Oscar Blog

Predictions

December 4, 2007

Predictions! Everywhere!

Johnny Depp moved up a few nothces this week in The Envelope's Buzzmeter standings, but I was pretty stoked to see Casey Affleck bounce back into the supporting actor field.  It seems most people are pretty confident in nominations for Javier Bardem ("No Country for Old Men"), Hal Holbrook ("Into the Wild"), Tom Wilkinson ("Michaely Clayton") and Phillip Seymour Hoffman ("Charlie Wilson's War"), with a fifth slot up for grabs.

Personally, I think the last slot will come down to Affleck, Paul Dano ("There Will Be Blood") or the real performance to watch, Philip Bosco ("The Savages").  Affleck wins the day this week.

Elsewhere, Julian Schnabel muscles his way into the Best Director consensus and "The Kite Runner" takes a step up the ladder.

Also, I neglected to mention the Gurus 2.0 assessment last week at Movie City News, which holds tight to an "Into the Wild" Best Picture prediction, as well as Tommy Lee Jones in Best Actor ("In the valley of Elah").

Oh, and the Sultans of Bling over at Awards Daily checked in with thoughts on the acting, cinematography and film editing races last week as well (where Christopher Rouse gets some play for "The Bourne Ultimatum").

November 19, 2007

Another one of these things?

Well it looks like Awards Daily has jumped into the prognosticative charts racket, offering up "The Sultans of Bling."  The participants are all readers and "civilians," as contributor Ryan C. Adams calls them, many of them perusers of the Awards Daily forums, no doubt.

My first thought was, "You've got to be kidding me," but it's true that the objectivity you find in "amateurs" (as the media so callously dubbed passive Oscarwatchers in recent years -- a term with an unnecesssary negative quotient more often than not) can many times lead to a more accurate assessment of the eventual awards fallout than even the sanctioned outlets of the scene.  Then again, the "Sultans" do have "There Will be Blood" firmly at the #3 spot, what they might see as a knee-jerk, fanboy reaction upon finally viewing the film (a film I'm on the record as kind of digging).

Anyway, give it a look.  Another group of voices has joined the pot.  They should grow a set, however, and tackle the technical categories since neither the Buzzmeter nor the Gurus o' Gold seem to care or, at least, be willing.

The Sultans of Bling Introductory Article
The Sultans of Bling Introductory Charts

November 8, 2007

11/8 Oscarweb Round-up

•  Sasha Stone ponders whether "Beowulf" is being overshadowed by Angie's star. [Awards Daily]

•  Pete Hammond buzzes "longshot" Oscar possibilities, including Will Smith in "I Am Legend," of which he asks, "Is there any prognosticator out there who has even broached the idea of a Smith nomination this year?"  Uh, yeah.  This one, actually. [The Envelope]

•  Tom O'Neil on pregnancy as marketing power for Cate Blanchett and Helena Bonham Carter. [Gold Derby]

•  Jeffrey Wells on Oprah Winfrey (therefore, "The Great Debaters"), not being phased by a lack of TV publicity due to the WGA strike. [Hollywood Elsewhere]

•  Lou Lumenick thinks the Dec. 26 DVD release of "Eastern Promises" could bolster Viggo Mortensen's Best Actor hopes. [New York Post]


October 25, 2007

Is Del Toro still on 'Fire' in spite of it all?

Susanne Bier's "Things We Lost in the Fire" opened last week to rather lackluster reviews, but why does it seem like no one is giving Benicio Del Toro the time of day out there on the Oscarweb?  This seems like a bona fide threat in the lead actor field if there ever was one.  Lingering, emotive scenes; a detailed and painful heroin withdrawal sequence that recalls Gene Hackman's committment in "The French Connection II;" something actually unique in the sort of role given to derivation -- what else do we really need?

Jeffrey Wells -- steeped in his own bias, of course -- has proclaimed it written in stone that Del Toro is a contender, but everyone else seems to be all "George Clooney this" and "Daniel Day-Lewis that."  Three of 15 Gurus o' Gold are predicting the performance for a nomination, and I suppose we'll see what The Envelope's Buzzmeter collective has to say on the matter next week.

Del Toro's portrayal reminded me of something James Dean might have tackled had he lived ten or fifteen more years, perhaps a role that would have introduced him to another level of maturity as an already accomplished actor.  Jerry Sunborne feels like Jim Stark or Cal Trask with a few decades of regret and life experience under his belt.

Paramount Pictures is pretty serious about making sure the film is seen, despite a rather modest drop in the critical and box office bucket last weekend.  They sent screener copies to guild members, Academy members and the press corps day-and-date of the film's theatrical release.


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Kristopher TapleyRed Carpet District is Variety contributor Kristopher Tapley's attempt at making sense of the ever-expanding glut of film awards coverage. He's been on the beat for six years. Email Kristopher Tapley

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