Lead Actor: Drama

Laurie looking to capture first win

By JON WEISMAN

Cranston

With five returning nominees, you'd think Emmy suspended the suspense for the lead drama actor competition. But like the genre, plotlines in this category go deeper than they first appear.

You only have to go back a year to find the unexpected as few outsiders foresaw Bryan Cranston winning. The debut season of "Breaking Bad" was truncated by the Writers Guild of America strike, and he was up against widely lauded AMC teammate Jon Hamm of "Mad Men."

Cranston's upset, followed by a strong second season, at once makes him the one to beat this year but also raises the question of whether Hamm, now arguably an underdog, can reverse last year's result.

For that matter, none of the other contenders should be counted out. The sole newcomer -- Simon Baker of CBS' "The Mentalist" is holding up the procedural flag -- is also the sole candidate from TV's most popular network and eminently likable. Gabriel Byrne's profile has risen with the increased industrywide appreciation for HBO's "In Treatment."

And then there's the (relatively) old guard: Michael C. Hall of Showtime's "Dexter" and Hugh Laurie of Fox's "House." Hall's nomination history dates back seven years to his "Six Feet Under" days, but the thesp has never won and can say he's overdue. Laurie is now a four-time nominee for "House" but has similarly drawn blanks from the Acad.

In a tight race, certainly some voters will lean their good tidings toward those who wait. But will it be enough? Welcome back, suspense.

SIMON BAKER
Show: "The Mentalist"
Emmy pedigree: First nom
Best Scene: Baker's Patrick Jane goes from distrustfully angry to chillingly relieved when a psychic tells him his daughter was asleep when she was murdered and did not suffer.
Why he might win: He's the freshest face on the ballot, and "The Mentalist" had more viewers than any other rookie series on television.
Maybe not: In substance, his performance might be considered lightweight compared with his competition.

GABRIEL BYRNE
Show: "In Treatment"
Emmy pedigree: One nom
Best Scene: Byrne's Paul Weston effectively pleads with patient April (Alison Pill) to stop caring only for others while denying herself treatment for cancer.
Why he might win: A Golden Globe winner in January, Byrne earned even greater notice in the second season of "Treatment" for his mastery of this role, which required him to be in virtually every scene of the show's 35 episodes this year.
Maybe not: In the end, will the Acad reward an actor who spends most of his time sitting down?

BRYAN CRANSTON
Show: "Breaking Bad"
Emmy pedigree: One win plus three other noms
Best Scene: In a series that consistently tests the morality of its lead character, Cranston almost seems to stop time as his Walter White internally deliberates ... before choosing not to save the life of the problematic girlfriend of his partner, Jesse.
Why he might win: After scoring something of an upset in the 2008 Emmys, Cranston is anything but an underdog following his commanding performance in the second season of "Bad."
Maybe not: Voters might conclude he went too dark in season two, or they might simply desire to spread the kudo wealth.

MICHAEL C. HALL
Show: "Dexter"
Emmy pedigree: Two noms
Best Scene: Dexter's internal dialogue, unsettling but in a bizarre way touching, as he decides to kill a sex offender who has shown an interest in his girlfriend's young daughter.
Why he might win: Despite coming up empty after noms for both "Six Feet Under" and "Dexter," Hall is recognized as a powerhouse deserving of honors.
Maybe not: The buzz around "Dexter" has started to fade.

JON HAMM
Show: "Mad Men"
Emmy pedigree: One nom
Best Scene: In an encounter with his secret first wife in California, Hamm lets his character shed all of his encasing shell, coming clean as someone who seems to be only "watching" his own life.
Why he might win: Some were taken aback that Hamm didn't triumph last year, and by revealing more of Don Draper/ Dick Whitman's vulnerable side in the second season of "Men," he might have convinced remaining doubters.
Maybe not: It's not as if fellow AMC leading man Cranston backslid following his '08 Emmy.

HUGH LAURIE
Show: "House"
Emmy pedigree: Three noms
Best Scene: Rather than escape safely after being held hostage by a gun-toting patient (Zeljko Ivanek) who has a mysterious illness, House gives the gun back to prolong the crisis, so that he might diagnose what the man's ailment is.
Why he might win: The longest-running bridesmaid in this category remains utterly dynamic, and this season may have been the skein's best in a while.
Maybe not: If the Emmy hasn't come for Laurie on "House" already, perhaps it's just not meant to be.