Honors from the Golden Globes, BAFTA and Hollywood guilds don't hurt, but it's Oscar that translates to foreign box office. After Academy Award noms are announced Jan. 22, international distribs will map out game plans for this year's crop, which have widely varying strengths and vulnerabilities.
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button" is probably the big Oscar dog internationally, poised to take advantage of Brad Pitt's star power plus awards prestige. "Slumdog Millionaire" would seem like a tough sell: a little film, without a name cast, that's in Hindi and English. But the critical praise and the awards attention have boosted the film's international profile and will prove a major selling point.
At first glance, "Milk," "Frost/Nixon," "Doubt," "Gran Torino" and "Revolutionary Road" also would seem to have a hard time, due to their idiosyncratic -- and very American -- stories. And these titles are often handled by a hodgepodge of local distribs rather than a single entity that can craft a unified marketing campaign. But each also has major selling points.
"Button" has gotten off to a good start for Warner Bros. -- which releases it overseas, while Paramount has it domestically -- since the pic grossed $8 million in its first overseas dates, in Australia and New Zealand.
"Button" has a gradual release pattern, bowing in Mexico and Brazil Jan. 16, followed by Germany Jan. 29 before hitting most other major markets in February. Warner's is making a major push with premieres in London, Berlin, Paris and Tokyo.
"Slumdog," which has already taken in $8 million very early in its international release, is a bit of an X factor as it expands into key markets such as France on the Jan. 16-18 weekend and India on Jan. 23. It's gone with early releases in Australia with $1.5 million and Italy with $2.4 million after a month.
"Both local distributors felt the film was an ideal December release and would capitalize on the sustained buzz surrounding the film since the Telluride and Toronto screenings," notes Mike Runagall of Pathe, which handled foreign sales. "In Italy, the local distributor, Lucky Red felt the film would play strongly as counter-programming to the local Christmas comedies, and in Australia the release was brought forward one week from its original date to get the film out ahead of the pack of Boxing Day titles."
If Paramount were to push the American-suburbs angle of "Revolutionary Road," it would hit a dead end internationally. But Par is, not surprisingly, instead touting the reunion of "Titanic" stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet.
"We had an international junket in New York before Christmas with all the talent present and will be having another one in London Jan. 19-20," notes Par Intl. topper Andrew Cripps. "Our major international premiere is in London on Jan. 18, with Kate Winslet and Leonardo DiCaprio in attendance."
The launches for "Road" are clustered around the Oscar nominations announcement. It opened Jan 15 in Germany, followed by France, Australia, Spain and Japan on the weekend of the Oscar announcements. Russia, Brazil, Italy, Mexico and the U.K. debut the following weekend.
With "Frost/Nixon," Universal can start the buzz in the U.K., where David Frost and Michael Sheen are well-known and the property has cache due to its London legit origins. The Brit launch will go the day after Oscar noms.
In other markets; the drama's going to be aimed at upscale older audiences and set to exploit the Oscar buzz rather than any memory of Richard Nixon. The key weekend is Feb. 6, with launches in Germany, Russia and Italy.
"Frost/Nixon" launched its foreign run in Oz on Boxing Day and grossed a solid $1 million in its first three weeks from a limited release of 71 playdates in Australia and New Zealand.
"Milk" opened Jan. 9 in Spain in its first foreign market with a very respectable $500,000 in a limited release for U, which also has Australia and Latin America. Prospects are decent, partly since pics with gay themes, such as "Brokeback Mountain," which grossed nearly $100 million outside the U.S., have shown plenty traction in the past.
With "Gran Torino," the selling point is Clint Eastwood, though many key markets such as France, Germany and Italy won't even open until after the Oscars are presented. The combo of Eastwood and a best picture Oscar helped "Million Dollar Baby" become a solid hit overseas, with $120 million.
WB will launch "Torino" in Australia on the day that Oscar noms are announced. Australia is a popular starting point for Oscar films, since it's widely regarded as the territory that most mirrors the domestic market -- to the point of it sometimes being referred to as the 51st state.
Two big Oscar hopefuls -- Disney-Pixar's "Wall-E" and WB's "The Dark Knight" -- have fairly limited prospects of capitalizing on awards, since they've largely completed their foreign runs. "Dark Knight" has racked up nearly $1 billion in worldwide grosses and will no doubt add overseas coin from its re-release, with launches set to start in late January, followed by going into every region in February.
After racking up $304 million outside the United States, "Wall-E" is playing only in Japan, where it's generated $35 million in a month.
Best picture winners often chalk up their biggest tallies after winning the Oscar, such as "The Departed" with $160 million, "Million Dollar Baby" and "No Country for Old Men," $86 million. "Departed" had an action-filled plot, but "Baby" and "Country" were iffy prospects in many countries until Oscar gave them a seal of approval.
Contact Dave McNary at
dave.mcnary@variety.com