, fresh shaved black truffle and perigourdine sauce. It is a creation stemming from what Sakatos described as "Ellen Page's fun and somewhat tarty portrayal of Juno."

Black ink risotto, mushrooms, cuttlefish and blood orange foam make up the "There Will Be Blood" second course.

"The black ink brings to mind the film's oil gushers, with blood orange foam to remind diners of the struggle and, of course, the title," Sakatos explained.

He chose Dover sole for "Michael Clayton" after "George Clooney's morally conflicted lawyer found his 'sole' and ultimately did the right thing," while "No Country for Old Men" is "plenty of manly beef -- and true grits to boot."

A passion fruit creme brulee ends the meal, reflecting the great passions of "Atonement," from "the young lovers' embrace to the little girl's jealously that caused her false accusation and ultimately the final passionate moment of atonement."

Read the rest.

•  Jack Nicholson takes considerable umbrage with the length of the Oscar season. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells digs the Oscar nominated short "I Met the Walrus." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone digs into the Best Actress category, considered sewn up in some quarters, an open field in others. [Awards Daily]

•  Yours truly takes another stab at how the race might be shaping up in a few tricky categories. [In Contention]

•  Tom O'Neil has a chat with Pete Hammond, who thinks Tilda Swinton may pull off an upset.  I'm thinking the exact same thing (see link above). [Gold Derby]

•  Roger Ebert -- no shock here -- picks Ellen Page to win Best Actress. [Chicago Sun Times]

•  John Horn and Gina Piccalo take an interesting angle on the Oscar ceremony: the need to scramble a show together, now that the strike is kaput. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin sits down with the chipper-as-always Saoirse Ronan. [USA Today]

David Carr bumped into "Michael Clayton" helmer and scribe Tony Gilroy just before the weekend's WGA Awards and grabbed some quality time to discuss the strike amidst all the kudos brou-ha-ha.  Here's what Gilroy had to say:

“I’m trying to get happy about it,” he said, just before the awards started. “As writers and directors, we have our nose in the tent for real for the first time. There are question marks about how it will be implemented, but there is no one who can argue that the strike was not necessary. We would never be in the position we are without it. Anybody who says the strike was a bad idea is dead wrong.”

And if you missed it earlier, here's a clip of Gilroy talking about the strike quite passionately:

Cinematical points us to the news that AMC Theaters will be showcasing this year's five Best Picture nominees on Feb. 23, starting with "Michael Clayton" at 11:00 in the morning and wrapping up at 9:00 in the evening with "No Country for Old Men."  So if you missed them the first time around, you've got a chance to play catch up!  The screening fee is a rather inexpensive $30 and that'll get you in for the duration.  You also apparently get a large popcorn with that and free refills all day long.  All...day...long.  But make sure you fit in some protein, friends.

A week or so after David Carr fought off awards season fatigue/boredom by messing around with the initial letters of "No Country for Old Men," Nathaniel Rogers chimes in with anagram fun with the title "Michael Clayton."

There's "All Icy Omen Chat," "Thy Local Cinema," "Mythic Ole Canal" and the title of this entry, "Conceal thy mail."  Boy, we've hit our wall, folks.  But it's fun stuff nonetheless.

What can be done with the remaining two Best Picture contenders at this point?  "No Country" has the NCFOM schtick, "There Will Be Blood" gets the milkshake phenomenon, and now this for "Clayton."  Somebody step up for "Atonement" and "Juno" already.

Christy Lemire of the Associated Press wrote up a story last week about the combined "unpopular" nature of this year's Best Picture hopefuls, and I have to say, more than a few points rang a bit false to me.  I get frustrated when journalists attempt to consolidate what an Oscar season is into tiny, bite-size, consumable ideas.  I also become frustrated when such ideas are in fact apparent, but become a little skewed in the reporting.

Let me just indicate a few examples from the piece:

Oscar-nominated films are often small, dark and unintended for mass audiences; they're about art, after all, not commerce. But that's especially true of this year's crop, which has little mainstream buzz and among the lowest box-office totals in recent years.

Not exactly.  The Academy is quite famous for erring on the side of popularity, though the group has slowly shifted its perspective of "populaity" from mass appeal to critical approval, for whatever reason.  The same pressure to give the biggest grossing film of all time the Best Pic laurels over the critical consensus in 1997 has manifested itself in the Academy's apparently conscious decison to recognize films somewhat out of its typically safe wheelhouse due to critical insistence ("No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood").

But even still, the notion that "Oscar-nominated films are often small" and "dark" is a stretch to anyone who has paid attention long enough.  There is a reason films like "Atonement," "The Aviator," "Seabiscuit," etc. are consistently considered Oscar favorites from afar.  The Academy likes broad acceptability, and that doesn't necessarily indicate "small" and "dark" to me.  But, admittedly, things have been slowly changing for at least three or four years now.

Moving on...

Four of the movies nominated last week for best picture — "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" — got the so-called "Oscar bump" that comes from audiences checking them out the following weekend. (The sweeping romance "Atonement" dropped slightly.)

Still, they've only combined to make about $246.3 million domestically. In contrast, "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" already had grossed about $364 million all by itself by the time it won best picture in 2004.

This isn't the best of points because "The Return of the King" was a phenomenon, and the end result of a three-part series destined for Oscar glory in its denouement.  It is just also one example from 3 years ago.  The box office scenario has slowly been fleeing from the vogue scene where Oscar is concerned, witness by last year's relatively modest monetary crop and especially 2005's, which has been considered one of the most unpopular line-ups ever (and, indeed, saw the Oscar telecast's lowest viewership of all time).

I think the better point for a piece like this to make is the steady march to where we are now, rather than trying to posit the class of 2007 as any sort of major bellwether.  But I don't want to go through Lemire's piece with a comb or anything.  It is valuable to note how incredibly low-key the year's contenders are, and even how relatively dark and "70s" the consensus possibility is ("Michael Clayton").

Also, the only demographically "classic" Best Picture nominees from the past few years have been "The Aviator," "Ray" and "Atonement."  Two of them came in 2004 and I don't think one could make similar arguments for the likes of "Crash" or "Munich" or "Babel."  The idea of what an "oscar movie" is seems to be changing at the same time, which is interesting.  In five or six years, a new "sort" will be consistently considered a contender from afar (how about that alliteration?).  And then, the cycle will likely start all over again.

Interesting, no?  Check out Lemire's AP story.

•  Sasha Stone ponderst he year's PGA competition. [Awards Daily]

•  Anne Thompson comments on the box office success of "Juno," which just flew past $100 million domestic. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Jeffrey Wells is more concerned with Campaign '08 than Oscar talk lately.  Fair enough. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Jim Brooks recounts the deserving contnders Oscar has ignored throughout the years. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil responds to the Academy's "Plan B" for the ceremony, should it come to that. [Gold Derby]

•  T.L. Stanley, meanwhile, responds to AMPAS prexy Sid Ganis' first ever video blog.  [Gold Rush]

•  Nathaniel Rogers writes up the documentary shorts. [The Film Experience]

•  David Poland has fun with the alphbetical listing of the year's Best Picture nominees, pointing "Michael Clayton" out as the middle-of-the-road, perhaps utimately consensus contender.  [Movie City News]

•  David Poland is none too pleased with The Hollywood Reporter's handling of that Sean Young thing.  I don't think it's worth this much fuss, but to each his own. [The Hot Blog]

•  Sasha Stone keys us in to yesterday's ballot mailing.  T-minus 19 days of voting and counting. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil wonders if Ruby Dee can repeat her SAG success next month at the Kodak Theatre. [Gold Derby]

•  Michael Ordoña talks to the guys behind "Michael Clayton," George Clooney and Tony Gilroy. [The Envelope]

•  "Juno" becomes the first soundtrack to top the charts since "Dreamgirls." [Extended Play]

•  Andrew O'Hehir talks to "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Salon]

•  Dennis Lim gets the director's ear as well. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Andrew Sarris thinks "Juno" might just beat out the competition in about a month's time. [New York Observer]

•  Lou Lumenick buys in, calls Stu VanAirsdale a "film snob" in the process.  Ouch. [New York Post]

•  Friendly joshing with Woody Harrelson and Javier Bardem. [People]

•  Robert Downey, Jr. wins Male Actor of the Year honors at ShoWest. [Variety]

•  "I Am Legend" and "Spider-Man 3" are among the nominees for this year's Epiphany Awards, honoring family and religious films.  Yes, family and religious films. [Variety]

•  Who has Oscar unceremoniously overlooked throughout the years?  Take the quiz. [CNN]

•  Personally taking a stab at who deserves what. [In Contention]

•  Regarding Ledger, Joe Neumaier joins the press in perpetuating of the unsubstantiated. [New York Post]

•  Manohla Dargis reviews the Oscar-snubbed "4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days." [New York Times]

•  Jeffrey Wells is over the moon for her prose. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone picks up on the swell behind "Michael Clayton."  Trust me folks -- it might be the one to watch. [Awards Daily]

•  Do the Oscars reflect what film-goers want to watch?  A Brit perspective. [Daily Telegraph]

I didn't realize I'd be making two posts about Tony Gilroy in a row, but there we are.  And, ironically enough, I sat down to watch "Michael Clayton" again last night, and in the 12 hours since I ejected it from my DVD player, I've already forgotten James Newton Howard's Oscar nominated score again.  That one will be a head-scratcher for a while, but nevertheless, it's a tight movie that deserved, well, a good portion of its accolades this season.

I stumbled across this here at homebase yesterday.  I think it's the first phase two Oscar ad we've seen:

"The Bourne Ultimatum" and "Michael Clayton" scribe Tony Gilroy is one of the coolest cats I've had the pleasure to speak with this Oscar season.  Always quick with an answer or thought, but never one that reads as unconsidered, he's one of the sharper tools in the shed to say the least.  Artistically, his attention to precision can easily be found in "Clayton," which wrangled 7 Oscar nominations Tuesday, including two for Gilroy himself (for writing and directing).

I stumbled across this clip yesterday of Gilroy in New York talking about the rights of writers and the issues presented in this season's now infamous WGA strike.  Forgive me if it has been posted elsewhere before, but this is the first I've seen of it.  It's great to see him get so fired up about the issue and clearly have an educated understanding of it, rather than toeing the party line, so to speak, without anything substantial to add to the conversation.

Taking a break from Oscar blogger bashing yesterday, Patrick Goldtein of the Los Angeles Times pondered the peculiarities of this year's Oscar line-up.  He sees the 2007 as further evidence of a paradigm shift away from the status quo of Hollywood dollars and the continued enbracing of maverick visions.

He starts out like so:

When I took a bleary-eyed glance at the nomination results early yesterday morning, I have to admit that my first reaction was -- is this the Oscars or the Independent Spirit Awards?

Four of the five nominees for best picture are films released by studio specialty divisions, which largely focus on movies with a limited commercial reach. The fifth film, "Michael Clayton," was released by Warner Bros. but financed by Steve Samuels, a real estate developer from Boston who bankrolled the project when no studio would put up the money.

And later, he really digs in:

Most telling of all, the best picture nominees are not films that could have endured the "Survivor"-like experience of receiving notes from today's studio executives, cautious overseers obsessed with establishing character motivation and ensuring that the audience is never confused or particularly challenged. I won't give away any spoilers, but both "No Country for Old Men" and Anderson's' "There Will Be Blood" have striking endings that have confounded or even outraged viewers, but they've remained intact, since when you throw your lot in with these guys, if you're in for a dime, you're in for a dollar.

One can only imagine what would've happened to any of these nominees if they'd been forced to run the gauntlet of research screenings, with "No Country's" unflinching lack of emotion, "There Will Be Blood's" baldly unsympathetic lead character, "Atonement's" fractured flashback-and-forward narrative, "Michael Clayton's" elusive storytelling and "Juno's" casual acceptance of a 16-year-old girl's unplanned pregnancy. Although distributed by Fox Searchlight, "Juno" was independently financed by Mandate Pictures, which specializes in low-budget art-house and horror movies. If the film had been at a major studio it wouldn't be a stretch to hear a studio executive saying to Diablo Cody, who wrote the script, "I really love the cool slang and the funny phone, but does Juno really have to be pregnant?"

Read the rest.

It seems that the only film to receive multiple acting nominations was "Michael Clayton," which garnered three citations for George Clooney, Tilda Swinton and Tom Wilkinson.  That has to be a first, though I haven't dug into researching that notion.

The press release in part:

BURBANK, CA, JANUARY 16, 2008 - On the heels of widespread critical acclaim and awards season recognition, Warner Bros. Pictures is planning a theatrical re-release of Tony Gilroy's drama "Michael Clayton," starring George Clooney in the title role. The film will return to theatres on January 25 in approximately 1,000 locations in North America. The announcement was made today by Dan Fellman, President of Domestic Distribution.

Originally released in October 2007, "Michael Clayton" was immediately met with praise from both critics and audiences. In recent weeks, it has been named to more than 100 critics' top-ten lists, including those of the Los Angeles Times, The New York Times, USA Today, Entertainment Weekly, New York Magazine, the Chicago Sun-Times, The Washington Post, The Boston Globe, the Miami Herald, The Philadelphia Inquirer, People, and Time, as well as the American Film Institute, to name only a few.

Among the film's other distinguished honors, director/screenwriter Tony Gilroy has been recognized by his peers with Directors Guild of America and Writers Guild of America Awards nominations. Cast members Clooney, Tom Wilkinson and Tilda Swinton each received Screen Actors Guild Award nominations. Most recently, the film's producers were honored with a nomination for the Darryl F. Zanuck Motion Picture Producer of the Year Award from the Producers Guild of America. The film's behind-the-scenes creative talent earned American Cinema Editors Award and Art Directors Guild Award nominations. In addition, "Michael Clayton" garnered five BAFTA Award nominations, for Best Actor (Clooney), Best Supporting Actor (Tom Wilkinson), Best Supporting Actress (Tilda Swinton), Best Screenplay (Gilroy) and Best Editing (John Gilroy). It also received four Golden Globe Award nominations, including Best Picture - Drama, Best Actor (Clooney), Best Supporting Actor (Tom Wilkinson) and Best Supporting Actress (Tilda Swinton). In addition, George Clooney won Best Actor Awards from several critics groups, including the National Board of Review.

This is a guild that nominates 15 films in three categories, so it's a little difficult to judge how they may or may not translate in the actual Art Directio category (beyond knowing that contemporary films are almost always left out of the mix).  But it is certainly beneficial to see which films have clear insustry support.

The usual suspects are here: "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood."  No "Juno" or "Into the Wild," but neither film showcases this craft.  However, with that in mind, "The Bourne Ultimatum" continues a stealthy trek through the guild precursor circuit by showing up in the contemporary category today.

"Atonement" gets its first guild mentions since the ASC mention at the beginning of the week (and what a long week it must have seemed to the Focus camp in that regard).  "American Gangster" also found its first industry love since two SAG nominations last month.

Finally, it has to be encouraging for Miramax to have "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" surprisingly pop up in the contemporary field.  As it continues to make a case for a Best Picture nomination, these guild citations only fuel the cause.

Here are the nominees:

PERIOD FILM:

"American Gangster" (Arthur Max)
"Atonement" (Sarah Greenwood)
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Dante Ferretti)
"There Will Be Blood" (Jack Fisk)

FANTASY FILM:

"The Golden Compass" (Dennis Gassner)
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (Stuart Craig)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Rick Heinrichs)
"Ratatouille" (Harley Jessup)
"300" (James Bissell)

CONTEMPORARY FILM:

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Peter Wenham)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Michel Eric and Laurent Ott)
"The Kite Runner" (Carlos Conti)
"Michael Clayton" (Kevin Thompson)
"No Country for Old Men" (Jess Gonchor)

"Into the Wild," "Juno," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" were among the nominees of today's American Cinema Editor awards, likely solidifying the final line-up for Best Picture.  Hopefuls like "Atonement" and "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" were ignored by the guild, the former having gone 1/5 with the industry's guild announcements over the last few weeks.

Here are the ACE's nominees:


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Christopher Rouse)
"Into the Wild" (Jay Cassidy)
"Michael Clayton" (John Gilroy)
"No Country for Old Men" (Roderick Jaynes)
"There Will Be Blood" (Dylan Tichenor)


BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

"Hairspray" (Michael Tronick)
"Juno" (Dana E. Glauberman)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At Worlds End" (Craig Wood & Stephen E. Rivkin)
"Ratatouille" (Darren Holmes)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Chris Lebenzon)

Another feature from Variety this week, the Eye on the Oscars: The Look special, which focuses on design elements in 2007's awards hopefuls.  There are 8 films featured specifically, in addition to two separate feature pieces.

First, Kathy A. Macdonald takes a look at the mixture of authenticity and post-modern spin in the year's frontier pics: "3:10 to Yuma," "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" and "There Will Be Blood."  The costume and production design heads from each are quoted.

Addmie Morfoot, meanwhile, looks at the spectrum through the other lens, detailing depictions of and diversity on location in the Big Apple.  "Across the Universe," "American Gangster," "The Brave One," "Enchanted," "The Hoax," "I Am Legend," "Michael Clayton" and "We Own the Night" are all featured.  I didn't realize how much NYC played into this year's product until I read that piece...interesting.

Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

The hunt for the Best Actor trophy has been an interesting one all year long.

At one point along the way, somebody out there floated the idea that nothing seemed strong enough to compete with Daniel Day-Lewis or Johnny Depp and that the race was likely between those two scenery-chewing performances.  That settled into the conventional wisdom for a spell, then George Clooney began to take down critics award after critics award, making him in that hunt to say the least.  But Clooney just won the Oscar two years ago for "Syriana," albeit a supporting trophy.  And then Depp couldn't manage a nomination from the guild that gave him a win in this category fur years ago for playing a pirate.

All of this is the long way of getting to today's conventional wisdom, which is that Daniel Day-Lewis has the win in the bag.  It's been nearly 20 years since "My Left Foot," the performance is one for the ages, the movie is burning up the critical scene like wildfire.  In a season determined to be elusive (does ANYONE have a convincing argument for one of the films in play taking Best Picture?), maybe we can all finally put this one to bed.

But...still...I've done this long enough to know that things aren't always as they seem.

•  Anne Thompson assesses the potential lack of a Golden Globes telecast... [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  ...and runs into "The Dark Knight" helmer Christopher Nolan at a holiday gathering this week, grills him on the IMAX experience of th 2008 WB tentpole. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Pete Hammond also digs into the awards show dillemmas before offering thoughts on later season hopefuls. [The Envelope]

•  Michael Cieply is also hot on the trail of the Globes situation. [New York Times]

•  Jeffrey Wells is back on the "Oscar prognostication should be about spotlighting quality" thing again. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Sasha Stone has a look at IFC's "Oconoclasts" with Sean Penn and Jon Krakauer, a very absorbing "Guy's guy" special that I'd encourage anyone, fan of "Into the Wild" or not, to give a look. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil tries to get a bead on the comedy/musical races at the Globes. [Gold Derby]

•  Claudia Puig hails "Michael Clayton" the best film of 2007. [USA Today]

The Screen Actors Guild announced its list of nominees in five cateogries today, and boy did Focus Features' "Atonement" take a major hit.  The Golden Globe nom leader showed a big goose egg from the actors, leaving some serious doubt for its Best Picture prospects this season.

On the other hand, Paramount Vantage's "Into the Wild" picked up a major head of steam after a weak HFPA showing by grabbing four nods, including a mention for Best Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture.  The film led the pack with four nods altogether.

Surprises included Johnny Depp (and his film, "Sweeney Todd") being absent from the roster, the first major mention of the season for Ruby Dee's supporting performance in "American Gangster" and, in a total head-spinner, "3:10 to Yuma" picking up some attention for its enemble.

Regarding the latter, it seems all the hard work Ben Foster and Peter Fonda have been putting into Q&A appearances for the film, not to mention Christian Bale's latest wave of December publicity here in town, paid off in the long run.  I couldn't be happier as I've been waiting patiently for some awards notice for the film all season long.

Typically SAG gets the ladies' categories right when i t comes to forecasting Oscar, especially in the leading category.  So we might have those arenas sewn up.  The fellas' areas are a different bag of tricks, however, seeing past mentions for actors like Russel Crowe ("Cinderella Man"), Don Cheadle ("Crash") and James Garner ("The Notebook") that didn't carry over with AMPAS.  With that in mind, I would personally say the weak spots are Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl"), Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises") and Tommy Lee Jones ("No Country for Old Men").

Today's announcement is significant in that it is the first set of nominations to come from the industry rather than critics groups and journalists.  The guilds are where it's at where predicting Oscar is concerned, so stay tuned over the next couple of weeks.

The full list of nominees:

Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
Cate Blanchett, "Elizabeth: The Golden Age"
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tommy Lee Jones, "No Country for Old Men"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Cate Blanchett, "I'm Not There"
Ruby Dee, "American Gangster"
Catherine Keener, "Into the Wild"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
"3:10 to Yuma"
"American Gangster"
"Hairspray"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"

Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
"300"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"I Am Legend"
"The Kingdom"
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End"

It's like clockwork.  LA Times columnist Patrick Goldstein wheels his ornery bones out in the middle of December for a healthy chorus of Oscar blogger hatred and critics pouncing on the way to both offering critical assessments of films in play and trying his hand at prognosticating the Academy Awards to come.

You couldn't make this stuff up.

This year the points of attack are Scott Foundas (who got his panties in a twist over Oscar bloggers two weeks ago), The Envelope (cleverly, I guess diplomatically disguised as "this paper" by Goldstein) and the harmless And the Winner Is, of all things.  I guess Scott Feinberg has finally hit it big.

Goldstein left favorite whipping boys David Poland and Jeffrey "the Lewis Black of Oscar bloggers" Wells alone this time around.  And thankfully, I didn't have to deal with one of those "Kris, I love your site, would love to talk with you about Oscar blogs for a piece I'm putting together" emails this year.  But regardless, this song and dance grows more and more tedious with each...passing...year.

Anyway, Goldstein seems to think Tim Burton's "Sweeney Todd" will take down the Best Picture award with 7-1 odds.  Say what you will about Oscar bloggers, but we don't concoct ODDS.  And we're the ones appearing to be "breathless racetrack tipsters?"

"Atonement" (8-1), "No Country for Old Men" (9-1), "Michael Clayton" (12-1) and "Juno" (14-1) round out Goldstein's top five contenders.

For some context, here are Goldstein's past rankings:

2006
"Dreamgirls" (4-1)
"The Queen" (6-1)
"The Departed" (9-1)
"Little Miss Sunshine" (10-1)
"Flags of Our Fathers" (12-1)

2005
Can't find them.  Anyone know?  Sadly, I also can't find Goldstein's infamous "Beware of Blog" column from the very same year that contained more vitriol than usual.

2004
"Ray" (6-1)
"Million Dollar Baby" (7-1)
"Sideways" (8-1)
"Spanglish" (9-1)
"Finding Neverland" (12-1)

2003
"Mystic River" (6-1)
"Lord of the Rings: Return of the King" (8-1)
"Cold Mountain" (10-1)
"Finding Nemo" (14-1)
"House of Sand & Fog" (15-1)

2002
"Chicago" (5-1)
"Road to Perdition" (8-1)
"Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers" (10-1)
"Antwone Fisher" (12-1)
"About Schmidt" (14-1)

2001
"Ali" (4-1)
"A Beautiful Mind" (6-1)
"The Majestic" (8-1)
"The Shipping News" (10-1)
"Shrek" (12-1)

Zzzzzzzzzzzzz......

"Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"Knocked Up"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"
"There Will Be Blood" 

Variety has the story.