Monday shows off moves this fall

Night has potential to shake up ratings race

By RICK KISSELL

Is "Big Bang" poised for a bust-out season? Is two hours of "Dancing With the Stars" too much? Does "Heroes" have anything left in the tank?

These are some of the questions that will be answered this fall on Mondays, an evening that has its share of top-10 shows but lacks the sizzle of other weeknights.

Outside of NBC's five-night "Jay Leno Show," only two skeins debut on the night this fall -- CBS half-hour "Accidentally on Purpose" and NBC drama "Trauma" -- and neither is a keeper.

But shaking things up are a handful of shows that have changed time periods: a pair of CBS comedies, a drama each on NBC and Fox, and both of CW's dramas (which have swapped slots).

Toss that into the blender and you have a night where every net but NBC should have something to smile about.

In the fourth quarter last year, CBS was the leader in key demos while ABC held the edge in total viewers. That should remain this fall (and CBS could grow), although keep an eye out for Fox, which has the best chance to improve.

An overlooked element of Monday is ESPN's "Monday Night Football," which can always be counted to win among men and -- as happened often last season -- could also prevail among adults 18-49.

Here's a look at Monday night this fall:

ABC

It's another lineup of less-than-stellar stars (admittedly a subjective observation), but that hasn't hurt "Dancing," which enters its ninth edition and appears to be taking on a "Survivor"-like ratings trajectory: It may have seen its best days, but most of the aud comes back for the next season.

This means a victory in total viewers and a likely second-place demo finish.

Padding "Dancing" to two hours for its entire run is a bit of a concern, especially since there's already a bloated hourlong results show the following night. But for skedding purposes, it makes sense to go from "Dancing" to 10 p.m. drama "Castle" instead of trying to shoehorn in a comedy at 9:30 as in years past.

The light and comedic "Castle" is a clear crime alternative to incumbent 10 p.m. leader "CSI: Miami." And without an NBC drama, more young women may opt to check out what was probably ABC's best new series of last season.

CBS

The big news for the Eye is the move of hit laffer "The Big Bang Theory" from 8 to 9:30 p.m., while former 8:30 skein "How I Met Your Mother" kicks off the night at 8.

Look for "Big Bang," which this summer has been consistently building on lead-in "Two and a Half Men" in adults 18-49, to retain roughly 95% of "Men" this fall. This would make for TV's strongest hour of comedy and should give the aging "CSI: Miami" a stronger lead-in and thus a chance to rebound in the ratings.

If there's one downside, it's that taking "Big Bang" out of the leadoff slot, replacing it with the not-as-strong "Mother" and then sliding the new "Accidentally on Purpose" at 8:30 will weaken the opening hour. But CBS is rolling the dice a bit here, hoping that a stronger 9-11 p.m. makes up for earlier losses.

As for "Accidentally," if the title itself isn't enough of a turnoff, the show simply doesn't work. I see "Rules of Engagement" warming up in the bullpen.

NBC

"Heroes" is still one of the net's top-rated programs but it has dropped off sharply and is now being asked to open the night. It's hard to imagine it doing a whole lot better than "Chuck," which aired at 8 p.m. on the night last season.

And its lead-out, the generic paramedic drama "Trauma," is a new version of "Third Watch," only not as good -- despite its impressive explosions-per-hour ratio.

(And note to NBC: What's with the nondescript one-word titles? It gives credence to the theory that the net has just given up.)

At 10, "The Jay Leno Show" could pick up "Monday Night Football" auds flipping around at halftime, which starts most weeks around 10:10 p.m. ET., but it figures to place third among the broadcasters.

This was one of NBC's best nights last fall -- winning in adults 18-34 -- but the Peacock takes a big drop this time.

Fox

It's taken a while, but the net seems to have settled on a permanent slot for top drama "House." As it did the second half of last season, "House" will kick off this night and should be able to prevail in all key demos.

Fox is also placing a lot of confidence in "Lie to Me," tapping Shawn Ryan ("The Unit," "The Shield") as its showrunner and sliding it in at 9 p.m. behind its No. 1 drama.

"Lie to Me" is a good fit with "House," and has a chance to surprise in this timeslot -- the only big weeknight without a dominant crime drama at 9.

So one season after settling for fourth place among the broadcasters with its lineup of "Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles" and "Prison Break," Fox is poised for much bigger things.

CW

The flip-flop of "One Tree Hill" (now airing at 8) and "Gossip Girl" (now at 9) seems designed to get "Girl" away from the likes of "House" and cable's "Secret Life of the American Teenager" in a bid to grow its aud in season three.

It will be tough for "Hill," which is undergoing some major cast changes entering its seventh season, to stay as strong kicking off the night as it was at 9 p.m., but this show has reinvented itself before during its improbable run. And Robert Buckley ("Lipstick Jungle," "Privileged") is a great addition in the absence of outgoing series star Chad Michael Murray.

CW will once again be competitive among the 18-34 crowd, and could win its two-hour block in women 18-34.

Bottom line

CBS should prevail in demos this fall, but keep an eye on Fox, which could end up on top by season's end.