Moving the bar for hits

TV's lower ratings means a change in game plan

By STUART LEVINE

If John Wells was offered a redo, he'd probably opt to launch "Smith" this season rather than three years ago.

The heist drama co-starring Ray Liotta, Virginia Madsen and a pre-"Mentalist" Simon Baker, "Smith" premiered in 2006 with a 3.6 rating in the 18-49 demo for CBS.

That, ultimately, wasn't good enough for the Eye back then, but today it would be considered a very promising start.

As fewer viewers watch their favorite programs on the night they air -- opting instead to catch up later on DVRs, online or via DVD collections -- broadcasters have accepted the fact that ratings are shrinking every season. As a result, shows that might've been considered a failure only a few seasons ago could be seen as a success today.

With the fall season rolling out this month, broadcasters will be analyzing the data and trying to determine exactly what it takes for a new show to be considered a hit.

"The yardsticks have changed from year to year, and decade to decade," NBC scheduling chief Mitch Metcalf says. "There's been downward pressure on ratings, but in analyzing, you always end up going back to old-fashioned metrics; how is the show doing in the time period vs. the competition, does it grow quarter to quarter and, what's increasingly important, the measurement of upscale viewers."

For NBC, it's really all about the demo and the income of its audience. "As we move ahead to rebuild NBC and the brand, upscale educated viewers are incredibly important and a big target for us," Metcalf continues.

Looking back at last season, Fox's "Fringe" ended up with the best 18-49 rating for a rookie (4.2), according to Nielsen, followed by CBS' "The Mentalist" with a 4.0. But these hits rated roughly half as high as the top shows of just five years ago: ABC's "Desperate Housewives" and "Lost."

So what are the expectations for this season? Many execs don't want to get specific, but the general consensus is that there is high expectation for dramas "NCIS: Los Angeles" on CBS and "FlashForward" on ABC and comedies "Community" on NBC and "Modern Family" on ABC -- and success would likely mean a demo rating in the mid- 3 to 4 range.

Of course there's also a DVR component to the equation. More than one in every three homes now possess a digital video recorder, and ratings releases finessed by networks are quick to use "live-plus-seven" numbers to include all same-week DVR playback and thus paint the rosiest ratings picture.

Last season, Fox could easily have canceled "Dollhouse" (and its 2.0 rating); after all, "Moonlight" on CBS was canceled after its original episodes averaged a 2.5 in the same Friday timeslot just one year earlier. But "Dollhouse" gets a substantial amount of viewers in same-week DVR playback, and Joss Whedon's fan base is loyal.

Outside of Fridays, however, for the new season, it will be hard for nets to offer a positive spin on any show that garners less than a 3.0, which may be the unofficial barometer of what's working and what's not.

"I just can't see anyone saying anything below that could be considered a hit," says a ratings guru at one of the nets.

What must also be considered though, is playability for a show beyond the immediate ratings. Keeping a series on the air despite questionable numbers, execs look to see how the show plays overseas and what the DVD prospects are -- monies that help offset ever-rising production costs.