June
23Box Office Predictions are a Humbling Craft
Variety was the first newspaper to publish box office results, but now media worldwide carries the data – and some even venture into predicting the winners and losers. The end product is, at best, undependable.
Case in point: the Los Angeles Times’ weekly “projector” forecast the first weekend of “Iron Man” at $60 million (it grossed $102 million). It said “Sex and the City” would open to $30 million (it did $57 million), and the first weekend
for “Speed Racer” would be $25 - $30 million (it bombed at $18.2 million).
In reminding us of errant forecasts, Pam McClintock, in weekly Variety, also observed that film trackers have also had a dicey time lately. Their biggest problems lie in films like “Speed Racer,” which are shrewdly marketed and tend to achieve high recognition ratings – but then hardly anyone shows up at the theaters.
Talk to veteran film marketers and they’ll agree on one fact: Theirs is a humbling craft.
Case in point: the Los Angeles Times’ weekly “projector” forecast the first weekend of “Iron Man” at $60 million (it grossed $102 million). It said “Sex and the City” would open to $30 million (it did $57 million), and the first weekend
for “Speed Racer” would be $25 - $30 million (it bombed at $18.2 million).In reminding us of errant forecasts, Pam McClintock, in weekly Variety, also observed that film trackers have also had a dicey time lately. Their biggest problems lie in films like “Speed Racer,” which are shrewdly marketed and tend to achieve high recognition ratings – but then hardly anyone shows up at the theaters.
Talk to veteran film marketers and they’ll agree on one fact: Theirs is a humbling craft.
Subscribe to Peter Bart's Blog Feed
Post a comment