September
4Hollywood Confronts its Great Divide
The front-page story in the next weekly Variety, however, focuses on the giant gamble Hollywood studios are placing on three mega-movies, which will ultimately represent an investment of perhaps $1.2 billion in production and marketing costs.
When you consider these two stories, you have to ask yourself: Why do people keep talking about the movie business as if it were a single unified business? This is an industry that has clearly split into two sectors that have very little to do with each other. OK, they’re both about film – it stops there.
The mega-movies clearly comprise the sexier story. As Anne Thompson points out, the biggest gamble is Fox’s “Avatar,” Jim Cameron’s CGI/3D/motion capture/live action/whatever – a zillion-dollar adventure in technology that may or may not be released a year from December (the release date has been juggled a few times).It’s not hard to figure why Fox would gamble again on Cameron. His previous Fox film, “Titanic,” melted down an entire studio regime but burned up the box office. The supreme irony about “Titanic,” of course, was that, despite all the buzz about technology, the film succeeded as a tender love story. Cameron -- a chilly, distanced technophile -- nonetheless mobilized (and lucked into) the perfect cast and even the perfect score at the perfect time.
No one doubts Cameron will master his techie innovations on “Avatar,” but the big question is: Will he again come up with the magic equation of cast and story? No one knows what the cost will be – the budgets will doubtless be divided into all sorts of studio buckets – but insiders guess it’s reaching toward the $300 million mark. Fox insists on $200 million.
Then there’s the vaunted, much delayed “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” at Paramount, in which Brad Pitt ages backwards. This is a David Fincher project, which means it will be superbly directed and very, very long. Again, the budget is a matter of folklore – is it $180 million or $220 million? Only the budget-makers know for sure, and even back when I was at Paramount the studio deftly shifted numbers from one budget to the next to suit quarterly needs and neuroses.The big question: Fincher delivered a superb film in “Zodiac,” but it grossed only $84.7 million worldwide. Will “Button” prove more accessible?
Finally Thompson described the traumas of the Spike Jonze picture “Where the Wild Things Are,” which apparently was shot once, then mostly shot a second time. Again, no one knows its true cost, but Jonze is an art house filmmaker making a mega budget movie.
When you examine projects like these, you quickly realize why more companies like Warner Bros. have shut down their indie units to focus on the big numbers. Arguably, the “specialty” film business ran into trouble because the studio folks muscled in – production and marketing budgets started soaring. And so did expectations.
That’s why the folks heading to Toronto have more realistic expectations. Their audience is loyal but limited. Some of the players, like James Schamus, have also proven that art movies, like their blockbuster cousins, can play to an international audience as well.
With each passing year, the two businesses – megapics and minipics – have become increasingly divergent in terms of strategy and spending. The big movies keep getting bigger, the little ones must keep getting smaller to survive.Personally, I’m heading for Toronto. One needs too strong nervous system to survive in big-bucks Hollywood. Besides, the Canadians are more polite.
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Mr. Bart, you put it perfectly. If there isn't a
beating heart inside 'Avatar'
all the effects in the world
won't save it.
If Fox wants 'Titanic'
grosses (if both senses of the word), there'd better be
more than meets the CGI.
Posted by: SCOTT CHELMOW | 9/10/2008 6:45:18 AM
Love your columns, love shootout
Posted by: paul | 9/6/2008 11:00:56 PM
Peter:
a loonie is a Cdn 1 dollar coin. a toonie is a 2 dollar coin.
Posted by: gretsky | 9/6/2008 6:51:46 AM
Peter:welcome to toronto,eh.
Posted by: canuck | 9/6/2008 6:47:18 AM
I'm with you Bart-Man
Posted by: Rockwell | 9/5/2008 1:37:51 PM