July
13Shockwaves at the Box Office
So far the prognosticators have had a rough time. Many were bearish about the summer, given the absence of any Spidermen or Harry Potters and the fact that the pirates finally had fled the bloody Caribbean.
Well, they were wrong. Summer ’08 thus far has run parallel to the record $4.2 billion summer of ’07, though that may wobble because July will be Potterless (Dark Knight is the best hope to compensate).
Many of the other forecasts also have turned out to be skewed. Some insiders thought Eddie Murphy’s “Meet Dave” might serve as effective counter-programming against “Hellboy II” or “Hancock” (Variety’s own critic wrongly predicted mid-range results) but Eddie bombed -- maybe he was right in stiffing his own premiere last week. (“Hellboy II” had a $35.9M weekend while “Hancock” held well at $33M. Dave registered $5.3M)
Going back a few weeks, forecasters saw big results for "Speed Racer" and were dubious about Robert Downey Jr. as an action star. "Iron Man" has now reached $313.4 million and "Speed Racer" can’t budge past $45 million in the U.S.
Remember the presumed shootout bewteen "Get Smart" and "Love Guru"? It fizzled: "Get Smart" is holding well at $111.5 million while "Love Guru" has just oozed past $30 million.
The big face-off arrives next weekend when the summer’s darkest movie, appropriately called "The Dark Knight," opens against the summer’s most dopily cheerful, "Mamma Mia."
If you believe the Warner Bros. publicity machine, every theater in the U.S. already is sold out for the Batman epic through the end of summer. The fanboys are double-dosing their Ritalin in fervid anticipation, and the critics are assuring us that this isn’t just a superhero story, it’s a morality tale.
"Mamma Mia" has no such aspirations, but its box office prospects are hard to predict. On the downside, says Pam McClintock, Variety’s box office guru, it should do "Hairspray" business -- a $27 million opening in the U.S. and perhaps $118 million ultimatelyBut "Mamma Mia" also has a few special things going for it. It’s the ultimate chick flick. Further the stage show has had mythic success around the world, and the movie is already doing brisk business in a few foreign openings. The big city critics will be orgasmic over the sight of Meryl Streep camping it up.
It’s hard to remember a moment when two such contrasting movies opened against one another. I can visualize the two separate audiences pouring out of their respective plexes -- giddy chicks chatting it up in one stream, somber teens in the other, already text messaging their buddies about the meaning of life.
There are still several important openings later in the summer, so the surprises will doubtless continue. That’s what keeps the box office gamesmanship so intriguing.
And, let’s face it: In this economy when all the charts keep going down, it’s a relief that at least the movie theaters are resisting foreclosure.
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*Moderator deleted, English only please.*
Posted by: Федор | 2/1/2009 8:14:18 PM
Okay is it me or is that last comment not in English?? LOL
Posted by: last comment | 9/16/2008 11:44:06 AM
mamma mia is allready doing well over seas. In fact it has all ready made its money back...Wake up people...this is a FUN movie.....enjoy i for what it is!
Posted by: mamma mia | 7/15/2008 2:28:44 AM
im more interested in eastwood, jolie, malkovich.......thats the real winner bart.
Posted by: ares | 7/14/2008 7:22:29 PM
I don't know if the counter-programming of Mamma Mia will work. I've asked my girlfriend if she was interested in seeing Mamma Mia, but I was told she's much more interested in The Dark Knight. It seems that way with most females I talk to.
She loved the stage show, but being that most women who wanted to see Mamma Mia have already seen it in another form, it may not be able to bring them in for this new interpretation.
Then again, it could just be the company I keep.
Posted by: ADRIANO ARIGANELLO | 7/14/2008 3:58:40 PM
Well written Mr. Bart, I must say this has been one unpredictable summer at the movies. Yes the pairing of Dark Knight and Mama Mia is counter-programming at its finest, but what about next weeks offering of the slap stick comedy "Step Brothers" vs. the sci-fi "X-files 2" what another odd pairing. August also looks to be play big with such flicks as Mummy 3, pineapple express and Tropic Thunder.
Posted by: NickFlicks | 7/14/2008 2:26:54 PM
Speed Racer? Puuullleeez! The ads were so bad you knew the movie would be a stinko! And Mama Mia just looks annoying and I'm a Streep fan. Hollywood can do better but seems determined not to.
Posted by: Crystal | 7/14/2008 1:58:48 PM
You guys are insane if you think that Mamma mia is not gonna do well. Even with the dark knight, I think it will do upwards of 40 even 50 million. Just look at the stage show, it is one of the highest grossing musicals even now.
Posted by: PHIL | 7/14/2008 12:58:19 PM
I can't begin to follow the act that is George of the Zorba Remake, but I would add that I don't see how "Hairspray"'s business could be considered a downside possibility for "Mamma Mia". I'd frankly be amazed if it were as successful as that, as it has no young names and the music will mean nothing to the young girls that flocked to 'Hairspray".
Posted by: alex x | 7/14/2008 9:54:39 AM
Look, Peter, I'm not going to argue that box-office results shouldn't mean anything... but do they have to mean everything?
Just imagine if classics like The Wizard of Oz and Citizen Kane had been judged exclusively (or almost exclusively) on their opening weekends, or their B.O. returns of their initial release.
But, I realize that unlike many other publications, many Variety readers actually do have a financial stake in the movies, so I don't expect this will change.
Posted by: B.O. skeptic | 7/14/2008 8:38:15 AM
Dear Mr. Bart,
if I may. Entirely different subject. I have a new screenplay for Zorba the Greek. DeNiro (Zorbas), the British actor who got caught with the Hollywood hooker (forgot his name) Catherine Deneveaux and a Greek actress to play the Greek herdess.
My e-mail: george.beotes@web.de
Can you help me???
Posted by: george | 7/13/2008 6:12:38 PM