WAITING IN THE WINGS: Studios are betting auds will look beyond the sequels and franchises that pop up in spring and summer. Besides those megatitles, the release sked in the coming months also includes smaller films like '21.'
By now, it seems likely the 2008 versions of Hollywood's megatentpole franchises -- James Bond, Harry Potter, Indiana Jones, Batman, the Incredible Hulk and "The Chronicles of Narnia" -- will succeed at the box office.
Half a dozen other 2008 pics look good -- "Speed Racer" and "Iron Man" should have enough fan recognition to succeed, particularly since both are being slotted in prime openings in early May; George Lucas' "Clone Wars" should manage to attract the massive "Star Wars" fanbase for Warner Bros.; Sony's latest Adam Sandler comedy, "You Don't Mess With the Zohan," appears ready to perform; and Sony's high on a pair of Will Smith films, "Hancock" and "Seven Pounds." The studio's optimism is probably justified, given Smith's sterling track record on fare as varied as "I Am Legend," "I, Robot" and "The Pursuit of Happyness."
The studios have high hopes for several well-recognized franchises, notably Univeral's third version of "The Mummy," New Line Cinema's "Sex and the City: The Movie" and Fox's second version of "The X-Files." But what's not quite as clear is where the other 2008 hits will come from. Although pic franchises like "Pirates of the Caribbean," "Harry Potter," "Shrek" and "Spider-Man" led the way in 2007, the record-setting numbers came from unexpected places such as "300," "Ratatouille," "The Simpsons Movie," "Knocked Up" and "Superbad."
Disney execs, for example, are seriously amped up about the newest Pixar animated entry, "Wall-E," which opens in late June. The tale of a robot looking for a home doesn't automatically suggest a blockbuster, but then neither did a story about a cooking-obsessed rat named Remy in "Ratatouille," which went on to gross more than $600 million worldwide.
Other animated fare should generate solid grosses from the family market, particularly overseas. Fox's "Dr. Seuss' Horton Hears a Who!" and a pair of Paramount/ DreamWorks animated pics -- "Kung Fu Panda" and a "Madagascar" sequel -- look promising as well.
Two films about Las Vegas appear likely to perform decently. Sony's gambling caper "21" will screen at ShoWest and then open on March 28; Fox's romantic comedy "What Happens in Vegas," starring Cameron Diaz and Ashton Kutcher as a couple who get married without meaning to, has been slotted into Memorial Day weekend.
Fox VP of international sales Craig Dehmel believes that "What Happens in Vegas" can distinguish itself nicely from the megatentpoles that will dominate multiplexes in the early summer season. He's also bullish on M. Night Shyamalan's "The Happening," opening in mid-June and starring Mark Wahlberg in a tale of a family on the run from an ecological disaster, as another effective counterprogrammer.
Shyamalan's most recent entries, "The Village" and "Lady in the Water," haven't shown much traction, but his ability to make mass-appeal thrillers such as "Signs" and "The Sixth Sense" can't be overlooked. "I think 'The Happening' is a real return to form for him," Dehmel says.
Warner Bros. is particularly optimistic about "Get Smart," starring Steve Carell and Anne Hathaway, giving it a prime June 20 slot. Distribution honcho Dan Fellman notes that the trailer, with Carell channeling Don Adams' Maxwell Smart character, has been receiving strong reaction during the past year it's been playing in theaters.
"We've already positioned it for a sequel," Fellman adds.
Besides "Hancock," Sony's counting an array of comedies to follow in the footsteps of Judd Apatow's "Superbad." It has slotted a pair of Apatow entries for summer -- "Step Brothers," with Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly as middle-aged men who are forced to live together, and "Pineapple Express" with Seth Rogen and James Franco as a spectacularly clueless pot dealer. "We think 'Pineapple Express' is really going to hit big because it's so out of the box and so hysterical," notes distribution head Rory Breuer.
Sony's also gone the counterprogramming route in early May with "Made of Honor" with Patrick Dempsey and Michelle Monahan in the leads. And late in the summer, it's launching the offbeat "The House Bunny" -- formerly "I Know What Boys Like" -- with Anna Faris, Rumer Willis and Katharine McPhee, in the tale of a woman evicted from the Playboy Mansion for being too old.
Paramount pins its hopes for a comedy breakthrough on "The Love Guru," with Mike Myers back for the first time since "The Cat in the Hat." Par Intl. prexy Andrew Cripps believes the combo of an easy-to-understand concept, broad physical comedy and Myers' star power, demonstrated via the "Austin Power" trilogy, will translate to a worldwide hit.
Par's also bullish on late-summer comedy "Tropic Thunder," about a war movie gone awry, with Ben Stiller, Jack Black and Robert Downey Jr. Cripps notes that Stiller's shown impressive drawing power outside the United States in such fare as "Night at the Museum" and "The Heartbreak Kid."
The parade of possible comedy hits includes a pair of April entries from Universal's eclectic slate: George Clooney's period piece "Leatherheads" and the romantic comedy "Forgetting Sarah Marshall."
Contact Dave McNary at
dave.mcnary@variety.com