Actor in a Supporting Role  Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Tom Hanks landed on the Late Show Tuesday night to talk "Charlie Wilson's War" with David Letterman.  The segment is split into two parts on YouTube, but here's the second half, which includes some politics discussion and the "Charlie" bits:



There was also this writers strike bit.  Hanks was slated to be on the show on a date that came amidst the strike, and the gag is he didn't realize the strike hadn't resolved itself.  Funny stuff:



Speaking of Letterman and the strike, I saw a picketer carrying a "ViaCON" sign in front of the Ed Sullivan Theater yesterday afternoon. Not overly clever, but "ouch" nontheless.

Looking at Awards Daily's USC Scripter preview, something just seems a bit clinical about Sasha Stone's list of predicted nominees.  This is an award that has certainly included curevablls in the mix:  "The Bourne Supremacy," "Friday Night Lights" and "The Door in the Floor" in 2004; "The Shipping News" in 2001; "All the Pretty Horses" and "The House of Mirth" in 2000, etc.  Granted, looking back over the award's match-up with Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars, the safe bet is usually to expect the frontrunners to pop up, but there's a wide swath to pick from this year.

Sasha is going with "Atonement," "Charlie Wilson's War," "Into the Wild," "No Country for Old Men," and "There Will Be Blood."  Of course, as Stone points out, the Scripter honors both the screenwriters and the originalauthors of the source material, so it's really hard to expect Ian McEwan, Cormac McCarthy and Upton Sinclair missing from the mix.  I'm not as sold on George Crile and even Jon Krakauer, but it's certainly likely we'll see these scripts show up here and with Oscar.  Still, "The Kite Runner" was such a global hit when it landed on bookshelves and Dennis Lehane ("Gone Baby Gone") is such a celebrated author.  And given the "Bourne" entry in '04, who's to say Tony Gilroy can't slide in yet again for what has widely been considered the best offering in the trilogy?

It's all speculation for now, so we'll have to wait and see.  But the USC Scripter kicks off 2008's continuance of the Oscar season tomorrow, so stay tuned...

We're anxiously awaiting the SAG announcement, but in the meantime...

•  Hilton Als calls "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" a "visual essay about physical and spiritual isolation," compares the film to Elaine Scarry's "The Body in Pain."  Heavy. [The New Yorker]

•  Golden Globe nominee Tom Hanks apparently tells unruly and disrespectful MySpacers to go f*** themselves. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Todd Martens gets "Juno" composer Mateo Messina to answer a few queries about his experimental score and, of course, working in the shadow of Sonic Youth and the Kinks on the film's soundtrack. [Extended Play]

•  Sasha Stone thinks it might be time to take "Charlie Wilson's War" seriously again.  Eh. [Awards Daily]

•  Speaking of which, here's yet another pre-release piece on the film. [USA Today]

•  Ramin Satoodeh points us to David Ansen's mixed-bag top 10 list (and his own to boot). [The Gold Digger]

•  The strike gives David Cronenberg second thoughts about attending the Golden Globes -- he expects to be a no-show. [Gold Rush]

•  New York Magazine stretches for a story by indicating rash of recent pregnancies as perhaps detrimental to the awards success of "Juno." [Vulture]

•  BUT, they also start a cool "For Your Consideration" feature.  This week" McLovin' for Best Supporting Actor. [Vulture]

•  Warner Bros. unleashes the high def tailer for "The Dark Knight" onto a salivating web-geek community. [A Taste for the Theatrical]

•  Pete Hammond keeps those speculative wheels spinning on Will Smith's "I Am Legend" turn. [The Envelope]

•  That's probably because the film shattered box office records this weekend. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil calls the Lond critics noms "curious."  Why, because they strayed from the herd? [Gold Derby]

•  The American Film Institute sticks with the herd. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells responds... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and gets into the ins and outs of Daniel Day-Lewis' wardrobe choices. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  David Poland gets into the specifics of the year's top ten lists. [The Hot Blog]

•  Speaking of top tens, yours truly adds his opinion to the collective. [In Contention]

•  Jesse Green gets into Stephen Sondheim and "Sweeney Todd" at the Gray Lady. [New York Times]

•  Richard Berke, meanwhile, reports on screenplay alterations that led to something of a white-washed "Charlie Wilson's War," among other things. [New York Times]

•  Glenn Kenny also does "Wilson," with director Mike Nichols. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Sasha Stone points us to a massive collection of FYC ads (though hers is still fabulous). [Awards Daily]

•  "Juno" seems to have a new fan site on the web. [And the Winner Is...]

•  Speaking of which, star Ellen Page fields unnecessary "Knocked Up" comparisons at New York Magazine. [Vulture]

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

Erik Childress' "Oscar Eye" column has the full list of Chicago Film Critics nominations mixed in with his tally of who's won what.  You have to kind of pick things out, but the full list is there.

"No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" continue to show up, but the group went out of its way to personally champion "Once" in more than a few areas, including Best Picture.

Casey Affleck popped up again for his supporting turn in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," while Viggo Mortensen found some Best Actor love for his work in David Cronenberg's "Eastern Promises."  Frank Langella also made another appearance in the lead field for "Starting Out in the Evening."

Another key contender showing up in the nominations is "Zodiac," which managed citations for Best Director (david Fincher) and Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Michael Clayton" led the way with seven nominations.  "Blood" wasn't far behind with six.  Nothing for "The Kite Runner" or "Sweeney Todd."

Best Picture
"Into the Wild"
"Michael Clayton"
"No Country for Old Men"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, "There Will Be Blood"
Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
David Fincher, "Zodiac"
Jason Reitman, "Juno"

Best Actor
George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Daniel Day-Lewis, "There Will Be Blood"
Ryan Gosling, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Frank Langella, "Starting Out in the Evening"
Viggo Mortensen, "Eastern Promises"

Best Actress
Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Marion Cotillard, "La Vie en Rose"
Angelina Jolie, "A Mighty Heart"
Laura Linney, "The Savages"
Ellen Page, "Juno"

Best Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Hal Holbrook, "Into the Wild"
Tom Wilkinson, "Michael Clayton"

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchet, "I'm Not There"
Jennifer Jason Leigh, "Margot at the Wedding"
Leslie Mann, "Knocked Up"
Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Tilda Swinton, "Michael Clayton"

Best Adapted Screenplay
"Atonement"
"Into the Wild"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"
"Zodiac"

Best Original Screenplay
"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"
"Juno"
"Michael Clayton"
"Ratatouille"
"The Savages"

Best Cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"No Country for Old Men"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Score
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"Lust, Caution"
"Once"
"There Will Be Blood"

Best Animated Feature
"Beowulf"
"Meet the Robinsons"
"Persepolis"
"Ratatouille"
"The Simpsons Movie"

Best Foreign Film
"4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days"
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"
"The Orphanage"

Best Documentary
"Darfur Now"
"The King of Kong: A Fistful of Quarters"
"Lake of Fire"
"No End in Sight"
"Sicko"

Promising Director
Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
John Carney, "Once"
Craig Gillespie, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Tony Gilroy, "Michael Clayton"
Sarah Polley, "Away from Her"

Promising Performer
Nikki Blonsky, "Hairspray"
Michael Cera, "Juno"/"Superbad"
Glen Hansard, "Once"
Carice van Houten, "Black Book"
Tang Wei, "Lust, Caution"

More of these!

The Washington, D.C. critics voted today, giving their Best Picture honors to "No Country for Old Men."  So in one day, it's the Coens vs. P.T.A across four awards-giving bodies.  INTERESTING.

Here's the full list of D.C. winners

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away From Her"
Best Ensemble: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actor: Javier Bardem, "No Country for Old Men"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Breakthrough Performance: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Aaron Sorkin, "Charlie Wilson's War"
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, "Juno"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Foreign Language Film: "The Diving Bell and The Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Sicko"
Best Art Direction: "Sweeney Todd:The Demon Barber of Fleet Street"

So that's 3 for 4 for Amy Ryan today.  I didn't see that coming, I have to say.  Aaron Sorkin's win for "Charlie Wilson's War" is a bit out of left field, given that "No Country for Old Men" racked up three other wins (including a second score for ensemble acting).

No precursor love so far for "Atonement" and "American Gangster."

The Envelope's Tom O'Neil hustled me to the fringes of last night's "Sweeney" soirée to talk the Oscar race.  Here's the mp3.  Mind you I had just zipped over there after taking a final that had capably knocked the wind out of me, so who knows what I said.  Good news is I was only on beer #1.

Tom also got Johnny Depp and Stephen Sondheim on the record.

•  Sasha Stone jumos on board the "Juno" express. [Awards Daily]

•  Tom O'Neil responds to the National Board of Review announcement. [Gold Derby]

•  David Poland does the same, as only he can. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ditto Jeffrey Wells. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  And, of course, David Carr has his thoughts. [The Carpetbagger]

•  The Gurus o' Gold chime in on the screenplay races. [Movie City News]

•  T.L. Stanley says the NBR tosses around a lot of weight and that "it matters what they think."  Hm. [Gold Rush]

•  Scott Feinberg talks to one of the unsung heroes of the awards season thus far, Jennifer Garner, as his "Juno" love-fest keeps a-chuggin'. [And the Winner Is...]

•  John Horn ponders the implications of moving "Charlie Wilson's War" to a December 21 release date. [Los Angeles Times]

•  Carr talks awards at the new Miramax under honcho Daniel Battsek. [New York Times]

•  David Carr runs some insular Times commentary regarind the L.A. premiere of "Juno." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Dissecting the potential "domestic strife" in screenwriter Diablo Cody's life via her tattoos.  Are we really going there? [The Envelope]

•  Todd Martens on intimate concert shindigs in lieu of sending music to Academy members. [The Envelope]

•  Sam Adams talks to the elusive Eddie Vedder about the tracks in "Into the Wild." [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil talks to our own Anne Thompson about the Oscar derby. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone cleans up her NBR predictions. [Awards Daily]

•  T.L. Stanley takes the measure of Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Terrence Howard's double-dipping potential. [Gold Rush]

•  David lunch talks to "Into the Wild" star Emile Hirsch. [The Hot Blog]

•  Ben Kawaller solicits some interesting comments from Tim Burton. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick starts his Oscar overview, focusing on the big races... [New York Post]

•  ...and follows it up with some other ponderings in his blog. [New York Post]

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

•  Variety has a SAG Awards preview, including Zachary Pincus-Roth's chat with casting directors about finding the right balance in front of the camera. [Variety]

•  According to Tom O'Neil, Russell Crowe will be competing against himself in the lead category at the Golden Globes. [Gold Derby]

•  Sasha Stone catches up to "Charlie Wilson's War." [Awards Daily]

•  Pete Hammond scopes out the screening and Q&A scene, including a "rare" appearance by Jack Nicholson in front of the SAG earlier in the week. [The Envelope]

•  Gerard Kennedy surveys the Best Film Editing landscape. [In Contention]

•  Brian Kinsley makes some Golden Globe comedy/musical predictions. [In Contention]

•  Todd McCarthy digs into "The Golden Compass." [Variety]

•  So does David Poland. [The Hot Blog]

•  Poland also has lunch with the stars of "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [The Hot Blog]

•  Martin Grove, meanwhile, talks to director Julian Schnabel. [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  The Gurus o' Gold make acting category calls. [Movie City News]

•  The year's first top 10 list surfaces...well, top 50.  [Paste Magazine]

•  Lou Lumenick calls "Atonement" the "most achingly romantic movie since 'Titanic.'" [New York Post]

•  Peter Knegt makes another set of predictions. [indieWIRE]

•  Oh yeah, and non-review reactions to "Sweeney Todd," from Tom O'Neil... [Gold Derby]

•  ...and yours truly. [In Contention]

According to Tom O'Neil, "Charlie Wilson's War" has been designated a comedy/musical by the HFPA for Golden Globe consideration.

Us pesky bloggers weren't terribly impressed, but Variety and The Hollywood Reporter both came to the resuce of "Charlie Wilson's War" yesterday, with Todd McCarthy and Kirk Honeycutt running positive assessments.

I'll just re-publish Jeffrey Wells' quick item:

Todd McCarthy called it "a smart, sophisticated entertainment for grownups...snappy, amusing and ruefully ironic." And the Hollywood Reporter's Kirk Honeycutt said...well, it's hard to find a tight summation of opinion, but he notes that this "outrageous tale of 1980s-era good corruption, apparently largely true and all the more outrageous for that, might be the perfect antidote to today's shrill political scene with Republicans and Democrats staking out intractable positions and accomplishing little."

•  Michael Cieply on the "ghettoized" Animated Feature category and the Best Picture hopes of "Ratatouille." [New York Times]

•  David Carr responds, then gets into Manohla Dargis' review of "The Savages." [The Carpetbagger]

•  Tom O'Neil calls New York's Gotham Awards a "fiasco." [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells is a fan of the new trailer for "There Will Be Blood," which left another audience in stunned silence last night at the DGA. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Brian Kinsley thinks Amy Adams may have won Best Actress when "Enchanted" opened to stellar business and reviews over the holiday weekend. [In Contention]

•  Yours truly isn't as convinced as Martin Grove on Frank Langella and Christopher Plummer. [In Contention]

•  Ramin Satoodeh recaps the Gotham Awards. [The Gold Digger]

•  After nearly a month's absence from his New York Magazine blog, David Edelstein finally makes a post -- this one's about polarized reviews of "I'm Not There." [The Projectionist]

•  In the wake of "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short of expectations, more people come out of the woodwork to proclaim they "saw this coming." [indieWIRE]

•  Ryan C. Adams digs into the first UK reviews of "The Golden Compass." [Awards Daily]

•  "Into the Wild" wins the season's first major Best Picture prize at the Gotahm Awards. [Variety]

•  David Carr reports from the scene. [The Carpetbagger]

•  Anne Thompson racks up "No Country" talk across the web, including this and that about the film's ending. [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  Martin Grove speaks up on behalf of Christopher Plummer's performance in "Man in the Chair." [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  T.L. Stanley blogs the campaign strategy for the performance. [Gold Rush]

•  Tom O'Neil compares the Gothams and the Indie Spirits. [Gold Derby]

•  Ramin Satoodeh was no fan of "Charlie Wilson's War." [The Gold Digger]

•  Nathaniel Rogers runs down a list great performances in not-so-great films. [The Film Experience]

•  Variety begins coverage of the Gotham Awards. [Variety]

•  David Poland offers his mea culpa regarding yesterday's Cate Blanchett category slip-and-slide...he was "played." [The Hot Blog]

•  Tom O'Neil sees "Charlie Wilson's War." [Gold Derby]

•  Ditto yours truly... [In Contention]

•  ...and Jeffrey Wells... [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  ...and Poland. [Movie City News]

•  Todd Martens on the addition of Kate Bush's "Lyra" from "The Golden Compass" to the Best Original Song race. [Extended Play]

•  Noah Forrest offers some casual thoughts on Oscar. [Movie City News]

•  Scott Feinberg talks to "Waitress" star Keri Russell. [And the Winner Is...]

David Poland hasn't even taken a minute to let the film settle before going all out and writing a 1,800-word review of "Charlie Wilson's War."  It actually reads like he didn't take a minute, too, but in any case, he sings the praises of Phil Hoffman, calls Wilson a "perfect fit" for Tom Hanks and considers Julia Roberts "miscast" (doing his usual "so and so would have been better" routine).

Overall, he doesn't seem to have been impressed.

Jeffrey Wells, meanwhile, is okay with the film being "very good but not great," calls Hoffman a "lock" for a Best Supporting Actor nomination.

At a concise and seemingly amputated 97 minutes, "Charlie Wilson's War" may have surprised more than a few of tonight's press-heavy crowd when the credits suddenly rolled at Universal's first major west coast exhibition of the film this evening.

That's not to say they didn't like it (judging by a modest but warm round of applause), or that there isn't anything to like about the film.  There was plenty of laughter throughout (mostly at the lines delivered by Phillip Seymour Hoffman's cut-throat Gust Avrakotos) and a generaly air of enjoyment in the crowd.  But when reactions start to hit the net later this evening, tomorrow morning or later into the week (here's a knee-jerk from yours truly), I expect a number of the Oscar-watching readership to realize that we're all guilty of building buzz too strongly, hustling to anoint something a "frontrunner" based on pedigree, all in the name of forecasting a scenario that proves itself malleable and ignorant of hard and fast rules year in and year out.

Anyway, I won't make any declarations in this space, but we'll see what the critics and awards analysts have to say soon enough.  For now, Tom O'Neil, who was at the New York screening of the film earlier this evening, has some thoughts up.

•  Yours truly takes a look at "The Great Debaters." [In Contention]

•  Anne Thompson offers some hard Oscar knocks for "Into the Wild," "Zodiac," indicates potential awards greatness for "Enchanted." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  T.L. Stanley wonders if "August Rush" could be this year's "Mr. Holland's Opus." [Gold Rush]

•  The Envelope continues to give more and more tech category consideration due, one would assume, to Sheigh Crabtree's spirited efforts...bravo.  Today, Patrick "I hate Oscar bloggers" Goldstein talks to Harris Savides, largely about "American Gangster."  [The Envelope]

•  Meanwhile, Elizabeth Snead talks to Alexandra Byrne about the one nomination you can put money on for "Elizabeth: The Golden Age": Best Costume Design. [The Envelope]

•  Mark Olsen chats it up with Todd Haynes re: "I'm Not There." [The Envelope]

•  Choire Sicha has a profile of "Diving Bell" star Emmanuelle Seigner. [Los Angeles Times]

•  According to the AP, a judge argues against the sale of two Mark Pickford Oscars in Los Angeles county. [Variety]

•  Tom O'Neil updates us on what films guild and Academy members have recieved, though he leaves off the Focus titles (which shipped this week). [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells thinks Time magazine has "damned" the Oscar chances of "Charlie Wilson's War" by talking about the film with a light and whimsical syntax. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick responds to the documentary feature shortlist. [New York Post]

•  Documentary director A.J. Schnack does the same...in fact, he's a little pissed, to be quite honest. [All These Wonderful Things, indieWIRE]

•  Ryan C. Adams takes us back to "Waitress." [Awards Daily]

I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.

For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).

If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.

Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists.  A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc.  The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives.  One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter.  They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films.  But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.

I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings.  First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans.  The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.

Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night."  Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.

The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire."  The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."

31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.

Now, let's get to the consensus chart.  Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:

01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)

Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say.  This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.

Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.

Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.

"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months.  We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.

In today's Buzzmeter rankings at The Envelope, it seems "Juno" has moved into the top five Best Picture considerations, while Paul Dano has lept up into the supporting actor fray.

I'm tempted to go along with the latter once again (while I've already been on board for the former) because it seems to be, if anything, a situation where an explosive leading performance pulls the supporting portrayal along for the awards ride -- no matter the perception out there that Dano might be somewhat out of his league.

It seems to recall Ethan Hawke's nomination alongside Denzel Washington in "Training Day."  Though, in this viewer's mind, Hawke's performance there has only been matched by his work this year in "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead."

Other buzz gainers include JamesMcAvoy and Vanessa Regrave for "Atonement" and Ridley Scott for "American Gangster."  Mike Nichols took a tumble in the director ranks for "Charlie Wilson's War" and, indeed, his film only show up in one other category chart: Best Supporting Actor, Phillip Seymour Hoffman.

Take a look at the update.  I'm thinking about gathering up all the info from the Gurus o' Gold, the Sultans of Bling and the Buzzmeter to see what an overall consensus would look like.

Jeez, I totally just sounded like a dork.

No news out there today...holiday week...

•  Tom O'Neil takes us back to 1998. [Gold Derby]

•  David Poland has lunch with "Into the Wild" contender Hal Holbrook. [The Hot Blog]

•  Susan Wloszczyna offers an orientation to the daemons of "The Golden Compass." [USA Today]

•  Sasha Stone on Julia Roberts' Oprah appearance. [Awards Daily]

It appears Time's Richard Corliss has gotten a little loose-lipped about "Charlie Wilson's War," which has screened for an amount of people I guess you could count on one hand.  He seems to think the film will be the one successful war film of the year and that "audiences should have a great time watching it."

Here's more:

"An early peek at Charlie Wilson's War, which opens Christmas Day, suggests that it could be the one war film people will enjoy seeing. Set in the '80s, it details the efforts of a Texas Congressman (Tom Hanks) to get arms to the mujahedin fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan. The Mike Nichols film, co-starring Oscar winners Julia Roberts and Philip Seymour Hoffman, is at heart a can-do comedy about a wheeler-dealer having a good time doing good."

Source: Time Magazine

James Newton Howard is a busy man this year.  In addition to composing the music for "The Great Debaters," "I Am Legend," "The Lookout" and "Michael Clayton," I'm just now realizing he was tapped by Mike Nichols to replace the original composer on "Charlie Wilson's War" (which, FYI, explains the film's tardiness in a certain regard -- the sound mix is said to still be in the process of completion).  Five films, four of them, perhaps, aiming for major awards contention.

Hope you catch up on some sleep over the holidays, Mr. Howard.  Sheesh...

•  Anne Thompson sticks it to the Academy screening committe for not giving the little guys a chance -- namely, "Lars and the Real Girl." [Thompson on Hollywood]

•  indieWIRE tracks the buzz on documentary feature eigibility. [indieWIRE]

•  David Poland follows suit. [The Hot Blog]

•  And Sasha Stone, too. [Awards Daily]

•  Claiming that "The Bucket List," "Charlie Wilson's War" and "Sweeney Todd" are looking "hazy" as Best Picture contenders, Jeffrey Wells thinks "The Great Debaters" is the season's last major hope. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Nathaniel Rogers has more insights into last week's Tim Burton event in New York. [The Film Experience]

•  Tom O'Neil spins his wheels about the Oscar chances of "Margot at the Wedding." [Gold Derby]

•  Ramon Setoodeh is still taking credit for a prediction that a) wasn't that unpopular when he made it; and b) hasn't exactly come to fruition yet, given that we're over two months away from nominations. [The Gold Digger]

•  New York Magazine calls it a "great week for 'Diving Bell'" in it's latest weekly recap. [Vulture]

•  Lou Lumenick chimes in with thoughts on the online "Sweeney Todd" events of the week. [New York Post]

•  Randee Dawn talks to Noah Baumbach about "Margot at the Wedding." [The Hollywood Reporter]

Really getting into the thick of the awards season, Variety's special issues are starting to heat up.  In print today: "The Contenders."

Yours truly (with major contributions from the industrious Sharon Swart) kicks things off with a glimpse at most of the players, some inside chatter, and an attempt at contextualizing the already steam-rolling season.

There are also a number of profiles for films in play.  Of the perceived heavies, Steven Gaydos tackles box office champ "American Gangster," Peter Debruge tries to get a bead on the unseen "Charlie Wilson's War" and Tim Gray gets into the gore of "Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street."

As for the dark horses, Debruge sizes up "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," Gaydos gets into "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and Anthony Kaufman showcases "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly."

And we're off!  More and more special issues stuff to come, including the always revealing actor/actress profiles edition.  Stay tuned.

Universal Pictures has finally cooked up a one-sheet for Mike Nichols' "Charlie Wilson's War," and I have to say, it's a little bland.  ComingSoon.net has the exclusive.

Word has it the studio is calling the film a "black comedy" and may even be looking to position it in the comedy category for Golden Globe consideration (though this may simply be chatter and speculation on Uni's part getting blown into bigger proportion by the press).  I can't say whether that's the strategy or not, but this psuedo-Hugh Grant-ish, high-key-lit, glossy little thing is certainly a step in that direction.

I thought the script for "Charlie," which has been widely read, it seems, was a biting piece of Aaron Sorkin goodness.  Certainly it had its comedic elements (and the trailer has played up these moments, to be sure), but there was a richness to the drama and socio-political gravitas on the page that could certainly have been cultivated through production.

I guess we'll get a better idea in the coming weeks.  Uni doesn't plan to screen the film until the middle of next month.  Nichols is probably hunched over an Avid somewhere right now shaving frames off a sequence that will likely get cut anyway.  He's meticulous, that one.

Now I know not EVERYONE who comes to this page is an Oscar obssessive with stored-up knowledge on the season.  So if you haven't read George Crile's book and want some backdrop on the "Charlie" plot, take a look at the Charlie Wilson Wikipedia page.

•  Sasha Stone thinks "The Kite Runner" has the stuff to win Best Picture. [Awards Daily]

•  Through Jeffrey Wells, Universal Pictures publicity clears up rumors concernign re-shoots on awards contender "Charlie Wilson's War." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil, meanwhile, offers some rumor-busting of his own -- concerning category placement for Helena Bonham Carter in "Sweeney Todd." [Gold Derby]

•  Jason Reitman's "Juno" takes top prize at Rome Film Festival. [Reuters]