Yes, the BFCA awards are tonight, but tomorrow brings the most anticipated announcement of the Oscar season: the Directors Guild of America's list of feature film nominees.  According to the DGA's official site, Guild president Michael Apted will make the announcement at 10:00 a.m. (PT).

The DGA has long been considered the best predictor of the eventual Best Picture outcome at the Academy.  Going back over the last 35 years, the Guild has picked 139 of 170 nominees for an accuracy rate of 80% or so.  That's better than any of us "pros" could ever hope to manage, that's for sure.  The Guild has displayed 100% accuracy on nine separate occassions, the four of the last five years being chief among them.  Prior to 1970, the DGA sported 10 nominees for feature films, which makes tallying those totals kind of pointless, but this sufficient chunk of data ought to be enough to persuade you that tomorrow's announcement is an important one.

Tom O'Neil has been collecting predictions from various Oscarweb prognosticators over at Gold Derby, yours truly included.  You can see my black and white take on tomorrow's likely five over there, but let's take a moment to dig into the hopefuls in this space as well.

No one but no one can be considered a shoo-in except for the Coen brothers, whose "No Country for Old Men" has shown up this naysayer by already displaying some grit last month, taking down two Screen Actors Guild nomiantions.  (Critics awards just don't compute for me as great indicator of an industry award.)  Beyond that, it's really a free-for-all.

Sean Penn has been getting stellar reactions at DGA screenings of "Into the Wild," a film already leading the way at the BFCA and SAG.  One would have to consider the actor/director to be on solid ground.

Ridley Scott is a helmer clearly revered by his guild, taking down nominations in some cases that didn't correspond to Best Picture nods ("Thelma & Louise," "Black Hawk Down").  "American Gangster" was the only film to be making any box office headway until "Juno" came around, and two SAG nominations (in surprising categories) indicate industry love for the product.

Speaking of "Juno," Jason Reitman's film has been unfairly relegated to consideration as "the 'Little Miss Sunshine' of 2007," when that's really not a computeable comparison.  Nevertheless, naysayers have been left mouth agape as the film has taken some major monetary strides on its way to potentially securing the light-hearted slot of the season with AMPAS.  Reitman's showing up here tomorrow should come as no surprise if it comes to pass, especially given all those TV directors in the guild with ties to actors like Allison Janney, Jason Bateman and Jennifer Garner.

There is a real opportunity for spoilerific things to happen, I think, outside of these strong potential candidates.  Tim Burton, for instance, has already nabbed a nomination from the BFCA and a win with the National Board of Review for helming the screen adaptation of "Sweeney Todd."

Denzel Washington, meanwhile, has seen his film, "The Great Debaters," met with standing ovations at DGA screenings.  But then, who wouldn't stand for Denzel?

Julian Schnabel's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" has been a critical darling throughout the precursor season, but did his Los Angeles antics while promoting the film leave a bad taste in voters' mouths?

Any number of peripheral surprises could pop up, from James Mangold ("3:10 to Yuma"") to Tony Gilroy (one to really watch for "Michael Clayton"), even Sidney Lumet ("Before the Devil Knows You're Dead"), a nominee here even when ignored by the Acadey ("Serpico," "Murder on the Orient Express").  David Fincher could even make good on a year-end rally of support for "Zodiac."

The real spoiler to watch, however, might just be Paul Thomas Anderson, whose "There Will Be Blood" has been the talk of the town, at least for the past two weeks.  A nomination tomorrow could be the first real step toward Best Picture aspirations, as an endorsement from the DGA has proven itself to be a telling seal of approval indeed.

But the safe bet always seems to surface, no?  Which leaves us with the very real possibility that Joe Wright could slide in for "Atonement," a film that lost steam after the festival circuit and a strong HFPA showing, but is still lingering in the mix nonetheless.

What do I know, right?  Whatever happens tomorrow, it still ain't the end of the road.  Crazy things happen, like Christopher Nolan grabbing a mention for "Memento" in 2000 or Robert Zemeckis sliding in for "Who Framed Roger Rabbit?" in 1988.  You just never can be too sure, so we'll have to see what the directors have in store for us in the morning.

Anton Corbijn's "Control" screened again last night for the SAG Nominating Committee, and the reaction was pretty exceptional.  Exceptional because nearly the entire crowd waited an extra 30 minutes for actor Sam Riley to show up because his plane had been .  Seriously, maybe ten people out of at least a hundred left the auditorium.

I was moderating, and the only alternative was to sit down up front with the film's uber-cool producer, Orian Williams.  We bandied about something resembling a Q&A whilst awaiting Riley's arrival, and it was good for the crowd to get the background Williams had to offer.  Then Sam shuffled in, jet-lagged with luggage in tow.

"Hello everybody!"

Cheers and applause, naturally.  They love this guy.  He's eminently likeable, has a superb sense of humor, and even though he was just fine folding shirts over a year ago, he's been a sport with the awards campaign particulars.

Anyway, I've done a lot of these things, and it's pretty special for a crowd to wait this long to hear an actor -- an unknown, at that -- speak about his or her performance in a film.  We didn't wrap up until at least an hour after the film's credits had rolled, and that's unusual to say the least.

Riley had just flown in from New York, where his girlfriend, Alexandra Maria Lara (who also stars in the film) had just atteneded the premiere of "Youth Without Youth."  One attendee afterwards told the young actor that "Control" might be "one of the best films [he's] seen in years."  Let's see if that love translates throughout the awards season.

There is no question that "No Country for Old Men" is a critical smash.  The result, has been a collective opinion that the film has a green light for a Best Picture nomination.  Some even think it's locked in the #1 slot.

To be sure, I've been skeptical since day one, but I won't emboss those thoughts here.  I will, however, point out that other awards analysts out there on the Oscarweb have expressed their own concerns at the film's chances, and not on the basis of quality, mind you, but on the basis of demographic appeal within the ranks of the Academy.

Well, the film screened at the Academy yesterday afternoon.  One individual, a guest at the well-attended screening, told me today that "people just got up shaking their heads" following the film's admittedly chilling ending.

The attendee said the screening was going well for the first hour or so, but that the final act induced a certain level of shock that did not read as the positive sort.  And, the attendee notes, there was very little applause over the film's credits.

There were also, apparently, walkouts.

Granted, this is just one perspective, and sometimes these things can be read in different lights.  Whatever the case, it appears the Academy was not climbing over themselves to anoint "No Country for Old Men" as their #1 film of 2007, or perhaps even one of their top five, as the critical community would seemingly have us believe.

Todd Haynes was on hand last night for a rather intimate screening of his latest, "I'm Not There."  It was my first time seeing the film, which has been on the festival circuit since Telluride back in September.  I don't think I can even begin to qualify it.  I'm pretty sure it's an undeniable work of art, but beyond that, I need time to let it soak in and, most assuredly, I'll need another viewing.  I didn't even mosey over to Haynes during the reception because, quite frankly, I have no idea what I would have said to him.

In any case, my opinion isn't what's important.  What IS important is how floored the viewers in attendance were.  There was even a cryer.  Yeah, a cryer.

Michael Mann was in attendance, said he enjoyed the film, and spent quite a while making the rounds during the reception.  Most enthusiastic, however, was Ben Foster, who could not contain his sheer glee, not only at "I'm Not There," but at what he calls a "great year for movies."  He had recently come from seeing the Coen brothers' "No Country for Old Men," which had him on a high to go along with the Chivas Regal he was throwing back.

Foster said he thought filmmakers were finally giving in to silence and stillness in the cinema this year, an insight I hadn't previously stumbled onto, what with my declarations that it is simply a downer year at the theaters.  This notion of filmmakers taking their time with audiences, forcing serenity into the frame and allowing for a sort of marination, I think Foster is on to something.  And truly, the guy's enthusiasm is infectious.

Excitement over Hayne's Dylan-inspired work dominated the scene, however.  I also bumped into Jack Coleman ("Heroes"), who kept bouncing back and forth about his favorite sequences, favorite performances, etc., with another equally excited viewer.

Indeed, "I'm Not There" seems to be one of those films that becomes more of an experience than a passive exercise in observation.  It'll be interesting to see if last night's enthusiasm translates during the Oscar season.

I've just been told that the WGA/Back Stage screening of "There Will Be Blood," taking place over at the Television Academy on Lanksershim as I type, had people waiting in line at 9:30 this morning.

A number of hours before the 7:00 screening was to begin, there was a line of 50.

When publicists began arriving at 6:30, the number waiting in line had grown to 300.

By the time all had been admitted, 600 people were in attendance and only 20 were turned away, because the screening had already begun and due to the obvious fact that the house was packed......wow.

Judd Apatow is moderating the Q&A that will follow the screening, and I'm told Maya Rudolph, Jonah Hill and Seth Rogen are all in attendance.  The P.T.A. groupies are apparently going nuts and when the "There Will Be Blood" opening title hit the screen, the whoots and hollers started in.

Wait until that baptism sequence.  I bet they wet themselves.

It was fitting that the first major guild screening of "There Will be Blood" took place last night at the WGA theater on Doheny Blvd., considering Daniel Day-Lewis' Daniel Plainview character was based largely on oil mogul Edward Doheny (in whose Beverly Hills home the film's climactic final scene was shot).

The crowd was a mixture of numerous guilds: WGA, SAG, ASC, and, of course, press.  Applause lit up the joint upon the film's closing credits, with notable rounds swelling up for Day-Lewis' credit and, interestingly, Robert Elswit's.

When moderator David Ansen introduced Paul Thomas Anderson for the Q&A, half the crowd lept to their feet in a standing ovation.  At first sight, it seemed the film was a hit, but I looked around at those who weren't standing, and they included many older guild members, as well as at least one notable Oscar-nominated producer who sat in front of me and seemed to be scowling as he patiently awaited the noise to settle.

Indeed, the third act clearly confused a considerable portion of the crowd, leaving a great number unsettled.  I talked to a SAG member outside during the reception who said the film was "a bit much," though there was no argument from her that the performances were outstanding.

Personally speaking, the film settled very nicely on a second viewing, filling in a few of the cracks I noticed upon an initial look, embossing other areas that remain bothersome to me (notably Paul Dano's performance, though he shed some light on this when addressing the notion that he was hired to take on the role of Eli Sunday at the last minute when the first actor wasn't up to the task).

Day-Lewis was the treat for the crowd, which showed grand affection for the actor's work both during the movie (via applause and laughter) and during the Q&A.

It was good to take in some critical responses afterward.  CHUD's Devin Faraci seemed to be a big fan, but wanted a second viewing before committing a review to print.  Jeffrey Wells told me one critic asked him, puzzled, "You saw it a SECOND TIME??"

Yes, it seems there might be a critical split waiting to happen, just as appeared to be the case with the guild members in attendance last night.

Tonight will be the first real industry test for Paul Thomas Anderson's "There Will Be Blood."  It screens at 7:00 for the WGA, followed by a Q&A with Anderson, Daniel Day-Lewis and Paul Dano.  I'll be sure to report back with the overall reaction.

Tom O'Neil is talking Oscar for ThinkFilm's "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" over at Gold Derby, but seems unsure about what to really expect for the film come January.

Well, not for nothing, but a voting member told me today that when the film showed at the Academy this weekend, there was plenty of applause for Sudney Lumet's directorial credit, but nothing much at all for Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Ethan Hawke.  Then another uproar came for Marisa Tomei.

For what it's worth...