Music (Score) Alberto Iglesias

This is a guild that nominates 15 films in three categories, so it's a little difficult to judge how they may or may not translate in the actual Art Directio category (beyond knowing that contemporary films are almost always left out of the mix).  But it is certainly beneficial to see which films have clear insustry support.

The usual suspects are here: "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "There Will Be Blood."  No "Juno" or "Into the Wild," but neither film showcases this craft.  However, with that in mind, "The Bourne Ultimatum" continues a stealthy trek through the guild precursor circuit by showing up in the contemporary category today.

"Atonement" gets its first guild mentions since the ASC mention at the beginning of the week (and what a long week it must have seemed to the Focus camp in that regard).  "American Gangster" also found its first industry love since two SAG nominations last month.

Finally, it has to be encouraging for Miramax to have "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" surprisingly pop up in the contemporary field.  As it continues to make a case for a Best Picture nomination, these guild citations only fuel the cause.

Here are the nominees:

PERIOD FILM:

"American Gangster" (Arthur Max)
"Atonement" (Sarah Greenwood)
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Guy Hendrix Dyas)
"Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (Dante Ferretti)
"There Will Be Blood" (Jack Fisk)

FANTASY FILM:

"The Golden Compass" (Dennis Gassner)
"Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix" (Stuart Craig)
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Rick Heinrichs)
"Ratatouille" (Harley Jessup)
"300" (James Bissell)

CONTEMPORARY FILM:

"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Peter Wenham)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Michel Eric and Laurent Ott)
"The Kite Runner" (Carlos Conti)
"Michael Clayton" (Kevin Thompson)
"No Country for Old Men" (Jess Gonchor)

•  David Poland kicks off his list of the year's best by taking a jab at supporters of "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "There Will Be Blood" and "Zodiac," chalks the lovefest up to "critical onanism."  Oh, and "I'm Not There" tops his list. [The Hot Button]

•  Bob Verini hypothesizes the comedy and musical categories of the Golden Globes to be a major audience draw for a telecast. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells talks to filmmaker Daivd Fincher about "Zodiac" and next year's "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," among other things. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil and Pete Hammond call the race as it is...for now, anyway. [Gold Derby]

•  The Times of London has a sit-down with "4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days" helmer Cristian Mungiu. [Times Online]

•  Todd Martens on the music behind John Salyes' "Honeydripper." [Extended Play]

•  Stu VanAirsdale kicks off his annual "Top 10 Top 10 Lists" list. [The Reeler]

•  Josh Jurgensen sits down with Tim Burton to talk "Sweeney Todd." [Wall Street Journal]

•  A little Helena Bonham Carter worship from Nathaniel Rogers. [The Film Experience]

•  "Atonement," "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" and "The Great Debaters" land on a list of the week's mostpirated flicks. [Torrent Freak]

•  The Hollywood Reporter's Andrew Wallenstein responds. [Reel Pop]

•  New York Magazine, meanwhile, wonders how long studios will continue to mail out screeners given how piracy happens each and every year...but I wouldn't worry about that yet. [Vulture]

•  Ramin Setoodeh is back with an anti-"Atonement" survey, an anti-"Sweeney Todd" hypothesis, and some pro-"Juno" sentiments. [The Gold Digger]

•  Paul Brownfield talks to Vanessa Redgrave about the "gravity" of her five minutes in "Atonement." [Los Angeles Times]

•  Donna Freydkin gets into the threads of "Sweeney Todd" with costume designer Collen Atwood. [USA Today]

•  A night out on the town with "The Kite Runner" star Khaid Abdallah. [New York Times]

•  Lindsay Lohan is guaranteed at least one award this year. [MSNBC]

A final shout out to the Features department this year as a trio of stories tackle those slaving away on Final Draft and Movie Magic.

Steven Gaydos first talks to "Ratatouille" scribe Brad Bird about due respect to animation writers, while David Cohen draws parallels between "Atonement" and "The Kite Runner" on another front.

There is also a great piece from Cohen's upcoming book, "Screen Plays: How 25 Scripts Made It to a Theater Near You -- For Better or Worse."  Cohen talks to screewnriter and novelist Michael Cunningham about the differences between writing for the page and writing for the screen.

And of course, how can the round-up be complete without an Oscar quiz?  How savy are you when it comes to Oscar's history with screenwriters?

Sean Penn's "Into the Wild" led the BFCA nominations tally today with seven tips of the hat, including nods for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay and, of course, a spot in the group's top ten list.

Jason Reitman's "Juno" wasn't far behind with six nods, while "Atonement," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men" and "Sweeney Todd" each managed five.

The morning's announcement was a huge boost -- nay, a shot in the arm for "Wild," one of a trio of Paramount Vantage hopefuls in this year's race.  Combined with a number of key mentions in yesterday's Chicago Film Critics nominations and the fact that, as far as I can tell, no film has ever solely led the BFCA field and missed out on a Best Picture nomination with the Academy, I'd say the Sean Penn effort is looking better than ever for a slot in the big five come January.

"Juno"'s tally of six was also exactly what Fox Searchlight's comedy hopeful needed to silence nay-sayers regarding its Academy potential.  It's clearly a formiddable contender.

Surprises included Best Actor mentions for Ryan Gosling ("Lars and the Real Girl") and Viggo Mortensen ("Eastern Promises"), as well as supporting actress berths for Catherine Keener in "Into the Wild" (a quiet contender this season) and Vanessa Redgrave in "Atonement" (for all of five minutes of screentime).

Casey Affleck, meanwhile, grabbed some more steam for his supporting portrayal in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," perhaps on his way to securing the same nod with the Academy.  And Amy Adams finally makes a significant appearance this awards season for her performance in "Enchanted."

A definite nod of note is Cate Blanchett's citation for Best Actress in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age."  It might perhaps be read as Oscar tea leaf reading on the BFCA's part more than anything, given how critically reviled the film was, yet how undeniably Academy friendly the performance might still be perceived.

Finally, six composers were allowed room to wiggle in that category, including the first notices of the season for Marco Beltrami ("3:10 to Yuma"), Clint Eastwood ("Grace is Gone") and Alan Menken ("Enchanted").

The BFCA tends to be the best precursor for predicting the eventual Oscar turn-out, mostly due to a list of ten Best Picture contenders and a willingness to nominate across a wide spectrum of categories.  This year they seem to have spread the wealth evenly enough to have a decent prediction percentage yet again.

The BFCA's ten Best Picture nominees (with vote totals):

"American Gangster" (2)
"Atonement" (5)
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (4)
"Into the Wild" (7)
"Juno" (6)
"The Kite Runner" (2)
"Michael Clayton" (5)
"No Country for Old Men" (5)
"Sweeney Todd" (5)
"There Will Be Blood" (3)

The full list of nominees can be found on the BFCA website.  The awards will be broadcast live on VH1 on Monday, January 7, 2008, LIVE at 9:00 p/m. (e.s.t.).

The Envelope's Tom O'Neil hustled me to the fringes of last night's "Sweeney" soirée to talk the Oscar race.  Here's the mp3.  Mind you I had just zipped over there after taking a final that had capably knocked the wind out of me, so who knows what I said.  Good news is I was only on beer #1.

Tom also got Johnny Depp and Stephen Sondheim on the record.

The New York-based National Board of Review has announced its list of award winners for the year, kick-starting the precursor circuit on the march through the 2007 film awards season.

The Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men" took the Best Picture prize, leading a top ten list that included somewhat surprising mentions for "The Bourne Ultimatum" and "The Bucket List."

George Clooney won the Best Actor award for his performance in Tony Gilroy's "Michael Clayton," while Julie Christie took down Best Actress for her portrayal in Sarah Polley's "Away from Her."

Casey Affleck ("The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford") and Amy Ryan ("Gone Baby Gone") won in the supporting categories, while Tim Burton was named Best Director for "Sweeney Todd."

The last NBR Best Picture winner to miss a nomination from the Academy was "Quills" in 2000, and "Gods and Monsters" before that in 1998.  With "Charlie Wilson's War" coming up short (though some would argue this point), the film looks better for placement with AMPAS now than it did when it only had critics championing the cause.  Oh the give and take of Oscar season.

Winners from the press release:

Best Film: "No Country for Old Men"
Best Director: Tim Burton, "Sweeney Todd"
Best Actor: George Clooney, "Michael Clayton"
Best Actress: Julie Christie, "Away from Her"
Best Supporting Actor: Casey Affleck, "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Ryan, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Foreign Film: "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly"
Best Documentary: "Body of War"
Best Animated Feature: "Ratatouille"
Best Ensemble Cast: "No Country for Old Men"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actor: Emile Hirsch, "Into the Wild"
Breakthrough Performance by an Actress: Ellen Page, "Juno"
Best Directorial Debut: Ben Affleck, "Gone Baby Gone"
Best Original Screenplay (tie): Diablo Cody, "Juno" and Nancy Oliver, "Lars and the Real Girl"
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "No Country for Old Men"

The top ten (in alphabetical order):
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford"
"Atonement"
"The Bourne Ultimatum"
"The Bucket List"
"Into the Wild"
"Juno"
"The Kite Runner"
"Lars and the Real Girl"
"Michael Clayton"
"Sweeney Todd"

Top five foreign films (in alphabetical order):
"4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days"
"The Band's Visit"
"The Counterfeiters"
"La Vie en Rose"
"Lust, Caution"

Top five documentary films (in alphabetical order):
"Darfur Now"
"In the Shadow of the Moon"
"Nanking"
"Taxi to the Darkside"
"Toots"

Top independent films (in alphabetical order):
"Away from Her"
"Great World of Sound"
"Honeydripper"
"In the Valley of Elah"
"A Mighty Heart"
"The Namesake"
"Once"
"The Savages"
"Starting Out in the Evening"
"Waitress"

Career Achievement: Michael Douglas
William K. Everson Film History Award: Robert Osbourne
Career Achievement in Cinematography: Roger Deakins
The BVLGARI Award for NPR Freedom of Expression: "The Great Debaters" and "Persepolis"

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

•  Gregg Kilday catches up with the notion that voters might cling to something up-beat in the midst of 2007's downer slate.  Ya think? [The Hollywood Reporter]

•  Anthony Breznican talks to Best Actor hopeful John Cusack about the failure of war films this year and his role in the upcoming "Grace is Gone." [USA Today]

•  David Halbfinger reports that "'The Kite Runner' boys are safely out of Kabul." [New York Times]

•  Who says the "Atonement" campaign is quiet?  Mark Salisbury talks to star James McAvoy. [Los Angeles Times]

•  So does Tom O'Neil. [Gold Derby]

•  Ramin Setoodeh, meanwhile, chats with Keira Knightly. [The Gold Digger]

•  And Sasha Stone counts herself a fan, says the tables are finally turned with a man being "the object of lust and desire."  Easy, now... [Awards Daily]

•  David Carr attends the New York premiere of "The Golden Compass." [The Carpetbagger]

•  David Poland reviews "Sweeney Todd" again. [Movie City News]

•  Nathaniel Rogers sits down with the great Max von Sydow, who's working it hard for "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly." [The Film Experience]

•  New York Magazine points out dire box office potential found in Variety's recent revelations. [Vulture]

•  Peter Knegt smacks down a recent Hollywood Reporter story announcing the year of the independents. [indieWIRE]

•  Lou Lumenick rocks out a list of the year's 25 best.  Whatever happened to top TEN lists? [New York Post]

•  Scott Feinberg talks to "La Vie en Rose" star Marion Cotillard. [And the Winner Is...]

I probably wouldn't pass this along if it wasn't such a slow morning, but there's a commenter over at In Contention -- goes by the handle "Aguirre" -- who seems to have this insight or that regarding Wednesday's National Board of Review announcement.  Could just be some dude, of course, but I'll give the space to Aguirre.  Here's what he has to say:

"Ellen Page will win the award for breakthrough...I know for certain that Page's only competition is Amy Adams...

"For reasons unbeknownst to me, the NBR is considering 'Persepolis' only in the animated category at the moment...a clerical error that I don't believe they'll address by the time they vote...

"The Phil Donahue doc[umentary] and 'No End in Sight' are the only docs that have a chance with them...

"Marian Cotilliard [sic] will win...

"'The Kite Runner' will win best picture...the members formed more of a consensus on [that film] and the acting in 'Jesse James' than anything else all year...

"Sorry for all the input, but it's not often i can write about these senseless year-end shenanigans with any confidence."

Indeed, that's a lot of input.  Take it with a grain of salt for now, but we'll know in two days if Aguirre was on the money or not.

I thought I'd waste a few brain cells this morning and dig through all these prognosticative charts to see what the consensus is amongst those of us crazy enough to go on the record with predictions months out from the Oscar ceremony.

For those unaware, there is the Buzzmeter at The Envelope, a group comprised of 21 critics, columnists and awards analysts; the Gurus o' Gold at Movie City News, a smaller group of 14 similar types (with some Buzzmeter overlap); Gurus 2.0, also at Movie City News, a collective of 15 self-starting webmasters and contributors from some other sanctioned outlets not typically considered for their Oscar coverage; and newly formed, the Sultans of Bling at Awards Daily, a unique group comprised of 22 "civilians," if you will, individuals without outlets or platforms beyond comments sections in this site or that (save AW contributors Ryan C. Adams and Sasha Stone).

If you're not tongue-tied yet, I'll continue.

Three of the groups use a ranking system of 10 for their panelists.  A #1 choice gets a score of 10, a #2 a score of 9, etc.  The only group that uses a five-list system is the Buzzmeter, which obviously gives that collective less opportunity to add other titles to the ring beyond their respective top fives.  One might expect, therefore, a lesser amount of films to be represented by the Buzzmeter.  They list 16, but the Gurus o' Gold list a total of 17 films, with each panelist having the opportunity to list up to ten films.  But to be fair, the Buzzmeter also has seven extra members, so it's kind of a give and take.

I tallied up the scores from each of the films predicted for Best Picture today and came to some interesting findings.  First and foremost, "Into the Wild" gets a huge boost (landing in the #6 spot) by being a clear favorite for two groups, Gurus 2.0 and the Sultans.  The main Gurus and the Buzzmeter, however, have the film listed at #12 and #10 respectively.

Many films, of course, are listed across all four groups, but the Sultans, for instance, are the only group to include "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford," "Beowulf," "Control," "The Golden Compass," "I'm Not There," "Lars and the Real Girl," "Ratatouille," "Rescue Dawn" and "We Own the Night."  Of those nine, I don't think it is out of bounds to say at least six have no shot at Best Picture contention, but the unique flavor is certainly welcome.

The Sultans, also, join Gurus 2.0 as the only groups to include "Zodiac" in their lists, while the latter is the only collective to feature "In the Valley of Elah" and "Things We Lost in the Fire."  The main Gurus group, meanwhile, is the only group to list "The Savages."

31 films are represented in total, while the Buzzmeter's 16 are the only ones shared across the board.

Now, let's get to the consensus chart.  Here's the full, ranked list of 31 films predicted for Best Picture by the four prognosticative groups out there on the Oscarweb:

01. "Atonement" (482)
02. "No Country for Old Men" (472)
03. "There Will Be Blood" (248)
04. "American Gangster "(231)
05. "The Kite Runner" (223)
06. "Into the Wild" (188)
07. "Charlie Wilson’s War" (173)
08. "Sweeney Todd" (170)
09. "Michael Clayton" (167)
10. "Juno" (144)
11. "Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead" (114)
12. "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (84)
13. "3:10 to Yuma"(56)
14. "Once" (47)
15. "Zodiac" (34)
16. "Eastern Promises" (16)
17. "Hairspray" (13)
18. "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (12)
19. "In the Valley of Elah" (12)
20. "I’m Not There" (11)
21. "Ratatouille" (7)
22. "Rescue Dawn" (7)
23. "The Savages" (7)
24. "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (6)
25. "Gone Baby Gone" (3)
26. "Control" (3)
27. "Things We Lost in the Fire" (2)
28. "The Golden Compass" (2)
29. "Lars and the Real Girl" (2)
30. "We Own the Night" (1)
31. "Beowulf" (1)

Obviously -- and as if this wasn't clear to begin with -- "Atonement" is the frontrunner for a nomination in this year's Best Picture race, if we're to go by what these collectives have to say.  This seems to have been the case ever since the Venice bow of the film back in September.

Meanwhile, "No Country for Old Men" and "There Will Be Blood" follow right behind, two films that, interestingly enough, are beginning to split some inside and outside of these groups regarding Oscar potential.

Universal's "American Gangster" has seemingly become the prognosticators' film of choice from that studio, while murmurs of "Charlie Wilson's War" being considered a comedy continue to cycle through, amongst other concerns.

"The Kite Runner," clearly an Oscar-bait contender, rounds it out in a list that I truly think will change substantially over the next couple of months.  We'll keep an eye out, but one thing is for sure -- we aren't short on Oscar predictions and opinions this season.

The Weinstein Company, which is understandably searching for a big awards contender amongst likely smaller successes in "Control" and "I'm Not There," will be pulling out "The Great Debaters" for a December release aimed at awards contention, as reported last month.  Well, a trailer has finally arrived (as of Monday, in fact -- been meaning to comment on it ever since).

Produced by Oprah Winfrey and directed by Denzel Washington (who also stars), the film seems to have that golden hue Oscar voters love so much.

Or, rather...that Oscar voters USED to love so much.

I've been wondering, as of late, whether the Academy of today is no longer the Academy Harvey Weinstein so clearly understood in years past.  Tugging those heartstrings, aiming for the "meat and potatoes" voters, a term Weinstein coined, this was the honcho's MO during his hey-day.  But the Academy that took stands for "Shakespeare in Love" and "Life is Beautiful," among others, seems to be a different group than that which has gone on the record for "The Lord of the Rings," "Brokeback Mountain" and "The Departed" in recent memory.

Weinstein himself felt the sting last year when "Bobby," a seemingly tailor-made Academy film that nailed down major nominations from the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and the Screen Actors Guild, failed to make it into Oscar's final five.  Granted, the film hit a big critical snag (I'm one of the few who really enjoyed it), but I also think the critical assessment of today is a touch different than it was in the pre-9/11 era.

And that brings about a whole other can of worms.  Much as I hate to bring an Oscar discussion into that realm, it is worth pointing out the somber nature of cinema en masse in recent years and, especially, in the last ten months.  2007 has been a downer year for the ages.

"Before the Devil Knows You're Dead," "Gone Baby Gone," "In the Valley of Elah, "Into the Wild," "Margot at the Wedding," "Michael Clayton," "No Country for Old Men," "Reservation Road," "There Will Be Blood," "Things We Lost in the Fire," "Zodiac" -- these are not bastions of uplifting cinema.

Even "Beowulf," an exhilerating spectacle of a film, ends on the ambiguous, almost cynical note of perpetual corruption and moral perversion at the highest levels of leadership.

I don't know what kind of fair weather "The Great Debaters" should hope for in the coming weeks as it continues to screen for a critical community that would rather scowl than feel all gooey inside.  But at least it'll assumably have a unique feel-good quotient going for it this season, alongside films like "Juno," "The Kite Runner" and "Once."  When Academy members sit down to vote, they've shown us time and again that there is something to be said for an alternative to the year's emotional status quo.

We shall see...

Paramount Vantage has added costume design sketches and production design sketches of "The Kite Runner" to their VantageGuilds.com website.  Give it a look.  It could go a long way in garnering branch support for the film, or, at the very least, assist in flooding the beat with material for a film that could be warm-hearted enough to push into Best Picture contention.

•  Sasha Stone thinks "The Kite Runner" has the stuff to win Best Picture. [Awards Daily]

•  Through Jeffrey Wells, Universal Pictures publicity clears up rumors concernign re-shoots on awards contender "Charlie Wilson's War." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Tom O'Neil, meanwhile, offers some rumor-busting of his own -- concerning category placement for Helena Bonham Carter in "Sweeney Todd." [Gold Derby]

•  Jason Reitman's "Juno" takes top prize at Rome Film Festival. [Reuters]

•  Vulture's "Oscar Futures" tracks who's up and who's down in the Oscar race this week.  [New York Magazine]

•  David Poland gets lost (and might lose you, too) in the box office numbers of the approaching Oscar season. [Movie City News]

•  Sasha Stone catches up with "No Country for Old Men," points out some Coen humor in the press notes regarding "Roderick Jaynes." [Awards Daily]

•  Yours truly talks to thesps and industry insiders about the logistics of bringing overseas talent to the States for awards publicity. [Variety]

•  Jeffrey Wells has a chat with Best Actor hopeful Khalid Abdallah from "The Kite Runner." [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Mark Olsen has a humorous slip of the tongue regarding the name of our fabulous new digs -- hey, I think it's funny. [The Envelope]

•  Peter Debruge on the Oscar qualifying run of "Romance & Cigarettes" [Thompson on Hollywood]