Why he'll win: It was a great year for Downey, with "Iron Man" being a gigantic box office hit and all the plaudits he earned for his off-the-wall take in "Thunder." Last year's turn in David Fincher's "Zodiac" proved he's one of Hollywood's most talented thesps and can handle any genre right now with aplomb.
Maybe not: It's tough enough for an actor to be nominated for a role in a comedy, and even more difficult to win. It happens about every 10 years or so in the supporting actor category, and Alan Arkin just won two years ago for his crabby grandpa in "Little Miss Sunshine."
Critical quote: "All but stealing the show, Robert Downey Jr. is not merely funny but also very good and sometimes even subtle as Kirk Lazarus, an Australian actor who has won five Oscars and has surgically dyed his skin to transform himself into a black man. So committed is he to this role that he remains in character at all times, seemingly convinced that he is actually black," says Roger Ebert of the Chicago Sun-Times.
Contact Stuart Levine at
stuart.levine@variety.com