Festival Shootout

Due partly to the falling dollar and studio post-strike belt-tightening, the U.S. presence here is more subdued than usual, but the American films that are here are grabbing a disproportionate amount of attention.

The May 18 preem of "Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull" was sure to upstage every other film, including those in the fest lineup and the market. (The Paramount pic is an Official Selection, but not in Competition.)

The runner-up for attention is Universal's "Changeling," which boasts the intriguing combo of Clint Eastwood and Angelina Jolie, and which was getting good buzz in advance of its May 20 bow. In the market, the most talked-about project is Steven Soderbergh's two-part Che bio, "The Argentine" and "Guerrilla," both in Spanish.

Any studio specialty arm or indie distrib interested in acquiring North American rights to the Che pics will be looking at minimum guarantee of at least $10 million to $15 million, plus a hefty marketing commitment.

It's difficult to imagine that the Che Guevara biopics won't be bought -- there are rampant rumors that the Weinstein Co. or Warner Bros. were, or are, in exclusive negotiations, though Warner insiders say the studio isn't bidding.

Since the Cannes Film Fest is three events rolled into one -- a market, a high-art film festival and a launchpad for studio pics it's impossible to assess the event's overall mood.

As for the market, buyers are skittish after a glum fall and spring for arthouse titles (Variety, May 12-18). But in the past month, a double whammy has increased everyone's anxiety in the early days of the market. The first was Warner Bros.' decision to fold Picturehouse and Warner Independent. And the second was the airing of financial woes at Capitol and ThinkFilm, with Screen Actors Guild and then IATSE shuttering Jake Gyllenhaal film "Nailed" during production, while a line of companies are demanding money long owed them by Capitol-ThinkFilm.

These were ominous signs as the market got under way. Most markets start with buyers and sellers complaining that things are slow, but things quickly pick up. Cannes marketgoers, however, are traditionally upbeat. But not this year.

The specialty film market seems to be dividing between the foie gras projects like the Che duo (which cost more than $60 million to produce) and the arthouse films that cost less than $10 million to make.

The Che pics, like last year's "There Will Be Blood," represent a new class of titles that are too costly for a traditional limited release but need slowly simmering word of mouth, meaning a wide release is tricky.

"If you are looking at a big-budget movie, where does that put you in terms of managing your risk? It's just turned plain strange out there," one studio specialty distrib says.

Already, as at the Sundance fest, the first Cannes films to sell were smaller pics: Magnolia's genre label Magnet picked up Jennifer Lynch's "Surveillance," a SXSW leftover, while IFC Films acquired Arnaud Desplechin's dark family drama "A Christmas Tale," starring Catherine Deneuve. IFC chief Jonathan Sehring is "bullish" on this year's market and plans to continue to shop aggressively. The indie distrib, which releases pics both theatrically and day-and-date via video-on-demand, acquired 10 films out of last year's Cannes.

The irony may be that the pricey "What Just Happened?," which failed to sell at Sundance, may get a new lease on life if it plays well here -- and sell for a fraction of its original asking price. Several specialty distribs are lying in wait.

In addition to the Che duo, buyers at Cannes will keep close tabs on James Gray's "Two Lovers" and Charlie Kaufman's feature directorial debut "Synecdoche, New York," which Kaufman also penned. Neither of those movies were cheap either, costing upward of $15 million each to produce. Specialty distribs say either of those could require a wider release to properly recoup.

Among the smaller pics for sale here are James Toback's doc "Tyson"; the Israeli animated doc "Waltz for Bashir"; "Tokyo," an omnibus film featuring three pics including one by Michel Gondry; "Look at Me," from director Agnes Jaoui; Paolo Sorrentino's "Il divo"; and Walter Salles' "Linha de passe."

Roadside Attractions' Howard Cohen is chasing foreign-language fare that has a chance to be distinctive. Miramax's "The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" and Sony Pictures Classics' "Persepolis" did well out of Cannes last year, while IFC's "4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days" was a tougher slog theatrically with its intense subject matter.

In the festival selection, no films emerged early as must-sees. A fest needs only two great titles to be considered a success artistically, and last year, Cannes hit the jackpot with "No Country for Old Men," "Persepolis," "Diving Bell" and the eventual Palme d'Or winner, the Romanian "4 Months."

This year, there is positive buzz on some of the films, but the opening pic, Fernando Meirelles' "Blindness," failed to impress and set the tone of wait-and-see.

As for Hollywood, there is a lack of the tantalizing 20-minute previews that livened up past festivals ("Lord of the Rings," "Dreamgirls," "The Golden Compass").

With the world press assembled, Hollywood has learned in the last decade that this is a chance to tout its best ("Mystic River," last year's "No Country") -- or to fall flat on its face (as "The Da Vinci Code" did a few years ago), with a deluge of press coverage, photo ops and TV footage.

And though "The Da Vinci Code" was roundly ridiculed -- even the after-screening party got terrible reviews -- a bad reaction on the Croisette doesn't necessarily translate into a poor B.O. showing. The audiences ignored the reviews, and the film ended up grossing $758 million worldwide.