The number of films opening over Christmas is enough to make your head spin. Then again, it's the merriest time of the year in terms of moviegoing, and even better than summer in terms of concentrated grosses. The multiple for a film is usually two or three times its opening take; it can be five for a year-end holiday title.

If there's one studio that Christmas could make or break, it's United Aritsts and by extension, MGM. Bryan Singer's Tom Cruise starrer "Valkyrie" is risky, especially since it doesn't have the hallmark of a holiday title, according to exhibitors. A Nazi is a Nazi, even if he is plotting to kill Hitler. Hats off, however, to Terry Press and Mike Vollman's sophisticated and shrewd marketing campaign.

Some also speculate that Will Smith drama "Seven Pounds" could mark the end Smith's record run at the box office, considering it's not a "happy" storyline, but I'm not so sure. 

Smith's pic opens Friday, along with Jim Carrey's "Yes Man" (a sort of "Liar, Liar" in reverse). Folks think both films will do good biz this weekend. Things are more iffy for toon "The Tale of Despereaux."

Five films open nationwide on Chrismtas day (gulp)--"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," "Bedtime Stories," "Marley and Me," "The Spirit" and "Valkyrie." There's no lack of stars; Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Adam Sandler, Jennifer Aniston, Owen Wilson. Oh yeah, and Cruise. The next day, Kate Winslet-Leonardo DiCaprio drama "Revolutionary Road" opens in a limited run, followed by Emma Thompson-Dustin Hoffman pic "Last Chance Harvey) and Ed Zwick's "Definance."

Disney's "Bedtime Stories" should win Christmas weekend, since it's a family film. After that, it's a toss up. Fox's "Marley" has the advantage of being based on a best-selling book, but "Button" has Pitt and director David Fincher. Fanboys will go for Lionsgate's "Spirit," while "Valkyrie" will target both adult women and men. 

This discussion doesn't even include the award hopeful expanding significantly over the holiday--"Slumdog Millionaire," "Gran Torino" and "Frost/Nixon, among others.

Your thoughts?

Here's a visual snapshot: